ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[SCHawkFan]

I have lived in Myrtle Beach for close to 20 years. All I can say is that when I see a track this far out that has a storm heading for the Grand Strand, I can rest assured that it will be a NC storm (or it will end up missing the CONUS all together). I know I need to keep an eye on things another couple days, but I would be much more concerned if a GA hit was being predicted.

[Trader Ron]

Looks like Hanna has been left at the altar by Ike.

[invest man]

I always thought that NRL used the nogaps model. IM

[Regit]

Webke, please look at the NRL map: .
They are an official source, Navy pro mets, though I also hope Wxman57 or someone smart is around to confirm for you.

You may be asking something beyond what I showed and NRL has, in that case, we do need a pro and you might want to go to the questions forum, though I'm not sure where that is right now.

I'm not a met, but I have worked in Emergency Management before and have always heard this. Also, I spoke with someone just today who'd been on the SC governor's conference call and said that one of the people advised them not to focus on the straight line as the storm will not make a dead turn at each forecast position. They mentioned that the forecast landfall point was significantly farther south than the official NHC map made it seem.

[invest man]

I always thought that NRL used the nogaps model. IM

Although they might be using the gfdl model

[invest man]

Webke, please look at the NRL map: .
They are an official source, Navy pro mets, though I also hope Wxman57 or someone smart is around to confirm for you.

You may be asking something beyond what I showed and NRL has, in that case, we do need a pro and you might want to go to the questions forum, though I'm not sure where that is right now.

I'm not a met, but I have worked in Emergency Management before and have always heard this. Also, I spoke with someone just today who'd been on the SC governor's conference call and said that one of the people advised them not to focus on the straight line as the storm will not make a dead turn at each forecast position. They mentioned that the forecast landfall point was significantly farther south than the official NHC map made it seem.

Then how do you get to those points with a further south landfall point unless it goes in back out and back up?

[SeaBrz_FL]

I feel like I am reliving "Groundhog Day"!

We've been entertaining Hanna for days now! here on Providenciales

You are no longer welcome here...not that you ever were......,

These sleepless nights are really beginning to take a toll on us.....a lot of folks are emotionally exhausted from this storm.

It just seems to never end.....

Hi Greels -- Like Artist, I've been thinking about you, too. Unless someone has been through it, there is no way to describe the emotional hell of living through a big storm that never ends. I'm sure our friends in Louisana and Texas are feeling the same right now with Gustav. I say, give me a fast moving Cat 2 anyday, rather than a TS or Cat 1 that hangs around for 48 hours or more.

Best of luck to you on recovery and dodging the upcoming storms.

-- SeaBrz

P.S. -- I've only visited your islands once, but can't wait to get back asap!

[Plibster]

I have lived in Myrtle Beach for close to 20 years. All I can say is that when I see a track this far out that has a storm heading for the Grand Strand, I can rest assured that it will be a NC storm (or it will end up missing the CONUS all together). I know I need to keep an eye on things another couple days, but I would be much more concerned if a GA hit was being predicted.

I know what you mean. Last night when the models started to trend east, I thought, well its going above us. We have had some close calls though. I am still going to keep an eye on Hanna. When would any watches go up?

[wxman57]

Webke, please look at the NRL map: .
They are an official source, Navy pro mets, though I also hope Wxman57 or someone smart is around to confirm for you.

You may be asking something beyond what I showed and NRL has, in that case, we do need a pro and you might want to go to the questions forum, though I'm not sure where that is right now.

I'm not a met, but I have worked in Emergency Management before and have always heard this. Also, I spoke with someone just today who'd been on the SC governor's conference call and said that one of the people advised them not to focus on the straight line as the storm will not make a dead turn at each forecast position. They mentioned that the forecast landfall point was significantly farther south than the official NHC map made it seem.

That map posted above IS the NHC forecast track, but with the proper curve applied to the points 24 hours apart. I don't know why the NHC just can't add in additional track points to better-define the curve. Landfall is projected to be near the SC/NC border. NHC states that in the discussion - you can't connect the two points 24 hrs apart to get the point of landfall.

