ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[superfly]

Coldest cloud tops are near -90C and the center is perhaps starting to warm.

[HURAKAN]

Boom.

[Tropicswatcher]

Looks like its moving to the NE last few frames. Lets see if this trend will continue. I'll be watching!

[cycloneye]

I would liked to have recon tonight but we will have to wait until tommorow afternoon.

[RL3AO]

There is a flight tonight.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 15/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0315A CYCLONE
C. 15/0400Z
D. 16.5N 68.2W
E. 15/0500Z TO 15/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[cycloneye]

There is a flight tonight.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 15/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0315A CYCLONE
C. 15/0400Z
D. 16.5N 68.2W
E. 15/0500Z TO 15/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

I hadnt looked at that as I am preparing,good to see.

[caribepr]

It never is quite how it looks;) The wind is just starting to pick up. We've had lightning for a while, some heard thunder, not much, but it's coming.
(by the way, just for trivia bits, Culebra is 19 or 17, facts vary, it seems) away from the big island of PR. And that is to Fajardo. San Juan is quite a bit farther away). Ok, the rains are starting to slash. Can't believe I'm still online!

[Tropicswatcher]

wobble watch is in effect! Every wobble from now on, will change the outcome here in Puerto Rico !

[caribepr]

I would liked to have recon tonight but we will have to wait until tommorow afternoon.

I'd like to have the answer to...WHERE? and WHEN? and HOW STRONG? Maybe one day, Luis, but not yet

[wxman57]

Oh I'm so glad I read that... NOT!!
I've seen too many storms change drastically in intensity forecasts in only a few hours. It's still the most difficult part of the forecast. I hope this doesn't get any stronger, but honestly, while it's in the Caribbean, I don't see anything to stop it.

bvigal,

You can take comfort in the fact that hurricane force winds are forecast to only extend out to 10-15 miles west of the track and the current forecast takes the center at least 30 miles east of you (assuming it doesn't shift back west). The BVI Office of Disaster Preparedness is a client of ours. Our forecast, based upon the current track and intensity, was for winds of 50-60 mph sustained there.

[caribepr]

Assuming it doesn't shift back west...what are those probabilities? I've been asked that a lot this evening.

[wxman57]

wobble watch is in effect! Every wobble from now on, will change the outcome here in Puerto Rico !

The current forecast track and wind radii keeps San Juan out of all TS force winds, by the way.

[Jam151]

Famous Typhoon Omar footage from Yigo, Guam:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1GtQr7eL-k

Typhoon names in the Atlantic often seem to become strong hurricanes...Joan, Ivan, Keith, Rita, Wilma, Ike, now possibly Omar...

[Tropicswatcher]

wobble watch is in effect! Every wobble from now on, will change the outcome here in Puerto Rico !

The current forecast track and wind radii keeps San Juan out of all TS force winds, by the way.

Thats right, wxman57! At least with the 5pm forecast track. Will see if this track verifies or if they have to shift it westward later on!

[Derek Ortt]

this looks more like a repeat of Lenny as time goes on

[Just Joshing You]

Does the GFDL predict that, Derek?

[caribepr]

wobble watch is in effect! Every wobble from now on, will change the outcome here in Puerto Rico !

The current forecast track and wind radii keeps San Juan out of all TS force winds, by the way.

I was going to ask...what about us, because what applies to SJ does NOT apply to Culebra...and then I realized I was turning into someone (wow...serious long thunder roll here) I can't stand, asking the eternal, *tell me I'm going to be okay. So never mind. But it would be a delight if some day we know more faster. I personally don't think that will ever happen, because Nature does as Nature does...closer would be fine though!

[Ola]

18:00 GFDL back over eastern Puerto Rico

BTW Im getting this from looking at TD 16 run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Driftin]

channel 11 met Monzon seemed a bit worried ata the end of her telecast this afternoon. She still did not want to commit to the current track and that any shift to the west would be very dangerous to PR.

[cycloneye]

channel 11 met Monzon seemed a bit worried ata the end of her telecast this afternoon. She still did not want to commit to the current track and that any shift to the west would be very dangerous to PR.

Yes I saw that and she looked worried. The 11 PM Track will be very important.