ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[wxman57]

If the center is further down by that Quickscat center we are talking a much different track.

Yeah, the quikscat was showing a closed low down near 12-13N. That would indeed lead to a totally different track if it was found to be accurate.

97L is approaching 20N, not down at 12-13N. A center won't form in an area free of convection, it's the other way around. This is a fish if it develops. Not much chance of anything else.

[RL3AO]

97L is approaching 20N, not down at 12-13N. A center won't form in an area free of convection, it's the other way around. This is a fish if it develops. Not much chance of anything else.

Any chance that the convection dies down and the low/wave move west/wnw and try to develop near the Bahamas?

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow should be an interesting day for this system as it will move toward an area of much lower shear and warmer SSTs. Still, dry air is a problem for development.

[MGC]

97L will have to battle all that dry air out ahead of it not to mention the shear. I doubt it gets together any time soon......MGC

[boca]

What about this area which is at 7n and 40 w moving west. I questioning if that is part of the wave which is 97L that the models are looking at.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[wxman57]

97L is approaching 20N, not down at 12-13N. A center won't form in an area free of convection, it's the other way around. This is a fish if it develops. Not much chance of anything else.

Any chance that the convection dies down and the low/wave move west/wnw and try to develop near the Bahamas?

Oh, sure, and I may win the lottery tomorrow, too.

[RL3AO]

Oh, sure, and I may win the lottery tomorrow, too.

So you're telling me theres a chance?

[Sanibel]

Looks like it just had its top blown off by shear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a moderate chance that we have just seen the last tropical cyclone to form in the Atlantic intil mid August. The Atlantic is becoming unfavorable for any development period.

Time to watch the western Pacific.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Visible shows a well defined LLC near 17.8/44 moving westward, but no chance of development while it is being sheared.

[RL3AO]

There is a moderate chance that we have just seen the last tropical cyclone to form in the Atlantic intil mid August. The Atlantic is becoming unfavorable for any development period.

Time to watch the western Pacific.

Pretty good chance we will get another storm or two. The MJO doesn't shut down a basin. Just lowers the development chances some.

[Jason_B]

I have to agree with Matt, with that burst of storms we just had over the past few weeks it only makes sense if things simmered down for a while.

[cycloneye]

215
ABNT20 KNHC 252338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 60
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PRESIDIO TEXAS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1250 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 15-20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cyclenall]

I can't see this forming in the next 120 hours, I'm not thrilled with it like I was days ago.

99.75 hours left until it has the chance to become a TC in my mind. The NHC's statement "DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS" is in line with my prediction now.

Now down to 48 hours left before this even has a chance at tropical cyclone formation in my mind. The NHC has started to talk about it again which seems right on track!

[gatorcane]

Fish, Fish, Fish. No chance of this thing coming even close to the U.S or Leewards:

I provided track reasoning is farther up this thread.

[cycloneye]

ATCF best track at 00:00 UTC:

AL, 97, 2008072600, , BEST, 0, 191N, 438W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 25, 0, 0,

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Since it has a LLC if the shear goe's down like the models are forecasting. I would think it has some chance. But I don't trust the shear models at all.

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[Sanibel]

This won't develop unless it gets its convection back.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC is now centered near 18 north/49.5 west moving west or north of west. Also a few convection pop ups have formed near this center. We will see if shear decreases.