ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[cheezyWXguy]

The first run of SHIPs didn't seem overly impressed with strengthening potential. Not sure why. Perhaps the dry air to its West.

SHIPS is run off of the bam models, which bring the system into the carolina coast, which doesnt appear to be likely, as it is moving very slowly to the NNE. And probably the reason for a bare western side could be that land is cutting off inflow/outflow, much how south america is cutting off 94L's inflow/outflow.

[OuterBanker]

Seems to me that 96L is drifting nne if moving at all. Actually just looks like it's spinning up in place. It should go nowhere for awhile. Not looking good for the Carolinas I'm afraid. Rain would be good, but it will probably just affect the eastern areas of the state. Originally, this was supposed the go from the panhandle north giving central Ga, SC, NC much needed rain. Those areas are probably going to miss out. Now, this has a real chance to spin up. JB is concerned for Ga and mostly NC. He states that there is no reason for this to go inland for at least 60 hrs. I hope he's wrong.

[HurricaneHunter914]

17/1745 UTC 30.5N 80.3W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

They gave 94L 2.5 yesterday, yet they call this system with a good tight circulation too weak. Not bashing, but I think 96L deserves at the least, a 1.0.

[jdray]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 171907
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
307 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT POSSIBLE EASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW SFC LOW OFF
THE COAST NEAR 31N81W WITH TROUGH AXIS SW INTO CENTRAL FL. THETAE
MAXIMUM IS LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL SE GA AREA TO OUR INTERIOR NE FL
ZONES. RADAR HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE 80 DEG
ERN ZONES AND MANAGING THE UPPER 80S OVER WELL INTERIOR ZONES WHERE
MORE SUN IS OCCURRING. UPPER LEVELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT 250 MB
IN NE FL AND SE GA AND LOW TO MID LEVELS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH FROM
OFF THE W CENTRAL FL COAST TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N81W AND
NE INTO OFF THE NC COAST.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY NWD. NAM IS MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER GA WHICH MAY BE CORRECT. IN GENERAL
THE MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT TOO DIFFERENT AND WILL GO WITH A LIKELY
POP NEAR THE COAST N OF JAX FOR TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE INLAND AREAS WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO FILTER IN ON
NELY FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT FOR
MAINLY THE COAST. FRIDAY...SFC LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK UP INTO THE
GA/SC WATERS WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE NEAR AND E OF THE TROUGH WHERE GOOD LIFTING
BELOW 500 MB IS NOTED...BUT NOT MORE THAN 60% CHANCE. NW OF THE
TROUGH AROUND 40-50% CHANCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE POPS SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. IN FACT A FEW SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW MOVING
NNW. HIGHS TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AREA-WIDE SO STILL BELOW CLIMO VALUES. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NNEWD BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DECREASE GRADUALLY. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO CENTRAL FL. POPS AROUND 20-30% PLANNED FOR MAINLY EVENING
HOURS. SATURDAY...FAIRLY MOIST SWLY FLOW AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30-40%. MORE FAVORED AREA
MAY BE SE GA AND THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND THE CONTINUED DECREASING PWAT VALUES LIKELY BELOW 1.8 INCHES.
SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL FL RESULTING IN MEAN
FLOW FROM THE W. THIS WOULD FAVOR A LOWER POP REGIME AND WILL INSERT
20% AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

Looks like this one still needs some model work before they can be sure.
Either way, the rain has a "tropical" feel to it. I just drove home in it.

[KWT]

I agree Derek IMO this could easily become a decent TS if it gets the time to do so over the gulf waters...interestingly even if t doesn't form now it will have a real good chance if it can stay over water or get back over water if it goes inland.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The main difference between this year and 2005 is the invests are not developing into cyclones. Also the sst's are not nearly as hot! So theres a good chance it will be active season but not the extreme. Talk to all you later!

[MWatkins]

The first run of SHIPs didn't seem overly impressed with strengthening potential. Not sure why. Perhaps the dry air to its West.

