ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Innotech]

I just hope it stays away while Im at the LSU game on saturday. I think it wont be in the gulf by that point yet though so it should be fine.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

My final thoughts as I'm going to bed.

The mid-level and low-level centers were not disrupted at all during the passage of Hispaniola. It appears that once it gets away from the island, it could undergo rapid intensification at any time.

lol your just full of good news this morning aren't you! well have a great night and get ready for another busy eventful day tomorrow!

[Wx_Warrior]

yep still a long road ahead...the problem is evacuating large cities will have to begin soon if you are in the cone.

[Innotech]

the waters and conditions right off the coast tend to weaken hurricanes as they come inland on Louisiana's coast. No way a cat 5 makes it inland. Remember how quickly Lili degraded to a Cat 1? This is a storm with a tiny core and wind radius. It will be very susceptible to the atmospheric changes as it nears land.

That's more than five days out. It doesn't take that long for a storm to morph from small to large, or even sometimes huge. Strong hurricanes tend to gather size and mass quickly except in unusual circumstances where the storm is riding in a bubble of little resistance surrounded by adverse circumstances.

Cyclone Tracy was a tiny storm (the entire system wasn't much more than 8 miles across) that devastated Darwin Australia. But the kind of storm that threatens NOLA is not a Cat-5, but a powerful storm with a large and well-organized circulation that has enough time to build a huge tidal surge ahead of it. In those cases, it's irrelevant how strong the hurricane is when it arrives at NOLA, the damage is already going to happen.

NOLA cannot withstand a Cat-4 or 5 storm at LA landfall that approaches from anywhere from the SSW to the SE that arrives with established size and strength, and whose core passes anywhere near NOLA proper. The shape of the Mississippi Delta and the squeegee effect on inshore surge, coupled with the rapid loss of barrier islands in the region offshore to the SE of NOLA almost ensures bad trouble if that happens.

Sorry to be a party pooper, but until NOLA builds Cat-5 resistant perimeter defenses, the city will always be in danger in every hurricane season.

most of my friends from the New Orleans area already moved around Lafayette to get out of the flood zones. Lots of family there was displaced and I think the area is much more prepared (mentally) for a big cane. infrastructurally however, I can assure you they arent and the city would once again be flooded. this time though, further damage would be minimal as most of those houses are a loss anyway.

[shah8]

Dude, by Saturday, it will be less than 72 hours before impact, by hwrf timing. There won't be a football game. How can you think of a football game? Is it salvation?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has as much chance of fellowing the GFDL in strength over the northern gulf as I've got at becoming a millionaire. Not going to happen. In fact I think it's more likely Texas might be in this systems sights, do I think it could become a very powerful storm, yes. Do I think this will be the first cat5 to hit the United states since Andrew, HELL NO.

I will run up and down a freeway covered with grass. With flowers in my hair if it does.

[soonertwister]

If the models keep verifying, well...the moderators will have to be nazis about posting rules. I don't think there is any way that the windspeeds will verify, especially for the hwrf (what was the most amazing thing about it was, it was an entire circle of basically cat 6 winds, there would be no "better side" of this storm. Thinking about it, how the hell would HH be able to do good recon in the gulf? It's pretty dangerous to sample cat5 storms.

Really, I'm still shell-shocked. About the one, single, wee bit of good news for NO is that they're the target this far out. That normally means that NO will not get hit. The other bit of *useful* take from this model is that we will *know* by Friday morning whether to expect the worst. The synoptics get simple at the end, as if hurricanes were just another cannonball in Summer's cannon.

There is no such thing as cat 6 winds, and no need to define such. Save yourself some posting grief by avoiding the nightmare scenarios that some models may predict more than five days out. Believe me, this board doesn't take kindly to hysteria. Any model predicting winds above 180 mph five days out is NOT going to be taken seriously by much of anyone.

[RL3AO]

GFDL wipes the Cayman islands away.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

GFDL wipes the Cayman islands away.

Remember Ivan hit the caymans. In they are still there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If the models keep verifying, well...the moderators will have to be nazis about posting rules. I don't think there is any way that the windspeeds will verify, especially for the hwrf (what was the most amazing thing about it was, it was an entire circle of basically cat 6 winds, there would be no "better side" of this storm. Thinking about it, how the hell would HH be able to do good recon in the gulf? It's pretty dangerous to sample cat5 storms.

Really, I'm still shell-shocked. About the one, single, wee bit of good news for NO is that they're the target this far out. That normally means that NO will not get hit. The other bit of *useful* take from this model is that we will *know* by Friday morning whether to expect the worst. The synoptics get simple at the end, as if hurricanes were just another cannonball in Summer's cannon.

There is no such thing as cat 6 winds, and no need to define such. Save yourself some posting grief by avoiding the nightmare scenarios that some models may predict more than five days out. Believe me, this board doesn't take kindly to hysteria. Any model predicting winds above 180 mph five days out is NOT going to be taken seriously by much of anyone.

I agree. There is no question that this could become very strong, but lets wait and see.

[ROCK]

This has as much chance of fellowing the GFDL in strength over the northern gulf as I've got at becoming a millionaire. Not going to happen. In fact I think it's more likely Texas might be in this systems sights, do I think it could become a very powerful storm, yes. Do I think this will be the first cat5 to hit the United states since Andrew, HELL NO.

I will run up and down a freeway covered with grass. With flowers in my hair if it does.

I agree Matt but I still would like to see you running down the freeway with flowers in your hair........

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This has as much chance of fellowing the GFDL in strength over the northern gulf as I've got at becoming a millionaire. Not going to happen. In fact I think it's more likely Texas might be in this systems sights, do I think it could become a very powerful storm, yes. Do I think this will be the first cat5 to hit the United states since Andrew, HELL NO.

I will run up and down a freeway covered with grass. With flowers in my hair if it does.

The GFDL shows it weakening down to 126kts right before landfall it could make landfall at that strength IMO. Instead of just saying it not going to happen why not back it up with some reasoning? When you have multiple models showing a cat 4 or 5 making landfall then its something that needs to be considered and not just said theres no way in He"" its going to happen with out solid facts to back it up!

[Wx_Warrior]

remember GFDL is supposed to be the golden child of models for NHC....If you believe in ridging...Louisiana may get gustav with a ridge building tues over Cen/SE Tx. But Cat 5? naah

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has as much chance of fellowing the GFDL in strength over the northern gulf as I've got at becoming a millionaire. Not going to happen. In fact I think it's more likely Texas might be in this systems sights, do I think it could become a very powerful storm, yes. Do I think this will be the first cat5 to hit the United states since Andrew, HELL NO.

I will run up and down a freeway covered with grass. With flowers in my hair if it does.

The GFDL shows it weakening down to 126kts right before landfall it could make landfall at that strength IMO. Instead of just saying it not going to happen why not back it up with some reasoning? When you have multiple models showing a cat 4 or 5 making landfall then its something that needs to be considered and not just said theres no way in He"" its going to happen with out solid facts to back it up!

LILI, Katrina, Rita. The only reason Camille did it was because of the loop was strong and close to the coast. Any storm that moves outside the loop north of 30 will weaken. Look at the sst's maps, it shows the loop this year to also be quite weak. In fact much weaker then 2005. I'm not going to say it can't happen just like there maybe a slight possibity of me becoming a millionaire.

[Innotech]

Dude, by Saturday, it will be less than 72 hours before impact, by hwrf timing. There won't be a football game. How can you think of a football game? Is it salvation?

absolutely.

[fasterdisaster]

GFDL is IMO easily the best of the models.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

GFDL is IMO easily the best of the models.

Based on a post I seen about Fay. The Gfs was the best.

[curtadams]

The GFDL and HWRF both overstrengthen storms frequently, often by crazy amounts. The tropical globals which are better with intensity - GFS, UKM, and NOGAPS - don't see Gustav becoming particularly strong, so this is likely one of those situations where the GFDL and HWRF are being overly bullish.

[Wx_Warrior]

I prefer the GFS and EURO but I call it like I see it..GFS is out to lunch right now having a "nooner" so to speak.

[HouTXmetro]

I prefer the GFS and EURO but I call it like I see it..GFS is out to lunch right now having a "nooner" so to speak.

Me Too, GFS EURO guy with a bias towards EURO