ATL: Dolly Model Runs

#41 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:22 pm

12z HWRF text plots show a less northward track posing a more direct threat to the NE Caribbean islands.

12Z HWRF 94L 


HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS) 

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -37.20 LAT: 8.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00 
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -37.60 LAT: 9.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00 
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -38.10 LAT: 9.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00 
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -38.80 LAT: 10.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00 
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -39.70 LAT: 10.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00 
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -40.40 LAT: 10.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00 
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -41.50 LAT: 11.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00 
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -42.60 LAT: 11.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00 
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -43.70 LAT: 11.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00 
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -44.90 LAT: 12.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00 
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -46.10 LAT: 12.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00 
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -47.40 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.00 
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -48.70 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00 
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -50.00 LAT: 13.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.00 
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -51.40 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00 
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -52.90 LAT: 14.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00 
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -54.10 LAT: 14.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00 
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -55.60 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00 
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -57.40 LAT: 15.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00 
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -59.10 LAT: 16.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00 
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -60.70 LAT: 16.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00 
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -62.20 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00

KWT · #42 Postby **KWT** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:23 pm

Indeed exactly what happens with Bertha will make the track either more straight foward or make it much more complicated. Anyway GFDL makes this a strong system, hardly surprising given the good conditions that are in the region. As for track, the high is starting to re-build somewhat by that point as Bertha heads north-eastwards and the weakness starts to close.

KWT · #43 Postby **KWT** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:27 pm

cycloneye, indeed that looks like a real threat to the NE islands and maybe PR as well if it takes a more WNW track from then on. We shall see...as it happens that track is very close to Bertha 96 ironically!

#44 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:29 pm

KWT wrote:cycloneye, indeed that looks like a real threat to the NE islands and maybe PR as well if it takes a more WNW track from then on. We shall see...as it happens that track is very close to Bertha 96 ironically!

One name too late, though

Extremeweatherguy · #45 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:33 pm

HWRF loop...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Strengthens to a Category One Hurricane, but makes landfall in the islands as a strong TS.

Aric Dunn · #46 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:34 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:HWRF loop...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

much weaker than gfdl

#47 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:48 pm

12z CMC...South of Hispaniola

Also has another storm hit the Florida Panhandle to boot...lol

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:52 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 131849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800 080715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 38.2W 9.7N 39.5W 10.1N 41.4W 10.3N 43.7W
BAMD 9.3N 38.2W 9.7N 40.2W 10.2N 42.3W 10.5N 44.7W
BAMM 9.3N 38.2W 9.9N 40.0W 10.4N 41.9W 10.5N 44.2W
LBAR 9.3N 38.2W 9.7N 40.0W 10.2N 42.3W 10.4N 44.8W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 46.4W 10.5N 52.6W 9.9N 59.0W 9.6N 64.4W
BAMD 10.8N 47.4W 11.0N 53.1W 10.9N 59.3W 11.7N 65.8W
BAMM 10.6N 46.9W 10.4N 52.7W 9.7N 58.4W 9.6N 64.3W
LBAR 10.8N 47.6W 11.4N 53.5W 12.0N 59.8W 10.6N 65.1W
SHIP 57KTS 74KTS 80KTS 80KTS
DSHP 57KTS 74KTS 80KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 38.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 36.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 35.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Recurve · #49 Postby **Recurve** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 1:54 pm

HWRF has a cat 1 in 48 hours right? Is the weakening later because of shear?

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:01 pm

SHIP 18:00 UTC forecast. Shear not a problem and RI goes up to 43%.

Code: Select all

             *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/13/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    34    39    41    49    57    67    74    78    80    80    80
V (KT) LAND       25    29    34    39    41    49    57    67    74    78    80    68    42
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    29    30    32    34    38    44    52    61    69    65    41

