ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[dwg71]

GFS end game is very similiar to last run. If not identical. Maybe 10 miles east of last run. Initialization a little off, not much.

[deltadog03]

The ULL will give her fits for the next day or 2...Then its forecasted to push back south west. Once nearing florida, there will be a very nice upper anti-clyone, so it could be off to the races.

[Bocadude85]

wonder if she will be able to survive the shear?? hopefully she just goes poof

[bvigal]

I'm looking at the 18z GFS, and it has Hanna as 1007mb, and Gustav as 1000mb at 8pm tonight. Can't somebody tweak these models so they at least start out with an accurate representation? Who can believe a 5-day projection when they begin with so much error?

[Bocadude85]

GFS end game is very similiar to last run. If not identical. Maybe 10 miles east of last run. Initialization a little off, not much.

Doesnt seem like its farther east to me seems farther west....

[jojo]

I'm looking at the 18z GFS, and it has Hanna as 1007mb, and Gustav as 1000mb at 8pm tonight. Can't somebody tweak these models so they at least start out with an accurate representation? Who can believe a 5-day projection when they begin with so much error?

I know, it seems so ridiculous with all the technology at their fingertips that they can't even get the basic input information right in the first place. Surely the runs would be so much more accurate if the initial detail could be keyed correctly.

[Bocadude85]

GFS moves Hanna west though the Fla Straits and into the Gulf.... man this is going to keep floridians on their toes for awhile.. assuming she survives.

[gatorcane]

18 GFS is rolling. WNW movement through 54 hours, then Hanna slows down and heads more westward:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Considering the GFS was SW past Cuba, that is quite a shift.

[Recurve]

I'm looking at the 18z GFS, and it has Hanna as 1007mb, and Gustav as 1000mb at 8pm tonight. Can't somebody tweak these models so they at least start out with an accurate representation? Who can believe a 5-day projection when they begin with so much error?

I know, it seems so ridiculous with all the technology at their fingertips that they can't even get the basic input information right in the first place. Surely the runs would be so much more accurate if the initial detail could be keyed correctly.

Storms don't steer themselves. What's going on away from the storm is more important than having the exact right intensity at initialization, I would think.

[Bocadude85]

18 GFS is rolling. WNW movement through 54 hours, then Hanna slows down and heads more westward:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Considering the GFS was SW past Cuba, that is quite a shift.

yea gfs did shift a little further north just shows a more west motion in the long run as opposed to the nw motion in the 12z

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps brings a powerful hurricane towards s.fl...many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082918

[decgirl66]

soooo....will we here in the central east coast feel any effects?

[eastcoastFL]

going to be a long week.

[Nimbus]

Wish this were just a pool game with a bunch of drunk guys in a bar making bets.

You are all too young to remember the "Fats".

[wzrgirl1]

has a storm ever dipped this many degrees south as it is projected to do

[Bocadude85]

so what does the 18z hwrf and gfdl do?

[Evil Jeremy]

so what does the 18z hwrf and gfdl do?

The new GFDL brings this to the Cuban coast, before shooting it off to the NW.

[Bocadude85]

18Z Nogaps brings a powerful hurricane towards s.fl...many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082918

The 18z Nogaps has landfall in South Florida..

[SouthFLTropics]

so what does the 18z hwrf and gfdl do?

The new GFDL brings this to the Cuban coast, before shooting it off to the NW.

Terrific...Right towards us!!!

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 300105
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000 080831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 64.7W 22.8N 66.9W 23.8N 68.9W 24.6N 70.7W
BAMD 21.9N 64.7W 22.7N 66.4W 23.4N 68.1W 23.9N 69.7W
BAMM 21.9N 64.7W 22.7N 66.7W 23.4N 68.6W 24.0N 70.3W
LBAR 21.9N 64.7W 23.0N 66.7W 23.9N 68.8W 24.6N 70.9W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 54KTS 59KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 54KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080901 0000 080902 0000 080903 0000 080904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.5N 72.2W 26.4N 74.9W 26.2N 78.7W 25.0N 83.5W
BAMD 24.1N 71.0W 23.7N 72.8W 22.5N 74.5W 22.3N 76.1W
BAMM 24.6N 71.6W 24.9N 73.7W 24.4N 76.2W 23.6N 79.6W
LBAR 24.7N 73.0W 23.7N 76.2W 21.7N 79.8W 19.8N 82.2W
SHIP 64KTS 69KTS 70KTS 69KTS
DSHP 64KTS 69KTS 70KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 64.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 62.4W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 20.8N LONM24 = 60.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$