ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3341 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:51 pm

If this thing gets going, will the 1st the center reform farther north if possible and 2nd go threw the Y.CHANNELS?
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#3342 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:51 pm

extradited wrote:Claudette was only a cat 1, right?


Yep...but it stayed sheared right up until the last few hours prior to landfall and then the bottom fell out. This system reminds me of her in the way the LLC is having problems consolidating over the Caribbean but yet is maintaining good convection. When it finally did it still fell apart (a total inner core collapse).

BTW...I was reading the other day and someone noted that only one storm had formed in the Caribbean during the month of July...Ceasar...at least that is what I think was being said. That's not true. Claudette '03 formed in the Caribbean in July...as did Becky in 1970...and storms in 1886, 1909 and 1931. I might be missing some...but it isn't unheard of.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3343 Postby masaji79 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:53 pm

extradited wrote:Has anyone noticed a weird coincidence where 1 year has a lot of female named hurricanes (major ones) and then the next year has a lot of males? It's only a coincidence, obviously, but still.. makes you think.


Seems to be somewhat true, minus a few exceptions

2000: Gordon, Keith
2001: Allison, Iris, Michelle
2002: Isidore, Lili
2003: Isabel, Juan
2004: Charlie, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005: Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2007: Dean, Felix, Noel

Seems like the years that do not have a prevailing gender, they seem to distribute evenly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3344 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:53 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:If this thing gets going, will the 1st the center reform farther north if possible and 2nd go threw the Y.CHANNELS?



That's certainly possible. This is a classic situation in which we will get center reformations in the short term...until it is close to hurricane strength.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3345 Postby MCWX » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:53 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
stevetampa33614 wrote:And you know if that ULL keeps entrenching itself in that Convection 94L wont have a very big window too develop into much of anything beyond a Tropical Storm.


I don't think the ULL is a problem. It is moving west at about 20 knots and is currently providing great outflow for 94L. As 94L slows down (which it will)...the outflow will be even better.


Is, in fact, the ULL the reason for such strong model consensus for cyclogenesis? As the upper low fills and the surface wave moves into the best diffluence aloft (associated with the ULL) and as shear decreases, we see strong model consensus for surface development. Hence, the bolder language from NHC tonight.

My question is do you think this is completely a barotropic process? Even in 2-3 days, some of the modeling shows cyclonic flow up to 250mb over the developing cyclone.

Also interesting is the rather large progged wind field and look of the progged precip maps as well as the developing outflow channel with the entrance region of that jet aiding in rains well to the north of the surface feature.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

MC
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#3346 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:54 pm

Certainly cannot find a center on that QuikSCAT.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3347 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:56 pm

Nimbus wrote:That ULL to the NW of 94L is finally starting to move west faster than the wave. Wonder what role that could play in steering and outflow ventilation?


I noticed that too. You can see the cirrus canopy over 94L starting to lean to the west instead of being due N-S. That is a clear sign the ULL is outrunning it. It should further ventilate it. As far as steering is concerned...it won't impact it too much until 94L deepens and gets more vertical.
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#3348 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:56 pm

Even though that scan is only 3 hours old, 94L has gotten better organized in even the last hour.
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Re:

#3349 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Certainly cannot find a center on that QuikSCAT.


Well...that doesn't even match what recon was showing. There were a lot of south winds found by recon...so I think we can throw that image out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3350 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:58 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Nimbus wrote:That ULL to the NW of 94L is finally starting to move west faster than the wave. Wonder what role that could play in steering and outflow ventilation?


I noticed that too. You can see the cirrus canopy over 94L starting to lean to the west instead of being due N-S. That is a clear sign the ULL is outrunning it. It should further ventilate it. As far as steering is concerned...it won't impact it too much until 94L deepens and gets more vertical.



if thats the case then every one can count their blessings because if this had formed in the begening then we could have been looking at a cat.4 or cat.5 but I am sure it may not do that now!!!!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3351 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:58 pm

That pass was very old,at 7:35 AM EDT.Look to the bottom at the real time,not look at the top.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3352 Postby cooter » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:03 pm

WHen do you guys expect this storm to hit 2nd landfall in Mexico or even in south TX? I have been reading the posts and I am very interested.

Teacher from TX
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3353 Postby hawkeh » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:05 pm

So I've been following 94L from the start, seems like this is the best it's looked so far. Recon should be interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3354 Postby AJC3 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:That pass was very old,at 7:35 AM EDT.Look to the bottom at the real time,not look at the top.


Luis, you beat me to it! :-)

It looks like the next swath from the descending QS pass (which has already occurred - it just hasn't posted to the web yet) will catch most of the system though it may just miss some of the eastern side of it.

edit: the more I look at the last swath...it looks like the next one will probably only catch the western half of the system
Last edited by AJC3 on Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#3355 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:10 pm

I think they'll find the needle in a haystack.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3356 Postby stevetampa33614 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:11 pm

Man i cant sleep till the 11:00pm

in totally unrelated news some models are showing development of the wave coming of africa. Its about the size texas and looks very healthy. With no shear or Dry infront of it. This season is gonna be bad folks. I can only pray lots of fish get spun around instead of people :cry:
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#3357 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:13 pm

That wave coming off africa is massive.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3358 Postby boca » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:15 pm

The sooner it develops the sooner it will recurve. The deeper it is the more of a chance of it going poleward.
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#3359 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:18 pm

AL, 94, 2008072000, , BEST, 0, 160N, 811W, 35, 1006,

The pressure was lowered to 1006 mb.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3360 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:18 pm

The African Queen wave has its own thread in Talking Tropics, and probably recurves. But it does seem like it is going to be Dolly or Edouard. Probably not before Cristobal goes ET, and 94L better hurry up if we want three simultaneous July storms, as NHC discussion says Bertha soon to hit low 60sF SSTs.
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