ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks more and more like my Cancun vacation this week is going to be bad....

Chill out man...no one has any idea whats going to happen. So itll rain a little...it rains everyday in the tropics. The GFDL has probably lost its mind in terms of strength, but a track like that is somewhat believable. I was in Cozumel during spring break on a cruise and rained like hell the whole day, but we had fun anyway...theres lots of stuff to do down there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Most of the tourist hotels stood up to Hurricane Wilma pretty well, so I wouldn't worry about that.

[MWatkins]

Looking at the SHIPS guidance (and using synoptic meteorology) the environment for 94L is going to become very favorable for development by the middle of this weekend. Given how vigirous this system has been, and how it has maintained pretty deep convection under some very hostile conditions...there is some concern that things can change significantly by Sunday.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 22 21 15 16 13 21 5 8 5 2 1


94L will be moving into the environment that 95L is currently enjoying (and is why that system looks so impressive in satellite imagery) starting tomorrow, when shear relaxes under 20 knots (in the model) and by Sunday, there is virtually no shear.

Moreover, if 96L develops there could be some impact on the track of 94L. There may be less ridging to the north than currently forecast by the models.

MW

[Ivanhater]

Looking at the SHIPS guidance (and using synoptic meteorology) the environment for 94L is going to become very favorable for development by the middle of this weekend. Given how vigirous this system has been, and how it has maintained pretty deep convection under some very hostile conditions...there is some concern that things can change significantly by Sunday.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 22 21 15 16 13 21 5 8 5 2 1


94L will be moving into the environment that 95L is currently enjoying (and is why that system looks so impressive in satellite imagery) starting tomorrow, when shear relaxes under 20 knots (in the model) and by Sunday, there is virtually no shear.

Moreover, if 96L develops there could be some impact on the track of 94L. There may be less ridging to the north than currently forecast by the models.

MW

Great analysis Mike..Im not watching this as I once was, but still watching from a distance...

[coreyl]

Looking at the SHIPS guidance (and using synoptic meteorology) the environment for 94L is going to become very favorable for development by the middle of this weekend. Given how vigirous this system has been, and how it has maintained pretty deep convection under some very hostile conditions...there is some concern that things can change significantly by Sunday.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 22 21 15 16 13 21 5 8 5 2 1


94L will be moving into the environment that 95L is currently enjoying (and is why that system looks so impressive in satellite imagery) starting tomorrow, when shear relaxes under 20 knots (in the model) and by Sunday, there is virtually no shear.

Moreover, if 96L develops there could be some impact on the track of 94L. There may be less ridging to the north than currently forecast by the models.

MW

What would less ridging to the north mean?

[RL3AO]

What would less ridging to the north mean?

It would allow a developed storm to possibly curve into the GOM instead of moving west into the Yucatan.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, I just replied to a post, and it said my post didn't exist, and now I don't see the post I replied to.



Anyway, was just saying GFDL seems an outlier, and if 94L does develop (it might in a day or two), Nicaragua to the Yucatan, with a possible second landfall South of Texas, maybe bringing some squalls and rough seas to Padre Island, but no major impact.


In my unofficial opinion.


Edit to add- unofficial opinion based on 3/4 of GFS ensembles, Canadian and Euro. Euro suggests a landfall in Mexico close enough to bring some sensible wx to BRO area.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmm, I just replied to a post, and it said my post didn't exist, and now I don't see the post I replied to.



Anyway, was just saying GFDL seems an outlier, and if 94L does develop (it might in a day or two), Nicaragua to the Yucatan, with a possible second landfall South of Texas, maybe bringing some squalls and rough seas to Padre Island, but no major impact.


In my unofficial opinion.


Edit to add- unofficial opinion based on 3/4 of GFS ensembles, Canadian and Euro. Euro suggests a landfall in Mexico close enough to bring some sensible wx to BRO area.

It not that far of an outlier...models with similar tracks include the BAMM, and the HWRF as well. Also, remember that yesterday, the gfdl and the cmc were the most southerly models. They have all shifted northward. Even the cmc, which showed landfall in central nicaragua now shows a track closer to the southern yucatan. I wonder what will happen in the coming days.

[KWT]

TRhe models do seem to be trending northwards but right now its very deep, its going to have to pick up some lattiude very soon if its not going to slam into central America and I just can't see it strengthening quickly enough if it all to be able to make a turn to the north west in time, saying that who knows what will happen, right now shear is too high for anything but the models do have shear lowering in the western Caribbean/

[Stormcenter]

Way too early to make any call on this one. But just looking at the current situation I don't like it's chances of affecting anyone in the U.S mainland if it were to develop. Just my opinion.

[chadtm80]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll get nervous tomorrow afternoon if that trend continues for a couple more model cycles. But not yet.

[oyster_reef]

We may end up with a GOMer on our hands...
That GFSL is looking ominous.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Boy if the models continue to show tracks like this for 94L over the weekend and 96L does something this site will be overrun with so many "what-if's" and "wobble watchers' it will probably melt down, especially if they both decide to develop at the same time.

[KWT]

All I will say with the models is remember what they kept doing with Dean and remember what actually happened, i think the key like with so many other systems is if this actually develops and how strong it does develop if it can get going.

[HouTXmetro]

All I will say with the models is remember what they kept doing with Dean and remember what actually happened, i think the key like with so many other systems is if this actually develops and how strong it does develop if it can get going.

There were a couple of maor outliers with Dean, but the majority pegged Dean a tad North of where it hit.

[KWT]

I was more talking about what the GFDL was estimating it to do, indeed the Euro model I remember did very well in the track forecast once Dean was developed.

I think once again the GFDL is to ofar north but we will have to wait and see, I can imagine its rather under-estimating the upper high just like it did with Dean.

Still if it can form and gain enough lattiude to reach the Yucatan it may yet need to be watched.

[wxman57]

All I will say with the models is remember what they kept doing with Dean and remember what actually happened, i think the key like with so many other systems is if this actually develops and how strong it does develop if it can get going.

I was going to point out that the models have been trying to move 94L north for quite a while. See this earlier forecast that moved it through the NE Caribbean. 94L has consistently moved left of all guidance. And GFDL/HWRF have been the worst models with 94L so far. Go back and check the model plot archive (aal94 2008...)
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... c/archive/

[Ivanhater]

Well to be fair wxman, if 94L would of developed like the models showed im sure it would have moved to the NE caribbean, however when the models backed off development they have been spot on with track, now that they are developing 94L again to even a possible hurricane they show this getting into the Gulf, and if 96L develops, there will be a weakness, not sure if enough to really get this to turn north, but this discussion is all for not if it doesnt develop...

I even believe you said yesterday, this may try to get its act together in the Western Caribbean...seems like conditions look pretty good once there

[cheezyWXguy]

All I will say with the models is remember what they kept doing with Dean and remember what actually happened, i think the key like with so many other systems is if this actually develops and how strong it does develop if it can get going.

I was going to point out that the models have been trying to move 94L north for quite a while. See this earlier forecast that moved it through the NE Caribbean. 94L has consistently moved left of all guidance. And GFDL/HWRF have been the worst models with 94L so far. Go back and check the model plot archive (aal94 2008...)
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... c/archive/

Then again, that was right when it formed, and at the time of that model run Bertha was supposed to leave a weakness and be dead by then. However, as 94l passed long south of the weakness, models began shifting back west i believe. But even the southern outlier, the cmc, is shifting northward again. Much uncertainty in the days to come.