ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cheezyWXguy]

Dan Milham of News Channel 6 just assured everyone that there was nothing to worry about and that he'd be watching the models and tell us what we need to know.

Thank goodness for access to information.

Steve

Wow...why does the media suck so bad. They keep everyone so ill-informed and im glad i dont buy into all their propoganda...lol

[SapphireSea]

Dan Milham of News Channel 6 just assured everyone that there was nothing to worry about and that he'd be watching the models and tell us what we need to know.

Thank goodness for access to information.

Steve

Wow...why does the media suck so bad. They keep everyone so ill-informed and im glad i dont buy into all their propoganda...lol

Channel 6 where? I'd say if your not on PR or DR, there probobly isn't anything to worry about at the time, as this is still nothing. Of course this could change. I don't usually defend the media, but in this case he has a point.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like I've been proven wrong. I think I was too quick in judging the convective burst from earlier as the center. I guess 92L/TD 6/Fay will stick around longer than I thought.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dan Milham of News Channel 6 just assured everyone that there was nothing to worry about and that he'd be watching the models and tell us what we need to know.

Thank goodness for access to information.

Steve

Wow...why does the media suck so bad. They keep everyone so ill-informed and im glad i dont buy into all their propoganda...lol

Channel 6 where? I'd say if your not on PR or DR, there probobly isn't anything to worry about at the time, as this is still nothing. Of course this could change. I don't usually defend the media, but in this case he has a point.

This is NOT nothing. There is likely a llc forming right now, and many models bring this to a category 2 to 4 hurricane by the time it hits florida.

[Texashawk]

Are the GOES satellites down? They haven't updated in a while...

[GreenSky]

I don't know, but looks like its going to be a close call for the Dominican Republic...92L might get ripped apart by the high terrain if it keeps moving west...it must start heading more northerly to avoid land interaction with the Dominican Republic....I've seen this story repeat in the past all too many times; promising system showing signs of development and forecasted to skirt the coast of DR but instead makes landfall and is ripped apart. end of story

92L is moving way too fast and too westerly...anyone else see the same?

[Steve]

Over in NOLA. It isn't any future threat I was worried about, I just didn't like his condescending tone. He's a long term fixture on NBC/Channel 6's weather, but I'm pretty sure he got his certification from the correspondence course they let you take back then.

Steve

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DOES NOT
YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Steve]

>>Are the GOES satellites down? They haven't updated in a while...

Eclipse probably. Do a search for goes+eclipse+schedule and you can see when it's down.

Steve

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't know, but looks like its going to be a close call for the Dominican Republic...92L might get ripped apart by the high terrain if it keeps moving west...it must start heading more northerly to avoid land interaction with the Dominican Republic....I've seen this story repeat in the past all too many times; promising system showing signs of development and forecasted to skirt the coast but instead makes landfall and is ripped apart. end of story

ugh...people dont listen on this board. At this time, there is no inner core to disrupt, so even if it does go over dr, which i dont believe it will, it will likely not do much if anything to the storm. Weaker systems are affected less by land than strong ones.

[Stormcenter]

Are the GOES satellites down? They haven't updated in a while...

Sat. blackout time.

[sgastorm]

The 0531Z satellite picture is up at the Nasa/MFSC site. Don't know how to post a still of it, but there are big changes.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Stormcenter]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DOES NOT
YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Nothing here to see yet....move along now.

[MWatkins]

Are the GOES satellites down? They haven't updated in a while...

We are in the eclipse. The GOES satellite is passing behind the earth's shadow. We won't have imagery for another hour or so.
Happens...frustratingly...at this time of year.

MW

[Stratosphere747]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would bet a bridge in New york city that this now has a closed Broad LLC near 18.7/65.8. You now have a west wind...Maybe not the best defined system but I'm not understanding at what point you went to call this a LLC. Please some one point out a flaw within this for me.

[bahamaswx]

I don't know, but looks like its going to be a close call for the Dominican Republic...92L might get ripped apart by the high terrain if it keeps moving west...it must start heading more northerly to avoid land interaction with the Dominican Republic....I've seen this story repeat in the past all too many times; promising system showing signs of development and forecasted to skirt the coast but instead makes landfall and is ripped apart. end of story

ugh...people dont listen on this board. At this time, there is no inner core to disrupt, so even if it does go over dr, which i dont believe it will, it will likely not do much if anything to the storm. Weaker systems are affected less by land than strong ones.

Relax with the whole "nobody listens to me!" thing.

This is getting pretty ridiculous. Were it in the GOM it would've been upgraded long ago.

[AdamFirst]

In lack of a better term, this storm is a big tease.

Maybe when I wake up tomorrow morning we'll have something concrete. Good night all.

[Stormcenter]

I would bet a bridge in New york city that this now has a closed Broad LLC near 18.7/65.8. You now have a west wind...Maybe not the best defined system but I'm not understanding at what point you went to call this a LLC. Please some one point out a flaw within this for me.

No offense but haven't we've been hearing this since yesterday?

[SapphireSea]

Over in NOLA. It isn't any future threat I was worried about, I just didn't like his condescending tone. He's a long term fixture on NBC/Channel 6's weather, but I'm pretty sure he got his certification from the correspondence course they let you take back then.

Steve

Yeah in that case yes, I heard he is lame. But there is no point to getting riled up by a maybe possibly, perhaps, likely, maybe threatening TC. As a person living in S. FL, I will keep a close eye on it, and as a researcher I am all over it as long as I am awake. We can't just sound the alarms down here because of a model's whim, and the NHC understands this, and will act accordingly. Now I'm not saying it has absolutely NO threat to Florida or the East Coast, but at the moment it is not a priority worry to begin making life or death decisions, and the models and research discussions on NHC always inform you of not doing this. The islands and Dominican really does have to rush preparations for deadly flooding, and I believe the local weather services have issued proper warning at the time being.