ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Just Joshing You
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#3321 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:31 pm

Claudette was only a cat 1, right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3322 Postby lrak » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:34 pm

So should Texas and Louisiana worry?
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americanrebel

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3323 Postby americanrebel » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:34 pm

Is it just me with the NHC planning another flight in just a little 6 hours, seems like they are taking this thing very serious. If it does go where a lot of us are afraid it is going, this could turn into a massive storm (travels in between Yucatan and Cuba).

On a side note, just think how many pages this will go to if this does form and rapidly intensifies like alot of us are thinking.
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#3324 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:35 pm

Be careful about talking about page count.. isn't it against the rules now? Don't want to see you getting banned.
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#3325 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:36 pm

So, I don't think this is going to CAT 5 or to houston, but this should show that the strength that the GFDL and even the HWRF is showing is def. possible. Like I said, don't think that strong, but with some favorable conditions and very very warm waters...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3326 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:37 pm

That ULL to the NW of 94L is finally starting to move west faster than the wave. Wonder what role that could play in steering and outflow ventilation?
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#3327 Postby 93superstorm » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:37 pm

Image

Image
Last edited by 93superstorm on Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3328 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:38 pm

I'm not ready to hype this system yet; because one things can change very fast in the tropics. Remember models have a super hard time forecasting shear, also there could be dry air in the Gulf when it gets there. So no need to forecast a cat3-4 hurricane yet. Could it happen, sure, but its to early to say so yet.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe it "may" form a closed LLC finally within the next 24 hours. Finally becoming Dolly. Once into the gulf I expect it to strengthen as the models do forecast favorable upper levels.

No need to forecast a cat4 or 5 out of this.

Claudette was a cat1 offically, but some of the wind data shown it could of been a two.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3329 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:38 pm

Lets say it develops its LLC tonight... and you were a betting person. Where would it top out at? I don't see any environmental conditions that would prohibit rapid intensification, but I'm also not a pro-met.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3330 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:39 pm

Looking better tonight.

Image
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americanrebel

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#3331 Postby americanrebel » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:41 pm

extradited wrote:Be careful about talking about page count.. isn't it against the rules now? Don't want to see you getting banned.



That is why I put on a post with an actual comment.

So what are all the pro-mets thinking about the extra flights into this system?
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#3332 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:43 pm

Has anyone noticed a weird coincidence where 1 year has a lot of female named hurricanes (major ones) and then the next year has a lot of males? It's only a coincidence, obviously, but still.. makes you think.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3333 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:43 pm

I don't think even the NHC can accurately predict the strength of a hurricane.Especially once a system gets into the GOM. If this becomes Dolly,we'll have snywhere from cat 1 to cat 5 to deal with next week
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Derek Ortt

#3334 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:44 pm

there is not likely to be a nighttime flight

Nighttime invests almost never occur, UNLESS the storm is actually over land (such as Erin over the Bahamas in 1995, or Bob over the Bahamas in 1991)
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#3335 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:44 pm

94L is the craziest invest ever! I cannot believe how the consensus has managed to go from "major threat" to "its dead" to "possible threat" to "its still dead" to "major threat again" all within the span of a week. I don't know if I can remember ever seeing anything like it.
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Re:

#3336 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:94L is the craziest invest ever! I cannot believe how the consensus has managed to go from "major threat" to "its dead" to "possible threat" to "its still dead" to "major threat again" all within the span of a week. I don't know if I can remember ever seeing anything like it.


Yeah, it is. I am still not letting my guards down yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3337 Postby Cape Verde » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:
stevetampa33614 wrote:Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?


Looks like its near the western tip of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

EDIT: Air Force Met and I post the same thing with the same link at the same time. :lol:


The vapor loop clearly shows that something is circulating at the western tip of Cuba, although the convection is clearly trailing it.

Does this indicate that a storm is forming, or does this mean that it's forming its circulations at different levels in different places and will never get its act together?
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Re:

#3338 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:94L is the craziest invest ever! I cannot believe how the consensus has managed to go from "major threat" to "its dead" to "possible threat" to "its still dead" to "major threat again" all within the span of a week. I don't know if I can remember ever seeing anything like it.


If this becomes Dolly,it will still be remembered for the marathon invest along with whatever it winds up doing in the GOM.Absolutely astounding :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3339 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:48 pm

Cape Verde wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
stevetampa33614 wrote:Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?


Looks like its near the western tip of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

EDIT: Air Force Met and I post the same thing with the same link at the same time. :lol:


The vapor loop clearly shows that something is circulating at the western tip of Cuba, although the convection is clearly trailing it.

Does this indicate that a storm is forming, or does this mean that it's forming its circulations at different levels in different places and will never get its act together?


that's the Upper Level Low and it is another different system.
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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3340 Postby weatherguru18 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:49 pm

With near perfect conditions in the gulf, it could pull an Alicia, Audrey and or Humberto and just blow up out of nowhere. The media would go ape _____ and they'd have to film all the tv mets from the belt up.
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