That said, Hanna looks like a complete mess to me. It sure doesn't look like it'll get its act together before moving into the Carolinas. Maybe it'll become a sheared Cat 1 with hurricane force winds right of the center in a small area. And looking at the WV loop, I wouldn't be surprised if the models shift east overnight.

[Regit]

I have lived in Myrtle Beach for close to 20 years. All I can say is that when I see a track this far out that has a storm heading for the Grand Strand, I can rest assured that it will be a NC storm (or it will end up missing the CONUS all together). I know I need to keep an eye on things another couple days, but I would be much more concerned if a GA hit was being predicted.

I know what you mean. Last night when the models started to trend east, I thought, well its going above us. We have had some close calls though. I am still going to keep an eye on Hanna. When would any watches go up?

Expect watches tomorrow if it remains on track.

[wxman57]

I have lived in Myrtle Beach for close to 20 years. All I can say is that when I see a track this far out that has a storm heading for the Grand Strand, I can rest assured that it will be a NC storm (or it will end up missing the CONUS all together). I know I need to keep an eye on things another couple days, but I would be much more concerned if a GA hit was being predicted.

I know what you mean. Last night when the models started to trend east, I thought, well its going above us. We have had some close calls though. I am still going to keep an eye on Hanna. When would any watches go up?

Your reasoning actually isn't that bad. I'm thinking the same thing. I'd be much more worried about Ike than Hanna at this point. Ike will definitely be a more powerful hurricane when it threatens the southeast U.S. next Tue/Wed.

[eastcoastFL]

will the treasure coast feel any of Hanna?

[DESTRUCTION5]

will the treasure coast feel any of Hanna?

Breeze and a Shower.

[cpdaman]

if Hanna does get her act together sooner than later will that make a difference in her projected track?

checking back in , read several pages but artist question was one i didn't see answered yet

just trying to bump this ,see if anyone can help out.

also hanna has a very nice burst over her center

lets see if she can get some southerly inflow going

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

this loop reminds me of one of those that hurrakan puts together with "all the colors man".

[Brent]

I have lived in Myrtle Beach for close to 20 years. All I can say is that when I see a track this far out that has a storm heading for the Grand Strand, I can rest assured that it will be a NC storm (or it will end up missing the CONUS all together). I know I need to keep an eye on things another couple days, but I would be much more concerned if a GA hit was being predicted.

I know what you mean. Last night when the models started to trend east, I thought, well its going above us. We have had some close calls though. I am still going to keep an eye on Hanna. When would any watches go up?

Your reasoning actually isn't that bad. I'm thinking the same thing. I'd be much more worried about Ike than Hanna at this point. Ike will definitely be a more powerful hurricane when it threatens the southeast U.S. next Tue/Wed.

Agreed.

I kind of feel sorry for Hanna, first overshadowed by Gustav and now Ike.

[AdamFirst]

will the treasure coast feel any of Hanna?

Breeze and a Shower.

Seriously. Two days ago it was a whole different ballgame...I don't even expect the outmost of the outer core to even touch Florida at this point


(This is not a forecast, refer to the National Hurricane Center or your local National Weather Service office, blah blah blah)

[ncgurl]

how close to nags head, nc do you all think it will come?

[artist]

if Hanna does get her act together sooner than later will that make a difference in her projected track?

checking back in , read several pages but artist question was one i didn't see answered yet

just trying to bump this ,see if anyone can help out.

also hanna has a very nice burst over her center

lets see if she can get some southerly inflow going

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

thanks for the bump cpdaman. Hopefully someone will be able to answer this.

this loop reminds me of one of those that hurrakan puts together with "all the colors man".

[Epsilon_Fan]

Agreed.

I kind of feel sorry for Hanna, first overshadowed by Gustav and now Ike.

she kinda did it to herself by spending a leisurely vacation over the Bahamas for so long. Fortunately, by the time she got up and moved out, the steering currents are pushing her more and more out to sea.

I was concerned about this one but now I wouldn't be surprised if this was a NC scraper and Charleston only got a few showers.

[weatherSnoop]

if Hanna does get her act together sooner than later will that make a difference in her projected track?

"checking back in , read several pages but artist question was one i didn't see answered yet

just trying to bump this ,see if anyone can help out."


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