Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs
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- canetracker
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs=12z GFS is Rolling in
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif
GFS still like the wave behind 92L better at 60 hrs
72 hours
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif
I wonder if the GFS could be underestimating 92L as satellite presentation does not have it looking bad?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif
GFS still like the wave behind 92L better at 60 hrs
72 hours
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif
I wonder if the GFS could be underestimating 92L as satellite presentation does not have it looking bad?
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs=12z GFS is Rolling in
The models don't have a good handle on this yet, the convection just blew up this morning and we don't even have an LLC fix yet!
With a mid atlantic ridge strengthening and building west I think the track will end up south of the big islands (assuming 12N initialization).
That will keep everybody tense, since they will likely be on the strong side of the storm.
With a mid atlantic ridge strengthening and building west I think the track will end up south of the big islands (assuming 12N initialization).
That will keep everybody tense, since they will likely be on the strong side of the storm.
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- canetracker
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs=12z GFS is Rolling in
At 84 hr affecting the islands.
500 mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084l.gif
90 hr
96 hr...92L falling apart?
Last edited by canetracker on Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- canetracker
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs=12z GFS is Rolling in
102 hr 92L falls apart but another storm approaching. I do think the GFS will pick up on this better in future runs.
Since this thread is for 92L will switch to long range model runs in talking tropics
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- x-y-no
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Re:
Scorpion wrote:It's possible this could simply be under the GFS' radar.. I remember it barely showing Felix as a closed low.
Yes, I think that's the story. I won't be at all surprised to see all three develop, with 92L taking a Caribbean track and the next one potentially heading for the east coast, or possibly offshore recurve.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs
msbee wrote:
Luis, that one looks way too close for comfort, right?
Barbara
I believe, excluding the extrapolation straight line and the climatology model, all those are inititialized from the GFS and also have boundary conditions set by the GFS. Shallow, Deep and Medium BAM models close together just means the GFS sees similar steering shallow through deep, meaning it predicts low shear. Wait for the NoGAPS, Euro, Canadian (which over develops, but doesn't seem terrible on track of established systems) and UK Met. If all the models, not just the GFS fed models are close, than, too close for comfort.
In my humble and amateur opinion.
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Yeah agreed Ed we need to see what the other major models are doing. The thing with this one is unlike pre Dolly this one actually does look forming further east which should mean it will get further north then that feature.
GFS does have a little bit of a habit of taking systems too quickly to the north at times and under-estimating ridges which should be taken into account.
GFS does have a little bit of a habit of taking systems too quickly to the north at times and under-estimating ridges which should be taken into account.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs
I believe, having seen it in discussions, there is a version of the GFDL model run off the NoGaps instead of the GFS, but I have no idea where one can find the 'GFDN' model on the world wide interweb.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs
12z UKMET has 92L moving thru the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico,then to the Bahamas.
Code: Select all
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
10.5N 43.4W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2008 10.5N 43.4W WEAK
00UTC 11.08.2008 11.2N 44.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2008 11.5N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2008 12.1N 48.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2008 12.8N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2008 13.0N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2008 14.7N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2008 15.4N 58.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.08.2008 17.7N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2008 18.6N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2008 19.4N 66.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2008 21.2N 68.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2008 23.6N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs
I believe it develops slowly into something on the mm5fsu 8/10 run, moving NW past Puerto Rico at 120 hours.
[url]
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu33 ... =Animation[/url]
[url]
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu33 ... =Animation[/url]
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- x-y-no
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Re:
KWT wrote:UKMO pulls this WNW/NW very quickly as well which is very interesting to see, just about misses the whole of the Caribbean like Frances. We shall see!
I don't see this scenario as likely at all. I think this goes WNW into the Caribbean - no further north than the current BAMM track.
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF
Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF
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