H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[Ivanhater]

regardless..this is close..NHC will make a decision based on the NW wind...may still find a west wind on another pass...

[cycloneye]

SSW wind found.

[Cryomaniac]

NHC will make a decision based on the NW wind.

That's certainly possible.

For some reason this discussion reminded me of the crap last year with the argument about issuing TS watches / warnings before something was upgraded to a TS. Not that I want to open that can of worms again.

[KWT]

Well SSW was found but we need to wait for the next messages to come through because the SSW wind was found on the very last part of the transmission from recon.

[RL3AO]

West wind at a whopping one knot. Flagged as well.

[mikef55]

YEAAA its not a sea breeze or open wave whooot

[Aric Dunn]

i have not been paying attention really today... the last set of minobs .. just showed a drop to winds of 1kt is that a center pass im guessing..

and yeah . and they are heading south ... so yeah that was sw wind

direction of 229

[WmE]

YEAAA its not a sea breeze or open wave whooot

Are you realizing that this W wind is suspect. As of now, it is close, but hasn't got a closed LLC.

[hurricanefloyd5]

YEAAA its not a sea breeze or open wave whooot

yeah no sea breeze but a possible TS!!!!!

[KWT]

Well it is a west wind its just a case of whether the NHC chooses to believe it, if its flagged then probably not but at least we know a general area to watch to see if that happens again.

[Skyhawk]

Flying NW to SE through the center the winds should change from NE to SW. They changed from NW to SE. It makes no sense. A west wind should be found S or SW from the center not SE.

[mikef55]

w/e im sick for the sea breeze talk and all thats all

[Thunder44]

Flying NW to SE through the center the winds should change from NE to SW. They changed from NW to SE. It makes no sense. A west wind should be found S or SW from the center not SE.

I think I made that mistake.

[Aric Dunn]

Flying NW to SE through the center the winds should change from NE to SW. They changed from NW to SE. It makes no sense. A west wind should be found S or SW from the center not SE.

yeah in a well defined system.. when they flew into there they have to determine where the most likely area is for the center.. that thing is probably bouncing around ( like they always to at this poitn)

[MiamiensisWx]

I can see no conclusive evidence that this is not an open wave based on reconnaissance data.

[Aric Dunn]

these are the directions we need ... and have they have found these directions already..

WSW


236.25 - 258.75

W


258.75 - 281.25

[KWT]

Getting close though MiamiensisWx, we've found winds now at 255 which is only 15 degrees from a west wind, I guess thats WSW winds there if thats the case and therefore its quite possible there is a weak LLC there, If we can get a 260-265 then NHC may decide to go for it IMO.

[MiamiensisWx]

Getting close though MiamiensisWx, we've found winds now at 255 which is only 15 degrees from a west wind, I guess thats WSW winds there if thats the case and therefore its quite possible there is a weak LLC there, If we can get a 260-265 then NHC may decide to go for it IMO.

...but there are no NNW or NW winds to the west and north of those readings. That does not suggest a closed LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

the newest minobs..

west winds ..... not strong ... but the system is moving west pretty fast so subtrack that forward motion out and you will get some pretty low wind speeds


261005 006 999 999 03
239005 005 999 999 03
261005 006 999 999 03
267005 006 999 999 0 275005

[WmE]

the newest minobs..

west winds .....

261005 006 999 999 03
239005 005 999 999 03
261005 006 999 999 03
267005 006 999 999 0 275005

All these obs are flagged though FWIW.