TC Bertha

[gatorcane]

First of all I'm still convinced that the overall convection will slowly diminish as it moves west....that should allow it to move West for several days as a depression or strong tropical low. Second I don't see any rapid strengthening to allow an early recurve.

I think we cannot say a FISH storm here by any means folks. Way too early to call. In fact I am plotting a just south of west movement over the past 24 hours. The Azores high is very strong at the moment. Ridging is also very strong across the north tropical atlantic as suggested by African Dust making it as far west as the GOM over the past week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

First of all I'm still convinced that the overall convection will slowly diminish as it moves west....that should allow it to move West for several days as a depression or strong tropical low. Second I don't see any rapid strengthening to allow an early recurve.

I think we cannot say a FISH storm here by any means folks. Way too early to call. In fact I am plotting a just south of west movement over the past 24 hours. The Azores high is very strong at the moment.

Over on the models page, 12Z SHIPS suggests rapid strengthening. Not that that is always correct.


Edit to add: just read Chacor's post on RI. Oooops.

[gatorcane]

The RI index for oceanic heat content is missing. SHIPS is way overdoing the projected intensity in my opinion and spins this up too quickly.

[Chacor]

Yeah, Ed, I was caught out by it too, but two runs in a row of 999% made me suspicious, then I noticed the warning the OHC input was missing.

[NDG]

I agree with you that we should not call this a fish storm so early, but I disagree in that I think that it will intensify over the next 3 days or so, I am not sure about RI, will gain some latitude, start weakening as it approaches 40W and once it starts weakening it will start moving westward once again, but I do see that chances of getting into the Caribbean are very low, north of the islands looks more likely.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Was checking back through climo and from 1851-2007 could find only 1 storm that formed within 500nm of where 92L is in July. That was Ceasar in 1990. Ceasar tracked NW and out to sea. Bertha formed near 10N/34W - much farther west. When I expanded the search to all named storms developing within 100nm of 11N/20W in all months since 1851, I get the tracks in the image below. Only one storm that formed so far north and east in 1973 managed to reach land.

I recall watching TWC's tropical update in 1996, and I remember thinking Bertha came off Africa looking very close to being a TD already. Since it seems to me that TPC/NHC is cautious on systems far from land not to upgrade too quickly, Bertha I was probably a TD further East than current best track.


As far as path, we shall see what we shall see.


Disclaimer: We shall see what we shall see is an unofficial forecast, and not endorsed by Storm2K.

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

Very impressive, 92L has to thank the previous couple of waves that dented out the SAL near the CV islands!

[gatorcane]

The NHC outlook indicates it is not biting on SHIPS. It predicts only possible slow development with a W movement of 15 to 20mph over the next couple of days.

[gatorcane]

Here is where TAFB thinks this system will be in 72 hours (see X with arrow on right-hand side of image).

[Gustywind]

Very impressive, 92L has to thank the previous couple of waves that dented out the SAL near the CV islands!

Convection is deep and continues to be maintained not a simple wave right now!

[Gustywind]

The NHC outlook indicates it is not biting on SHIPS. It predicts only possible slow development with a W movement of 15 to 20mph over the next couple of days.

So gatorcane do you tkink it could pass close to the Leewards Islands? . For me it would be very near us, the strong ridge will not allow of a recurve,...

[Fego]

Good looking wave/invest. Here a close up... also an extra behind, IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

SAL comes from the east not thw west

the waves ahead of this one did NOTHING to disrput the SAL

[NDG]

SAL loop clearly shows that previous vorticities or cyclonic circulations with the previous tropical waves which came off Africa a lot further north changed the positioning of the SAL by the time this wave came off earlier this morning.

[HouTXmetro]

This far out it has to be a fish right?

[brunota2003]

Heh...12 years later, looks like Bertha wants a make over.

I will say it definitely looks impressive, and seems to have gotten slightly better organized, looking at all the saved images on the previous thread.

[Derek Ortt]

half hourly imagery is available on the NRL website

[cycloneye]

Will this take the 1996 track of Bertha or more northward than this.

[Meso]

The path of the storm will all depend on how rapidly it intensifies and also how strong the ridge is.There's no real set way to tell that if a storm forms at a certain area the more likely it is to recurve, I'm assuming this idea is given since storms have a longer time in which they are able to intensify and thus curve.Will all depending on strength of storm and whether there are any weaknesses in the ridge and how strong the ridge is, as far as I know.

That said, GFS pretty much nailed this so far.Amazing to see how models can forecast something even slightly right when the clouds hadn't even started to develop.

Looking amazing so far, hopefully this will get going and give something entertaining to track.