TC Bertha

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Possible?

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2008 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 29:57:23 N Lon : 62:25:07 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1001.3mb/ 39.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.7mb

Center Temp : -4.5C Cloud Region Temp : -27.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************



Looking really bad.

[Chacor]

ATCF says 65 kts but I'm not buying that.

[KWT]

Yeah that is no way a hurricane IMO, I'd go 55kts right now, its still got a decent enough structure but there is just a complete lack of deep convection.

[Chacor]

Remnant lows usually maintain a fairly good structure and are also devoid of deep convection. Not that this is an RL yet, but it's pretty close. Looks around 40-45 kts right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing must get moving, the upwelling is killing it. Once it gets moving, I expect it to restrengthen.

[KWT]

The thing is Matt there may not be much left of the system and the cloud cover is large enough that a fair region is probably a fair region is suffering upwelling so even if it does move it will have to move a fair distance to get into fresh grounds so to speak.

[Chacor]

Somehow kept as a hurricane.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT...BUT
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.8N 62.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.1N 62.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 30.8N 63.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 32.0N 63.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 33.4N 63.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 35.5N 62.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 35.5N 59.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.0W 50 KT

"This could be generous"? No kidding!

[brunota2003]

That looks like either a TD or low TS to me.

[Chacor]

Convection is trying to make a comeback.

[Ad Novoxium]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT...BUT
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.8N 62.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.1N 62.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 30.8N 63.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 32.0N 63.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 33.4N 63.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 35.5N 62.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 35.5N 59.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.0W 50 KT

Jean Hersholt would be at a loss for words.

[Hello32020]

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/local/ph ... ptide.html

Rip currents have killed at least one person in New Jersey

[cycloneye]

Downgraded at 8 AM EDT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Chacor]

ATCF says 55 kt.

AL, 02, 2008071312, , BEST, 0, 298N, 626W, 55, 988, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 100, 120, 1015, 225, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,
AL, 02, 2008071312, , BEST, 0, 298N, 626W, 55, 988, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 60, 60, 1015, 225, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

Bertha needs to move.

[cpdaman]

bertha looks a little more interesting to me this morning

i tried a couple times to post what i think is going on but doesn't sound right to me

is she falling apart?

is this a center re-location to the NW going on , a transition to extra tropical, , somethings in the works

when she appeared to be drifting se , then this N side of her gets energized and expands NW, NE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

perhaps she is making a move on bermuda

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

or perhaps she decided to throw her anchor 100 miles NW and spin for a while

[HURAKAN]

It's moving northward.

[cycloneye]

bertha looks a little more interesting to me this morning

i tried a couple times to post what i think is going on but doesn't sound right to me

is this a center re-location to the NW going on , is it a new CDO forming , somethings in the works

when she appeared to be drifting se , then this N side of her gets energized and expands NW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

perhaps she is making a move on bermuda

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

or perhaps she decided to throw her anchor 100 miles NW and spin for a while

Those questions will be answered when the plane arrives and make the alpha pattern.

[Chacor]

627
WTNT42 KNHC 131435
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAS DECREASED EXCEPT WITHIN A BAND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...BERTHA STILL HAS A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55
KNOTS AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL INTENSITY
AND WIND RADII INFORMATION LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD
INDUCE WEAKENING...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND INTENSITY MODELS
EITHER STRENGTHEN OR KEEP BERTHA WITH THE SAME INTENSITY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPTED FOR AN INITIAL WEAKENING AND THEN
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODELS CALLING FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT NOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT ABOUT 2
TO 3 KNOTS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND A TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A SLOW
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL SLOW AND TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA COULD
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.2N 63.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 30.4N 63.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 63.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 63.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 61.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 54.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA