ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Brent]

That area does look interesting but it appears headed straight for land...

[Innotech]

well its not really like this storm has intelligent thought and can decide to put an LLC more northerly to avoid obstacles. If storms could do that Id be scared to death.

[jinftl]

Yep, 94L is at the same longitude as I am in Florida...it needs to gain latitude pretty quickly or it might just bypass the Gulf and even BoC.

That area does look interesting but it appears headed straight for land...

[superfly]

well its not really like this storm has intelligent thought and can decide to put an LLC more northerly to avoid obstacles. If storms could do that Id be scared to death.

Ivan danced around Cuba

[Brent]

well its not really like this storm has intelligent thought and can decide to put an LLC more northerly to avoid obstacles. If storms could do that Id be scared to death.

Ivan danced around Cuba

A lot of storms have danced around Jamaica lately also... Ivan was one, Dean was another.

[KWT]

Thats a good point if it doesn't pick up latitude soon its going to have a hard time even getting into the BoC yet alone the GoM, really got to start moving around 285-290 from now to have a good shot at getting into the BoC and far enough away from land to not to ahve to deal with that factor IMO.

[artist]

Update from Liguanea
From: NegrilTracy at aol.com
Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:56:47 EDT

Title: AOL Email
We had heavy rain off and on all night and today with wind gusts up to 40mph in Town and 30mph in Mobay but the fat lady hasn't sung yet so we will see what is still to come???
There may well be damage to low lying, coastal homes, zinc roofs etc already from the strong winds and we will soon find out I guess but there could be alot more coming our way before this is over
Scattered power outages were reported all over the island but we never lost ours and have genny ready in case we need her!!!
Will check back in later but have been up all night and need a nap now...
One Love,
Tracy

and

ODPEM Press Release #3: Strong Tropical Wave Moves Across Whole Island – Flash Flood Watch Now In Effect for All Parishes Until 5:00 a.m. Sunday
From: KMorris at odpem.org.jm
Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:33:20 -0500


Good Day Ladies & Gentlemen:

Please see below ODPEM Press Release #3 concerning the current tropical wave affecting weather conditions across the island:



With kind regards,

Ms. Kerry-Ann Morris
Information Officer
Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM)
12 Camp Road, Kingston 4, Jamaica
Tel: (876) 928-5111-4 * Fax: (876) 928-5503 * Email: kmorris at odpem.org.jm
"Everytime you smile at someone, it is an action of love, a gift to that person, a beautiful thing." Mother Teresa

If you are receiving this mail in error or you want to remove yourself from future mailings, please to send your request to kmorris at odpem.org.jm with "Removal Request" as the subject.
Attachment: Press Release3_Saturday, July 19, 2008.doc
Description: Binary data

and here is Jamaica radar
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

[Normandy]

From what I can see, I actually believe 94L might be trying to finally close something off... From what I can see there is some good inflow (especially into the southernmost blob) and all low level clouds directly ahead of 94L are not racing westward like they were yesterday....Overall the whole thing seems to have a bit more rotation in general as well. I think if recon goes tomorrow they will find a closed low.

[Derek Ortt]

the thing could be inland in 12 hours

I've noticed that the models that develop this into a cyclone are forming the center a little north of where the inflow is feeding into. I am starting to have doubts (though an not sure at all) that this will actually clear Honduras

[ronjon]

Thats a good point if it doesn't pick up latitude soon its going to have a hard time even getting into the BoC yet alone the GoM, really got to start moving around 285-290 from now to have a good shot at getting into the BoC and far enough away from land to not to ahve to deal with that factor IMO.

I really wouldn't focus on whether it will hit land or not since convection is basically strung out from 14N-20N. A LLC could form anywhere under the convection over the next day or so.

[Normandy]

the thing could be inland in 12 hours

I've noticed that the models that develop this into a cyclone are forming the center a little north of where the inflow is feeding into. I am starting to have doubts (though an not sure at all) that this will actually clear Honduras

Derek where do you see the inflow going into the system? Any low level turning I see is located a bit NW of that southernmost blob....I see low level clouds moving NE directly north of the southern most blob. The turning I am seeing actually is already north of Honduras....that being said that area of convection is quite persistent and has been, so a center could also be forming there....Do you think the center will form closer to that southern blob?

[KWT]

Problem is ronjon if a circulation is going to form its far more likely to do it right in the southern part which could, as Derek said be very close to land in the next 12-18hrs anyway so unless it picks up latitude very soon it may not have time to do anything!

[Ed Mahmoud]

the thing could be inland in 12 hours

I've noticed that the models that develop this into a cyclone are forming the center a little north of where the inflow is feeding into. I am starting to have doubts (though an not sure at all) that this will actually clear Honduras

I know we're not to notice thread page count, by this invest has come so close, for so many days, and held so much attention, and now just when it looked like it might finally reach the top of the hill, wham, Honduras.

If it keeps going WNW, it'll take the long way through Central America, which'll hurt its chances to be 92E next week.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Problem is ronjon if a circulation is going to form its far more likely to do it right in the southern part which could, as Derek said be very close to land in the next 12-18hrs anyway so unless it picks up latitude very soon it may not have time to do anything!

On a WNW heading, even if the center manages to stay just North of Honduras, it'll still run into Belize, and probably not quite make the Bay of Campeche, or just skim the Southern edge.


I think the excitement now is if Cristobal can make minimal hurricane strength by Hatteras. 94L is about to exit stage left.

[KWT]

Who knows though Ed exactly what track it wil ltake, I think if it does form a LLC it strengthens fairly readily and that may allow a more northerly track to ensure, we will just have to wait and see but indeed a WNW track still leads to a Central America hit.

[cycloneye]

Ed,I think the excitement will not be Cristobal but the new invest in the Atlantic very soon.Check it out at TT.

[gatorcane]

94L had its chance a few days ago where I do think it could have nominally been named a depression when it was near the Lesser Antilles or upon 94Ls inception in the MDR farther east of the Lesser Antilles.

I now give it a low chance of development. The Upper-Level Low is the primary reason we are seeing decent convection at all. It is also going to prohibit 94L from organizing much more than it is now. From WV loop analysis you can see it moving WSW and into the path 94L will be heading to.

In addition, since 94L won't be deepening it will start to interact with Honduras as it traverses just north or over Northern Honduras. It is not going to have a chance to tap into deeper steering currents and gain significant lattitude.

It's time to start looking elsewhere.

Good job to the pro mets especially Wxman and Derek Ortt for providing insight to arguments against those that thought (or wishcasted) 94L would become anything significant other than a strong wave or minimal depression.

[TheRingo]

This looks more like a NW track judging by the whole structure.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

the thing could be inland in 12 hours

I've noticed that the models that develop this into a cyclone are forming the center a little north of where the inflow is feeding into. I am starting to have doubts (though an not sure at all) that this will actually clear Honduras

I had to check the thread title to be sure I was on the Invest 94L thread. Not that's the old Derek of 3-4 days ago!

I think the wave is right on track this afternoon. Convection looks pretty impressive considering it's running into an upper low. Just before I left work I was commenting that it's looking better and better, and that I thought chances of development are increasing. But I still think it may not develop before crossing the Yucatan into the SW Gulf on Monday. There's PLENTY of energy with this wave, and much of that energy is already north of the BoC. Assuming the upper-winds drop off as predicted Monday afternoon, it may develop quite rapidly in the SW Gulf. Until then, though, it's fighting quite a battle with strong upper-level winds.