ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly
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- Just Joshing You
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean
Is it just me with the NHC planning another flight in just a little 6 hours, seems like they are taking this thing very serious. If it does go where a lot of us are afraid it is going, this could turn into a massive storm (travels in between Yucatan and Cuba).
On a side note, just think how many pages this will go to if this does form and rapidly intensifies like alot of us are thinking.
On a side note, just think how many pages this will go to if this does form and rapidly intensifies like alot of us are thinking.
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- Just Joshing You
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- deltadog03
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean
That ULL to the NW of 94L is finally starting to move west faster than the wave. Wonder what role that could play in steering and outflow ventilation?
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- Tropical Depression
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean
I'm not ready to hype this system yet; because one things can change very fast in the tropics. Remember models have a super hard time forecasting shear, also there could be dry air in the Gulf when it gets there. So no need to forecast a cat3-4 hurricane yet. Could it happen, sure, but its to early to say so yet.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I believe it "may" form a closed LLC finally within the next 24 hours. Finally becoming Dolly. Once into the gulf I expect it to strengthen as the models do forecast favorable upper levels.
No need to forecast a cat4 or 5 out of this.
Claudette was a cat1 offically, but some of the wind data shown it could of been a two.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I believe it "may" form a closed LLC finally within the next 24 hours. Finally becoming Dolly. Once into the gulf I expect it to strengthen as the models do forecast favorable upper levels.
No need to forecast a cat4 or 5 out of this.
Claudette was a cat1 offically, but some of the wind data shown it could of been a two.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Just Joshing You
- Category 2
- Posts: 512
- Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:29 am
- Location: Nova Scotia
- Just Joshing You
- Category 2
- Posts: 512
- Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 10:29 am
- Location: Nova Scotia
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean
I don't think even the NHC can accurately predict the strength of a hurricane.Especially once a system gets into the GOM. If this becomes Dolly,we'll have snywhere from cat 1 to cat 5 to deal with next week
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:94L is the craziest invest ever! I cannot believe how the consensus has managed to go from "major threat" to "its dead" to "possible threat" to "its still dead" to "major threat again" all within the span of a week. I don't know if I can remember ever seeing anything like it.
Yeah, it is. I am still not letting my guards down yet.
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- Cape Verde
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean
RL3AO wrote:stevetampa33614 wrote:Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?
Looks like its near the western tip of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
EDIT: Air Force Met and I post the same thing with the same link at the same time.
The vapor loop clearly shows that something is circulating at the western tip of Cuba, although the convection is clearly trailing it.
Does this indicate that a storm is forming, or does this mean that it's forming its circulations at different levels in different places and will never get its act together?
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:94L is the craziest invest ever! I cannot believe how the consensus has managed to go from "major threat" to "its dead" to "possible threat" to "its still dead" to "major threat again" all within the span of a week. I don't know if I can remember ever seeing anything like it.
If this becomes Dolly,it will still be remembered for the marathon invest along with whatever it winds up doing in the GOM.Absolutely astounding

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- zaqxsw75050
- Tropical Storm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean
Cape Verde wrote:RL3AO wrote:stevetampa33614 wrote:Can anybody find that ULL or is it gone?
Looks like its near the western tip of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
EDIT: Air Force Met and I post the same thing with the same link at the same time.
The vapor loop clearly shows that something is circulating at the western tip of Cuba, although the convection is clearly trailing it.
Does this indicate that a storm is forming, or does this mean that it's forming its circulations at different levels in different places and will never get its act together?
that's the Upper Level Low and it is another different system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean
With near perfect conditions in the gulf, it could pull an Alicia, Audrey and or Humberto and just blow up out of nowhere. The media would go ape _____ and they'd have to film all the tv mets from the belt up.
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