ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MGC]

Looks like it just cranked out an outflow boundry so I doubt there is a curface circulation. Looks to me like 94L will race for the Yucatan. The probility of development is getting smaller. Only has another day or so left before land......MGC

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
535 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W S OF 20N WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESS NEAR 14N78W 1009 MB. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FLARE UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WITH SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY VERY CLOSE TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. DIFLUENT FLOW E
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS
ALLOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AND LOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS INDICATED
NE TO E WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON AND DETERMINED THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS NOT CLOSED AT
THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT
JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[gatorcane]

I'm shocked people are suggesting this will make landfall in honduras. That is absurd. I believe this is rapidly organizing over the warmest, most heat latent waters of the Atlantic and will form into a powerful hurricane that will move wnw and ultimately NW. This is just my opinion and we'll see what happens.

Three words as to why it is not (and has not) developed:

Upper Level Low

Alternatively I think the large meso-scale convection complex on Africa may have more of a circulation that 94L (sarcastic of course its only July). Chances are very low at this time this wave develops though so expect it to go poof soon. The Talkin Tropics Forum thread is where it is being discussed:

[Derek Ortt]

the thing could be inland in 12 hours

I've noticed that the models that develop this into a cyclone are forming the center a little north of where the inflow is feeding into. I am starting to have doubts (though an not sure at all) that this will actually clear Honduras

Derek where do you see the inflow going into the system? Any low level turning I see is located a bit NW of that southernmost blob....I see low level clouds moving NE directly north of the southern most blob. The turning I am seeing actually is already north of Honduras....that being said that area of convection is quite persistent and has been, so a center could also be forming there....Do you think the center will form closer to that southern blob?

I see the inflow at about 15.5N and 80W.This area is moving at a heading of about 275. Decent chance it does not clear Honduras... and if that happens its almost certainly good night, game over, drive home safely (and a lesson for many here)

[KWT]

Problem is wxman57 it does seem like any center is trying to form on the southern side and if it can't gain enough latitude then its pretty much doomed thanks to land. Still if it does develop a little something before land then who knows it may weaken a new center may take over if it gets far enough north to get back over water.

Still I agree its obviously looking more organised once again and once again its probably on the cusp but not quite there maybe still!

[KWT]

Only if it tracks as far north as that though hurricanelandfall, notice that would have to bend much further north then its current heading. I think looking at its current heading it probably will clear Honduras but that probably only gives this system an extra 6-9hrs over water before central America.

[Derek Ortt]

that forecast heading in the TCFA is well north of its true heading

[gatorcane]

Derek agreed -- I think another dead wave is imminent and is about ready to be swallowed up by Central America.

For those cheering for development of 94L, its not even August yet

July is a cyclone killer for Caribbean systems in general so there should be no surprise here

[KWT]

Well I'm not sure its dead as this does look pretty close to being a depression again just needs a slightly better defined circulation then we will have a TS but will we get that feature in time I wonder?

Also no you cannot use extrap but for the short term (say 6hrs anyway) usually thats a damn good indication of what will happen in this sort of set-up.

[southerngale]

You can not simply extrapolate the current track and use that as the forecast and say its going to hit Honduras. If all the NHC had to do was extrapolate a track then the XTRP model would be the best of all time. But it's not a good model for future track purposes because the track shifts.

You also can't assume this will form into a powerful hurricane that will move WNW and ultimately NW because one model run said so.

[gatorcane]

Well I'm not sure its dead as this does look pretty close to being a depression again just needs a slightly better defined circulation then we will have a TS but will we get that feature in time I wonder?

Also no you cannot use extrap but for the short term (say 6hrs anyway) usually thats a damn good indication of what will happen in this sort of set-up.

I see possibly heavy rains for Central America and Honduras with some decent winds though, but that would be expected from a strong tropical wave. Nothing more.

