Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[KWT]

Looks a lot more impressive then this time yesterday with far better convective coverage as well, looking good I've seen far more pathetic looking systems then that get upgraded before.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder what the feature is that extends Northeast from the possible center, with storms firing on it. I guess a trough, but as long as it appears attached to a linear feature, I would guess it will be slow to organize.

[CrazyC83]

Not quite there yet.

[curtadams]

The linear feature looks like the ITCZ, being wrapped around the system as it tries to break free. Makes me think it's a ways from an upgrade, since normally nascent systems break the ITCZ behind, then in front, and it hasn't finished with the part behind yet.

[HURAKAN]

94E has lost the symmetry that it had yesterday.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 261745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 261846
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC THU JUN 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080626 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080626 1800 080627 0600 080627 1800 080628 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 106.8W 12.3N 108.9W 13.0N 110.6W 13.5N 112.5W
BAMD 11.4N 106.8W 12.0N 108.7W 12.8N 110.4W 13.4N 112.2W
BAMM 11.4N 106.8W 12.1N 108.9W 12.8N 110.8W 13.5N 112.8W
LBAR 11.4N 106.8W 12.4N 109.3W 13.2N 111.9W 14.4N 114.4W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080628 1800 080629 1800 080630 1800 080701 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 114.5W 14.2N 118.3W 14.3N 122.9W 13.6N 127.2W
BAMD 14.0N 114.2W 14.5N 119.0W 15.1N 125.2W 16.3N 131.9W
BAMM 14.1N 114.9W 14.7N 119.8W 15.1N 126.0W 15.5N 132.5W
LBAR 15.2N 117.1W 16.4N 122.2W 17.2N 127.9W 12.9N 132.4W
SHIP 58KTS 61KTS 58KTS 54KTS
DSHP 58KTS 61KTS 58KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 106.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 103.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 101.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert:

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 262351
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
15 MPH.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

Almost there. Maybe we'll have TD2-E at 0300Z?

[cycloneye]

27/0000 UTC 11.3N 107.7W T2.0/2.0 94E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 270044
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080627 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080627 0000 080627 1200 080628 0000 080628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 107.9W 12.4N 109.6W 12.9N 111.3W 13.4N 113.1W
BAMD 11.6N 107.9W 12.3N 109.8W 13.0N 111.6W 13.5N 113.5W
BAMM 11.6N 107.9W 12.3N 109.9W 13.1N 111.7W 13.7N 113.7W
LBAR 11.6N 107.9W 12.3N 110.2W 13.2N 112.6W 14.2N 115.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080629 0000 080630 0000 080701 0000 080702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 114.8W 13.9N 118.6W 13.9N 123.0W 13.6N 127.4W
BAMD 13.9N 115.6W 14.1N 121.0W 14.8N 127.4W 16.5N 133.7W
BAMM 14.2N 115.7W 14.1N 121.0W 14.2N 127.1W 14.5N 133.1W
LBAR 15.0N 117.6W 15.9N 123.1W 17.3N 128.9W 11.3N 129.7W
SHIP 49KTS 50KTS 49KTS 50KTS
DSHP 49KTS 50KTS 49KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 107.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 105.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 102.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

It's possible for 2-E & 3-E to be upgraded soon.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

expecting both areas to develop, plus mention a third suspect area

[RattleMan]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_ep942008_ep022008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200806270707
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Cyclenall]

Since it's NONAME now on the NRL, it appears it's the 2nd TC of the 2008 Epac season. I haven't seen the NHC upgrade in the middle of the night for a Epac system in a long time.

[RattleMan]

Initialized at 25kt:

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270832
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR A FEW DAYS HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WITH AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3
DAYS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. IN GENERAL...NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST EITHER WEAKENING OR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE
OF THE CYCLONE.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR A DAY
OR SO. THEN...IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS A STRONGER MIDDLE-
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION
OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 12.0N 108.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 12.4N 109.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.7N 111.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 13.0N 113.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.5N 115.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.5N 118.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 13.5N 122.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 13.5N 126.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA