Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[deltadog03]

I was a bit suprised to see this for sure. Its going to be interesting to see what really happens with this once it gets to the boc. IF it can sit there long enough then I think we could see some north movement with a trof coming into the plains.

[Aric Dunn]

It's the first fully tropical storm to form in May since 1981.

really ... ??? hmmmm..... i know we had sub tropical become tropical ..

I think CrazyC83 is referring to systems that formed as fully tropical systems rather than hybrid systems that transitioned to tropical systems.

yeah i figured as much after the fact ...

[deltadog03]

I don't think the GFS nailed it so to speak, but def. gets kudos for showing that area as being a hot spot.

[Aric Dunn]

I was a bit suprised to see this for sure. Its going to be interesting to see what really happens with this once it gets to the boc. IF it can sit there long enough then I think we could see some north movement with a trof coming into the plains.

agreed.. its been moving slowly and if it is slower than the guidance shows we should see a shift in the models to more of a northerly track in response to that trough ..

[Derek Ortt]

dont see it moving north... I see this as a serious threat to the Veracruz area, however

[KWT]

Yep I agree with you Derek, the southern BoC can produce storms really rapidly, just look at the 2005 season for recent examples of this.

I think convection will explode once it comes offland and very rapidly re-develop, may only take 12-18hrs in this set-up if it can retain the convection to any degree, I do agree with Derek.

Certainly weren't expecting this sort of early start though have to admit!!!

[StormspinnerD2]

I'm speechless. Apparently now all it takes is TS winds to be upgraded to a TS, whether it has a discernible circulation center or any organisation is not important anymore. It was a broad area of low pressure with no development expected two hours before they upgraded it. It doesn't help that I could not find any TS winds when this was upgraded; that buoy never reported winds higher than 30 knots or pressure lower than 1011 hPa.

I will want to see the TCR for this when it comes out.

[Aric Dunn]

dont see it moving north... I see this as a serious threat to the Veracruz area, however

sorry let me rephrase a more northerly component ( more wnw nw later on 3 days) depending on how slow it move now.. cause that trough is coming it all depends on the speed of arthur..

[Aric Dunn]

I'm speechless. Apparently now all it takes is TS winds to be upgraded to a TS, whether it has a discernible circulation center or any organisation is not important anymore. It was a broad area of low pressure with no development expected two hours before they upgraded it. It doesn't help that I could not find any TS winds when this was upgraded; that buoy never reported winds higher than 30 knots or pressure lower than 1011 hPa.

I will want to see the TCR for this when it comes out.

that just means they have more at their disposal .... to find the necessary data.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm speechless. Apparently now all it takes is TS winds to be upgraded to a TS, whether it has a discernible circulation center or any organisation is not important anymore. It was a broad area of low pressure with no development expected two hours before they upgraded it. It doesn't help that I could not find any TS winds when this was upgraded; that buoy never reported winds higher than 30 knots or pressure lower than 1011 hPa.

I will want to see the TCR for this when it comes out.

Do you have any idea how to look at a visible satellite? I mean you can see a clearly defined LLC as clear as day if you looked at one; that more then shows a closed LLC as early as early this morning. With surface data showing a closed LLC. so please look at a visible and read the nhc discussions.

Every weak tropical storm there is always some one that posts this kind of post.

[StormspinnerD2]

Well, I just find it funny that they upgraded seeing as QuikSCAT and ASCAT showed nothing. Here's the ship reports from 18Z and 12Z:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=9

12 m/s is about 24 kt.

[deltadog03]

Derek, I agree, that it might not be Arthur that does the north movement. However, with the pattern off the east coast and the high in the position that it is in, there will should still be mass convergence into the western carrib. I feel like if that continues then there will be a fairly healthy trof that could/should get close enough to draw something north (if there is a cyclone there)

[Derek Ortt]

dont see it moving north... I see this as a serious threat to the Veracruz area, however

sorry let me rephrase a more northerly component ( more wnw nw later on 3 days) depending on how slow it move now.. cause that trough is coming it all depends on the speed of arthur..

this would have to change the laws of dynamics to remain in the BOC for 3 more days. There is almost certainly enough of a flow to the west to force this into Mexico. The trough is likely not to matter

[brunota2003]

Well, I just find it funny that they upgraded seeing as QuikSCAT and ASCAT showed nothing. Here's the ship reports from 18Z and 12Z:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=9

12 m/s is about 24 kt.

Here is the NOAA Buoy in question:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
Sustained winds to 29 knots, with a gust to 35 knots (35 mph and 40 mph, respectively).

[KWT]

Yep StormspinnerD2 as the others said it does clearly have a LLC and with winds being found above TS strength and so it was upgraded, nothing more too it then that really!
I think your just trying to save face for dismissing it this morning...excuse me if that was a little out of line.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek, I agree, that it might not be Arthur that does the north movement. However, with the pattern off the east coast and the high in the position that it is in, there will should still be mass convergence into the western carrib. I feel like if that continues then there will be a fairly healthy trof that could/should get close enough to draw something north (if there is a cyclone there)

Yeah, next week anything coming from the trough is likely to move north

speaking of the trough, we need to get the monsoon trough out of the Carib, or at least into the SW Carib where it belongs if it is in the Carib. We know what happens if the monsoon trough lingers in the Carib

[KWT]

Yep we sure do Derek, we really risk 05 type hurricanes, those big beasts...so if the moonsoon trough stays is there a chance another system could later develop from that region?

Also I guess there is recon progged for the BoC if it looks like it willreach that area.

[HURAKAN]

[StormspinnerD2]

Yep StormspinnerD2 as the others said it does clearly have a LLC and with winds being found above TS strength and so it was upgraded, nothing more too it then that really!
I think your just trying to save face for dismissing it this morning...excuse me if that was a little out of line.

At the time I saw nothing but broad rotation on visible satellite, and nothing discernible on the microwave imagery. I provided evidence to refute NHC's reasoning for the upgrade (lack of TS force winds from the sources they described). Don't accuse me of being out of line; I have provided valid evidence to my opinion.

[canegrl04]

Wow,Arthur already And we are a day away from the official start to the season. I hope this is not a sign of things to come becuz that will not bode well for the east coast, Florida,and possible La to Ga.