ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[NEXRAD]

Formation of the upper low wouldn't necessarily preclude Hanna from avoiding one particular location or another. The important thing is the movements of the upper systems, where guidance is in reasonable agreement that the upper low will shift west, eventually situating over Florida towards early Thursday before being shuttled into the Gulf of Mexico ahead of rebound ridging by Friday.

- Jay

[Nimbus]

it looks like the forecasted trough split may be starting to occur

Yup it looks that way on the water vapor loop to me to.

An ULL should split off from the trough and roll southwest of Hanna. Should kick her first NW then maybe WNW.

Not sure what the models are expecting to recurve her yet, probably the ridging breaks down.

[KWT]

Yep Nimbus I think the cyclonic loop is on the final part and that soon enough should lift out to the NW.

Jay, I think much depends on whether it can hold the convection or not, if it sheds it again which its threatening to do then any ULL won't really effect the track but if it can close to the convection given the vertical depth of the convection it may play a small part in the track.

[NEXRAD]

Jay, I think much depends on whether it can hold the convection or not, if it sheds it again which its threatening to do then any ULL won't really effect the track but if it can close to the convection given the vertical depth of the convection it may play a small part in the track.

Exactly. Given the upper level conditions and low level steering patterns, I'd expect Hanna's low level circulation to remain stuck near the western side of any convection that maintains itself near the surface low.

- Jay

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

Now 13 dead in Haiti (plus 1 in Puerto Rico).

http://www.star-telegram.com/190/story/878782.html

[Bocadude85]

per 8pm advisory ts winds extend out 200 miles now

[KWT]

Not good news crazy but not all that surprising given how much of the convective coverage is over those islands at the moment.

tolakram, looks like the loop is over halfway complete now and I should imagine the 2nd half will take less time to complete then the first, quite a fair sized loop at that.

[TampaFl]

8:00pm postion - Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[storms in NC]

Is she caught up in that front?take a look and let me know what you think. Cause I don't know why she is going East

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Stephanie]

Is she caught up in that front?take a look and let me know what you think. Cause I don't know why she is going East

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Kind of looks that way to me too, but I think it's a part of that whole crazy loop she's been doing. I just don't know how she will get out of that trough.

[AdamFirst]

Is she caught up in that front?take a look and let me know what you think. Cause I don't know why she is going East

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

It was explained earlier while the main convection looks like its going east, it's really just shear

upper level shear is dominating at the moment

the system itself is merely still drifting

[stormy1970al]

Hanna looks like she is bound for the East Coast somewhere.

[storms in NC]

Thank you I went to eye dr and I really can't see well.

[Stephanie]

Is she caught up in that front?take a look and let me know what you think. Cause I don't know why she is going East

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

It was explained earlier while the main convection looks like its going east, it's really just shear

upper level shear is dominating at the moment

the system itself is merely still drifting

Thank you Adam.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tropical Storm Hanna should bring some drought
busting rains to Georgia and the Carolinas. Now right
now it is in weak steering currents, but a ULL seen
on water vapor near New England should
dip SW and a ridge build forcing Hanna into
Georgia and the Carolinas as mainly a very heavy
rain event.

[sunnyday]

Any opinions about ts watches/warnings for SE Fl? If and/or When? Thank you for your answer.

[AdamFirst]

The system itself IS going east, just not as fast as it looks. It is probably halfway through a cyclonic loop (a 360-degree turn, duh lol)

[fasterdisaster]

Hanna looks like she is bound for the East Coast somewhere.

Thank you Captain Obvious.

[KWT]

AdamFirst, yeah its right in the middle of a cyclonic loop, actually as it happens doesn't seem to be all that far away from completeing it given its now on a ENE motion.