ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[JenBayles]

Just on Ch. 11: Judge Emmett and Mayor White will address evacuation orders for Harris County at 7:30 a.m. tomorrow morning.

[HouTXmetro]

NHC North of the latest models

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[Air Force Met]

NHC North of the latest models

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Not really. They are in the cluster. Some are south...some are north or right near their track.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Plus, keep in mind that the NHC track is not really a straight line as their image shows. In actuality, the storm will take more of a bend toward each point as it rounds the ridge, not a bee-line. When you take this into account, the NHC track is actually in pretty good agreement with the models.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z...30h

[Wx_Warrior]

42h

[smw1981]

I posted this in the other forum, but I think it is important to note...

For what it is worth, the 9/11 0z runs of the hurricane models (excluding the GFDL, which is not yet available) continued to feature a shift farther to the north. A number of models brings Ike onshore in north Texas, quite close to the border with Louisiana. - Don Sutherland's PM forecast tonight

I hope LA peeps are getting ready too because apparently they could be the next target.

(This is in the Tropical Analysis thread under his forecasts...for some reason I can't link it.)

[Wx_Warrior]

60 - landfall

[dwg71]

60 hours inland just north of last run

[shah8]

This is probably going to make a big difference for the HWRF model. The GFS is following the GFDL philosophy.

On the other hand, how many lines of isobars do you think are in the 42z surface image?

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW...72h

[HouTXmetro]

Next GFDL may be east of Houston?

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS = Landfall on the north side of Matagorda Bay.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[dwg71]

matagorda bay
give or take,

why does it feel like sept 2005 all over again

models start moving right and right from 72 hours in??

[smw1981]

Next GFDL may be east of Houston?

This is what I am thinking, but this is just crazy when we are so close to landfall! The models just keep shifting north/east. I understand why, just think it sucks for everyone dealing with it!

[HouTXmetro]

There is suppose to a consensus this close to landfall, not disagreement.

[southerngale]

matagorda bay
give or take,

why does it feel like sept 2005 all over again

models start moving right and right from 72 hours in??

Tell me about it. On one hand, it seems silly to compare. This isn't Sept. 2005. On the other hand, the similarities are uncanny. Today's 4pm Ike track was almost identical to Rita's on Wednesday, 4pm before it hit. In fact, I had it open and people thought Rita's was Ike.

I just pray it's nothing like Rita was here.

[HouTXmetro]

matagorda bay
give or take,

why does it feel like sept 2005 all over again

models start moving right and right from 72 hours in??

Tell me about it. On one hand, it seems silly to compare. This isn't Sept. 2005. On the other hand, the similarities are uncanny. Today's 4pm Ike track was almost identical to Rita's on Wednesday, 4pm before it hit. In fact, I had it open and people thought Rita's was Ike.

I just pray it's nothing like Rita was here.

While it's still early, I'm fearing Rita type scenario. More eastern shifts. Models suck big time in September if you ask me.

[thetruesms]

There is suppose to a consensus this close to landfall, not disagreement.

Unfortunately, Ike has really not been doing the models any favors this afternoon/evening It's got to be hard for the models, which already have a hard time with intensity to begin with, to handle a deepening like we've seen this evening.

[mattpetre]

Ike is not Rita. I think chances are with this different setup (WNW turn to come into play soon.) the models will actually shift a bit back to the West by morning time.