[Derek Ortt]

You can not simply extrapolate the current track and use that as the forecast and say its going to hit Honduras. If all the NHC had to do was extrapolate a track then the XTRP model would be the best of all time. But it's not a good model for future track purposes because the track shifts.

that's why as a meteorologist, I have to review the data to make that call.

based upon what I have seen with the low-level convergence being farther south than expected, Honduras is a distinct possibility. Could also go to the north. Looking maybe 60/40 to pass north of Honduras... but that means there is a 40% chance of moving over Honduras

What e should focus on is if this deos get into Honduras, the flooding and life threatening mudslides that may occur

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm shocked people are suggesting this will make landfall in honduras. That is absurd. I believe this is rapidly organizing over the warmest, most heat latent waters of the Atlantic and will form into a powerful hurricane that will move wnw and ultimately NW. This is just my opinion and we'll see what happens.

You also liked the 0Z GFDL Cat 5 in Houston forecast.

That sure would be exciting and all, rushing to buy gasoline and bottled water and batteries and all before they were gone, and people deciding whether to ride it out or spend 24 hours driving 250 miles, with the ones staying behind enjoying a week of Texas July weather without air conditioning. I have homeowners, andd I don't live in a flood zone, I'd just have to pay my deductible. maybe live in a trailer while waiting on a contractor. Lots of refineries on the coast in Houston. $6 gasoline would rock!

I'm dying to find out what it is like to be like the Katrina people in Mississippi and New Orleans, or the people in Dade County in 1992.




But that is besides the point. This hasn't organized yet, will probably track well South of Houston, probably South of Tampico. The GFDL seems to have been on crack, and I honestly see a worst case scenario like Claudette. Worst case, upper bounds. Strong Cat 1. The absolute limit. The other bound, which is bad because we need the rain (nice little shower, with even a rumble of thinder from a lone thunderhead with blue skies all around however this afternoon) is this wave travels so far South, it doesn't even bring rain to Texas.





Anyway, when Derek or MiamisensiWx or Wxman57 starts talking major hurricanes heading Northwest, then I'll start listening.

Nothing personal.

[Innotech]

I think this storm is way too unorganized to maintain a center into Honduras even. It has jumped northward before, and convection is still spread out all the way to Cuba. I think it may actually make it as far North as Belize City before hitting the peninsula. Also, interaction with that ULL could factor into steering it more northward. Honduras will likely get life-threatening rains from it at this point, but the main mass of thios storm is headed for higher latitudes.

[Cape Verde]

Oil companies don't set the oil price. They profit when the prices are higher, but it is supply and demand, and anticipated supply and demand. the anti-capitalist propaganda being put out by the main stream media works well with the uninformed and ignorant.

Edit to add- that was a little harsh, but I lost my job ten years ago when oil dropped to $10 barrel, and took a year to find a new job, and people with the reflexive distrust of an industry that provides a far greater service, with a lot more man power and investment, for smaller profit margins than, say, Coca Cola or bottled water really cheeses me off, as do discussions of 'obscene' salaries for biig oil company top execs who do a lot more work for less pay than say, Brad Pitt or George Clooney.

People tend to have strong opinions about the oil industry even when they're short on actual knowledge of how it works. Those opinions are often wrong, starting with the perception that oil companies set oil prices.

People probably know better, but they don't accept it. They want to blame prices on someone. The media and some unnamed jackasses in Congress throw fuel on the fire.

Despite all that, this storm, if it becomes a storm, doesn't threaten a whole lot of Gulf production as it is currently modeled. The biggest threat appears to be to Mexican production. It's just way too early to tell.

But the deepwater fields in the Gulf that produce a significant amount of oil are located more toward the Mississippi/Louisiana area. Western GOM storms threaten production, but not to the extent of ones projected further east.

[HURAKAN]

[PTrackerLA]

I think that image says it all!

[HURAKAN]

[Brent]

I think that image says it all!

It sure does.

[KWT]

Yep that really does suggest this is just going to continue to go around 275-280, the steering does turn more to the WNW in the BoC and even NW/N in the gulf but not sure it will make it that far north to latch onto the more northerly track.