INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is a reason for the John Hope rule:

"If a system isn't at least a depression by the time it crosses the islands, it won't become one sooner than the Western Caribbean".


Especially in July, when the South American heat low is strong, even if upper level winds weren't from the West, the strong flow from the East creates shear by accelerating the system, and the strong flow also limits convergence.


Short lived curiosity, at least until the Western Caribbean, or, more likely, the East Pac.


Disclaimer: The above short lived curiosity yada yada is unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K

[Category 5]

Not easy times ahead for the little guy.

[deltadog03]

Ya poor guy!!! night night!

[cycloneye]

This will be the real issue from this,Rain.Martinique Radar:

[RL3AO]

its an invest because the Navy must think it has a chance of becoming a TD so I hope the TUTT works its magic on this one since it is too close to land for comfort.

NHC deals with invests in this part of the world, not the Navy.

[Gustywind]

This is an invest now? Wow. I wasn't really expecting that. It will definitely be something to watch, and even if it does not develop, it looks like the future path may bring it close enough to FL for some enhanced rainfall across the state in about 4-6 days.

It won't develop. It's only a short lived MCV under high upper level shear. The threat is localized heavy precip in the E Caribbean.

It probably doesn't develop in this basin, but if it stays below about 17ºN, watch out East Pac!

How funny you are , no words for that....the "threat is for us" in East Car . Tkanks for yours replies Ed Mahmoud and MiamiensisWx, sometimes some people should imagine how it's not easy to live on an island, and protect our life...but when i read some replies as Extremeweaher it's awfull and stupid never mind!!!

[fwbbreeze]

[cycloneye]

Gusty,lets take it easy please.

[Gustywind]

Gusty,lets take it easy please.

As usual my friend but sometimes that's easy for some for... not for other, but we know that

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... 2205500.pn

Ltest from Guadeloupe radar...Rain over Martinica,and the system seems torun in my direction???

[canegrl04]

If conditions were more favorable in the central Atlantic,we would be facing a full on assault from the tropics right now and its only July

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... 205500.png
SORRY HERE THE LATEST

[KatDaddy]

Did not see this one coming. I have been in lurking mode for Invest 92 but this is a little closer to home.

[MiamiensisWx]

If conditions were more favorable in the central Atlantic,we would be facing a full on assault from the tropics right now and its only July

An identical statement can be said for every July during each season. I would breathe deeply and exhale slowly.

[cycloneye]

If there would not be a TUTT trough in Caribbean now,I would got to have my shutters out for a doubleheader.

[KWT]

To be fair though 92L is a little uncommon for early July...as for this invest not quite so much really we have seen past systems form here at this time of year, the freak show that was Dennis 05 for example.

What I would say is just be thankful shear is the way it is in the Caribbean right now. I wonder where this wave will track through the Caribbean, could give some good storms over the islands and maybe Florida and the gulf of mexico states over the next week.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/radar/guadeloupe/TFFR-400KM-20080702205500.pn

Ltest from Guadeloupe radar...Rain over Martinica,and the system seems torun in my direction???

Hey Huc the latest forecast of the pro mets of Meteo France is anticipating heavy precip in Martinica with scattered thunderstorms, added with fool weather, grey and very moist. Seems that the system wants to churn near us as you well resumed it, waouw, ready of another boombing night , hope no...

[KWT]

gustywind, I think the main thing that is going to come out of 93L is some decent precip for some of the islands and maybe some thunderstorms.

[Gustywind]

Yeah KWT tkanks, that's what they' re anticipating in Martinica slightly less in Guadeloupe, but hope no more than the intensity of the latest huge wave of june ( end of remember amazing lightning and strong rumbling). Whereas Martinica should take a nice bath given the radar of Meteo france. Hopefully we're not in August or September conditions would allow for much more than a "simple Invest"....

[HUC]

Hey Gusty,i think for some TStorm to night. the shear should deccelerate the system somewhat,and foce it to turn a little to the Nwest.. the south of our islands should be more cocern...BUT THAT IS ONLY MY MODEST OPINION......