ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HurricaneHunter914]

Knowing the NHC, they'll probably wait till recon gets there before upgrading. I say Fay by 2am tomorrow. What a beauty, I'm gone for 3 hours and she forms very impressive convection over the LLC.

[SouthFLTropics]

wxman57, wow those models really have shifted east, none hitting Florida anymore and a couple curving it northeast away from the US all together....They must be smelling a weakness in the ridge.... While I may not agree, perhaps there will be a weakness. When they all start converging into the same area like this, I'm thinking that they may be on to something...

I could be wrong but I think what the BAMS are seeing is the current setup...not the setup 4-5 days from now. We can all hope that this will pan out and 92L will have little impact on the islands and head out to the fishies...

Realistically speaking though I'd have to agree with Wxman that we will see the models flop back and forth for a few days...it's just a bit too early right now. Plus, I don't put much faith in the BAMS...

Also, I generally feel more comfortable when the 5 day cone is right on me...because I know it will change. When it's away from me I get more nervous because it may change in my direction...

SouthFLTropics

[ronjon]

I dunno but 92L looks to be moving due west toward the center of PR and Hispanola. I don't see any evidence of a W-NW movement. Maybe the CMC might be correct with this one?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't really speak for WXMAN, but from my perspective
BAMS are about worthless right now
Not sure on the Ridge strength right now
Fairly close to the LLC...

I think the high will be strong enough to push this into Florida. That is JMO.

Also, I also believe it is very close to become a deprssion. In the fact the nhc see's it more northward gives it more chance to become a tropical storm.

the first thing i did after i read your post was check your location and that tells me i spend way to much time on this board, lol

What is your problem? People all over the world enjoy this board, I personally wish you would stop this.

[wxman57]

The official NHC postion, 18.3N 64.6W is right here in the BVI all right.

We have had no wind, and no heavy rains yet, but it's starting to rain again. Radar shows some good squalls moving in... when they hit, we'll have wind. In fact, I can hear it gusting out there now. Sounds like squalls, horizontal rain, LOL.

rats! thought this posted and walked away, came back and it's still here...

Stay inside, bvigal! You're in the eye. The 5 mph wind is going to return with the same fury from the opposite direction shortly!

[RL3AO]

Knowing the NHC, they'll probably wait till recon gets there before upgrading. I say Fay by 2am tomorrow. What a beauty, I'm gone for 3 hours and she forms very impressive convection over the LLC.

The NOAA plane will be at 650mb again and I doubt the AF plane is going.

[Aric Dunn]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

[HURAKAN]

As we gaze at small 92L it's impossible not to be amazed by the non-tropical cyclone near Canada. Impressive for this time of the year.

[dixiebreeze]

14/2345 UTC 18.5N 63.0W T2.0/2.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Potential Fay is sprucing up tonight

[Derek Ortt]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

reminds me of Erin last year

Sat looked impressive... but very little at the surface

[Bocadude85]

the first thing i did after i read your post was check your location and that tells me i spend way to much time on this board, lol[/quote]


What is your problem? People all over the world enjoy this board, I personally wish you would stop this.[/quote]

IM pretty sure they were looking to see if you live in Florida and were -removed- this storm into Florida thats all....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Very low confidence, but if I stare at long range San Juan radar loops long enough, the center is near St. Croix.

[Aric Dunn]

no development tonight.. probably no tomorrow either.. unless something happens and we can get a decent surface reflection.. otherwise between PR and DR the chances are down, again unless it stays north of both the islands, right now its sick...

I should go bowling ...

[SouthFLTropics]

The official NHC postion, 18.3N 64.6W is right here in the BVI all right.

We have had no wind, and no heavy rains yet, but it's starting to rain again. Radar shows some good squalls moving in... when they hit, we'll have wind. In fact, I can hear it gusting out there now. Sounds like squalls, horizontal rain, LOL.

rats! thought this posted and walked away, came back and it's still here...

Stay inside, bvigal! You're in the eye. The 5 mph wind is going to return with the same fury from the opposite direction shortly!

All kidding aside, I think this is the strangest invest/developing system I have ever tracked. Everything is perfect for intensification (aside from land interaction) and it still hasn't been upgraded due to no LLC. I'm baffled...

[jlauderdal]

I think the high will be strong enough to push this into Florida. That is JMO.

Also, I also believe it is very close to become a deprssion. In the fact the nhc see's it more northward gives it more chance to become a tropical storm.[/quote]

the first thing i did after i read your post was check your location and that tells me i spend way to much time on this board, lol[/quote]


What is your problem? People all over the world enjoy this board, I personally wish you would stop this.[/quote]

relax cowboy, i checked your location because when i saw the Florida forecast i thought you might be from Florida hoping it comes OUR way

[orion]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

It sure is... here is an image with the range rings set on the 18.3, 64.6 position. And I see... not much! lol

[Just Joshing You]

LOL wxman57 has a sense of humor!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

It sure is... here is an image with the range rings set on the 18.3, 64.6 position. And I see... not much! lol

did i tell everyone that i have been laughing at the coordinates that are supposed to be official.. i can say one thing for sure... nothing at those coordinates...

[jlauderdal]

the first thing i did after i read your post was check your location and that tells me i spend way to much time on this board, lol

What is your problem? People all over the world enjoy this board, I personally wish you would stop this.[/quote]

IM pretty sure they were looking to see if you live in Florida and were -removed- this storm into Florida thats all....[/quote]

bingo, thats exactly what was happening but matt didnt pick up on that apparently

[ConvergenceZone]

no development tonight.. probably no tomorrow either.. unless something happens and we can get a decent surface reflection.. otherwise between PR and DR the chances are down, again unless it stays north of both the islands, right now its sick...

I should go bowling ...

well, I hope you are right about no development tonight and maybe not tomorrow either. The later it develops, the less chance of it becomming anything too strong to worry about...