SHEAR (KTS)       10    11    11    11    10     7     7     5     9     9    14    10    14
SHEAR DIR         84    94    88    70    95   123    89    44    81    85   107   124    97
SST (C)         27.3  27.1  26.9  26.8  26.8  27.0  27.2  27.5  27.6  27.8  28.0  27.6  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   127   125   123   122   122   125   128   132   133   135   138   133   125
ADJ. POT. INT.   126   124   122   120   121   125   130   135   136   139   143   137   128
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -54.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     6     6     6     7     7     8     8     8     9     7    11
700-500 MB RH     73    77    77    75    71    72    67    70    66    65    66    67    63
GFS VTEX (KT)      4     6     9     9     7     9     9    11    14    14    14    14    15
850 MB ENV VOR     0    11    21    37    41    42    53    75    76    70    73    52    32
200 MB DIV        55    76   108    82    88    57    54    67    57    49    49    20     6
LAND (KM)       1370  1390  1378  1314  1242  1056   874   679   541   423   209   -22   -80
LAT (DEG N)      9.3   9.6   9.9  10.2  10.4  10.5  10.6  10.5  10.4  10.0   9.7   9.4   9.6
LONG(DEG W)     38.2  39.1  40.0  41.0  41.9  44.2  46.9  49.8  52.7  55.6  58.4  61.3  64.3
STM SPEED (KT)     9     9    10    10    10    12    14    14    14    14    14    14    15
HEAT CONTENT      19    18    13     9    12    18    30    32    37    46    46  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  594  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  18.3 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  87.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   8.  14.  19.  24.  28.  31.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   6.   5.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   2.   1.   3.   3.   5.   7.   7.   7.   7.   7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   6.   7.   7.   7.   7.   6.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   7.  11.  14.  22.  30.  41.  51.  56.  58.  58.  58.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      4.   9.  14.  16.  24.  32.  42.  49.  53.  55.  55.  55.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 07/13/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  81.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  97.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  78.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  13.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  14.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    43% is   3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    31% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    13% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 07/13/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

KWT · #51 Postby **KWT** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:02 pm

The SHIPS solution is to smash this into land, hardly surprising given that based of the BAM suite which show current set-up that this would hit SA. However chances are it will track inbetween the GFS and the Bam suite.

They also have this as a strengthening hurricane as well by the E.Caribbean.

#52 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:10 pm

12z Euro...South of Hispaniola as well..

Extremeweatherguy · #53 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:17 pm

KWT · #54 Postby **KWT** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:21 pm

Very weak though Ivanhater and I'd imagine if it was stronger it would be a little further north then that. Despite this there is some general agreement on a WNW track and possibly a threat to the Ne Caribbean in 4-6 days.

#55 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:30 pm

972
WHXX01 KWBC 131849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800 080715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 38.2W 9.7N 39.5W 10.1N 41.4W 10.3N 43.7W
BAMD 9.3N 38.2W 9.7N 40.2W 10.2N 42.3W 10.5N 44.7W
BAMM 9.3N 38.2W 9.9N 40.0W 10.4N 41.9W 10.5N 44.2W
LBAR 9.3N 38.2W 9.7N 40.0W 10.2N 42.3W 10.4N 44.8W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 46.4W 10.5N 52.6W 9.9N 59.0W 9.6N 64.4W
BAMD 10.8N 47.4W 11.0N 53.1W 10.9N 59.3W 11.7N 65.8W
BAMM 10.6N 46.9W 10.4N 52.7W 9.7N 58.4W 9.6N 64.3W
LBAR 10.8N 47.6W 11.4N 53.5W 12.0N 59.8W 10.6N 65.1W
SHIP 57KTS 74KTS 80KTS 80KTS
DSHP 57KTS 74KTS 80KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 38.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 36.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 35.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

TheRingo · #56 Postby **TheRingo** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:33 pm

why are the bamm models even used anymore? it seems they tend to track south and west all the time.

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:34 pm

Those are already posted at this same page but thats ok.

#58 Postby **Tstormwatcher** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:51 pm

hmmmmm, this may be one to watch for us on the east coast.

#59 Postby **Blown Away** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:04 pm

SHIPS has 94L at 91mph at 96 hours then 48 mph at 120 hours, shear setting in after 96 hours?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:07 pm

Blown_away wrote:SHIPS has 94L at 91mph at 96 hours then 48 mph at 120 hours, shear setting in after 96 hours?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

As its posted above in this page,shear will not be a problem.SHIP has it slam into Southamerica and that is why you see it go down in winds.

ATL: Dolly Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs=First GFDL Plots

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs

Who is online