The biggest negative contributors (in the SHIPS model) are:

Marginal SST's (26 to 27 degrees) through 60 hours or so...but we saw bertha go to town over similar temps...so perhaps the SST's aren't going to be as limiting as SHIPS suggests.

Lack of vorticity at 850MB (again, this could be iffy looking at the 12z model runs...clearly there is some vorticity in the environment based on the fact that this thing exists to begin with).

Lack of upper divergance at 200MB and inceasing shear by 120 hours.

They also put the forecast track on BAMM (which is out at 32/73 in 120)...so that is a bit suspect...don't think it will be that far out by then.

MW

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

its not SST

there are totally different atmospheric parameters

SST is a necessary but not sufficient condition for development. And we have met the necessary threshold this season easily

[KWT]

Yeah Derek Bertha survived over waters down to 24-25C, SSt's are more then high enough esp with the gulf stream nearby, I wonder how deep the warmer waters go mind you?

Still I think this has a real chance of developing, yep its a little lop-sided but we've seen loads of those sorts of looking systems near land get upgraded before.

[chadtm80]

[category5]

unconfirmed report I heard: JB is now calling for a hurricane off the NC coast this weekend!

Question: Is this the remnants of the low that moved inland off the west coast of FL yesterday?

[Ed Mahmoud]

unconfirmed report I heard: JB is now calling for a hurricane off the NC coast this weekend!

Question: Is this the remnants of the low that moved inland off the west coast of FL yesterday?

Possible hurricane, and if it does make hurricane, per JB, it'll effect the trough enough to pull itself closer to New England after passing Hatteras. If it stays weak and doesn't start effecting the trouh over the lakes, it'll head NE away from land.

JB is not for sure predicting a hurricane. Just mentioning the possibility.


Reasonable precautions in coastal Carolinas seem prudent, but I wouldn't panic based on just JB.


In my unofficial opinion.

[storms in NC]

unconfirmed report I heard: JB is now calling for a hurricane off the NC coast this weekend!

Question: Is this the remnants of the low that moved inland off the west coast of FL yesterday?

As warm as the waters are I can see a min Hurricane but not off the coast. This will come in at cape fear. JIMO

[KWT]

I tel lyou waht this reminds me a little of Gaston 2004 and that didn't take long to get going over the warm waters that ar epresent. not saying it wil lget as strong a sit has a little less time but itys not totally imposssible for it to be a hurricane if it gets more time IMO.

[brunota2003]

unconfirmed report I heard: JB is now calling for a hurricane off the NC coast this weekend!

Question: Is this the remnants of the low that moved inland off the west coast of FL yesterday?

As warm as the waters are I can see a min Hurricane but not off the coast. This will come in at cape fear. JIMO

Even if it did that, the eastern half would still be over water, which would maintain it's strength all the way up until in moved inland over Onslow or Carteret, then into the Pamlico Sound

[funster]

unconfirmed report I heard: JB is now calling for a hurricane off the NC coast this weekend!

Question: Is this the remnants of the low that moved inland off the west coast of FL yesterday?

As warm as the waters are I can see a min Hurricane but not off the coast. This will come in at cape fear. JIMO

Even if it did that, the eastern half would still be over water, which would maintain it's strength all the way up until in moved inland over Onslow or Carteret, then into the Pamlico Sound

That does not sound like a good situation. Fortunately, we still have an unnamed disturbance at this point.

[HURAKAN]

FROM DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE, FL:

[storms in NC]

Really if it does do any thing at the very most would be barley min hurricane. I think A Strong TS is what will happen which is fine with me all I want is the rain. The sea's can have the wind

[KWT]

Yeah but a minimal hurricane can stil lcause serious issues, lest us forget what Katrina did as a cat-1 on its first landfall!

Right now I don't think it wil get that strong but I do think its got a good chance of development, the highest out of the 3 invests by quite some way at least for now, this really needs to be watched IMO even if it doesn't become too potent. I already said this could be similar to Gaston IMO.

[storms in NC]

Gaston We didn't get much out of that one. We went fishing that day and watched it roll by.