ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Johnny]

After hearing reports along the coast and places inland this morning, the wind will be very minor at most inland locations...won't be much of an issue at all.The rain doesn't seem to be MUCH of a factor either. I don't see any major flooding problems coming out of this exept for isolated pockets here and there. Hell, I guess I should of gone into work today.

[Smurfwicked]

What upsets me is the fact that just 24 hours ago, AW (a/k/a JB) "predicted" that Ed would make landfall in the Houston Area as a 980 mb hurricane...

My question is for the professional meteorologists here, and, is more of a moral concern than scientific - what professionally can be done to censure this man's constant "disaster forecasting", which only causes unnecessary fear?

Similar to other professions (Physicians, Attorneys, etc.), there must be some sort of Code of Ethics that this professional meteorologist must abide to - is there any way to "report" his constant unprofessional behavior, which seems to be his form of -removed-?

Thanks,

Frank

A lot of people (even pro mets chimed in on this) hours before thought the NHC should put a hurricane warning due to its proximity of hurricane strength was seemingly likely to become that just before landfall. Looking at it now, I think that is a good thing they didn't because people would really under estimate a real hurricane in the future from what I'm seeing out this system thus far.

edit: However what you're pointing out 24 hours ago isn't like it was completely out of the realm of possibilities. A lot of people expected more from this system.

[mpic]

After hearing reports along the coast and places inland this morning, the wind will be very minor at most inland locations...won't be much of an issue at all.The rain doesn't seem to be MUCH of a factor either. I don't see any major flooding problems coming out of this exept for isolated pockets here and there. Hell, I guess I should of gone into work today.

Me, too. I stayed home thnking that it might be rougher when I got off at 1pm and then it came on in pretty fast.

Is there anything to indicate thunderstorm activity AFTER this blows through?

[Frank2]

Smurf,

Thanks for that comment - the NHC hit the nail on the head once again...

Last evening, Steve Lyons noted that there were two ULL's just west and southwest of Ed (I noticed that yesterday afternoon, too), and, he mentioned that created the not-so-favorable conditions to the west of the system...

P.S. Employers might decide to charge a vacation day for those who did not report to work this morning - it happened here to many who stayed home for Hurricane Jeanne (2004), which only marginally affected this area...

[Johnny]

Anyone want any water? I've got 6 cases of it.

Radar trends are showing a brick wall just east of my area. I live about 6 miles west of I-45 in central Montgomery County. As soon as the heavier convection hits I-45 coming in from the east, it just dies off. I've been watching it do this for the past hour and half.

[funster]

Smurf,

Thanks for that comment - the NHC hit the nail on the head once again...

No, it definitely was no bullseye - they were off as it went farther north then they had pegged just a couple days out and they were forced to adjust and correct. However, they got the intensity perfect.

[mpic]

The worst part of the band just came through here and wasn't all that bad. A few limbs down, but not major.

[HURAKAN]

[Tireman4]

Well, for me, I will say that I was just telling people to listen to the National Hurricane Center for the updates. I was saying ( and I could so be wrong) that the NHC/TPC was doing a good job. I still think that they are. I think they only missed the landfall area by 15-20 miles, which in this time, is incredible. Think back when hurricane prediction was totally hit and miss. I believe also I was cautioning people on here not to get caught up in the adrenaline rushes. That guests do read these boards and might be thinking on letting their guard down when maybe they should not. For that, I stand by my statements. If I offended anyone, I do apologize.

[Derek Ortt]

Smurf,

Thanks for that comment - the NHC hit the nail on the head once again...

No, it definitely was no bullseye - they were off as it went farther north then they had pegged just a couple days out and they were forced to adjust and correct. However, they got the intensity perfect.

come on!

The forecast error was quite small in comparison to the long term mean

Why is it that we are seeing an increase in jabs at pro metsthis season? What is going on here? Is it an increase in children posting?

[Sanibel]

It's obvious from the shape that it would have continued to intensify if it stayed over water. The west side wrapped in deep moisture. Kind of like the pot calling the kettle black.

[funster]

No, it definitely was no bullseye - they were off as it went farther north then they had pegged just a couple days out and they were forced to adjust and correct. However, they got the intensity perfect.

come on!

The forecast error was quite small in comparison to the long term mean

Why is it that we are seeing an increase in jabs at pro metsthis season? What is going on here? Is it an increase in children posting?

There was no jab at all at the NHC in what I said. I just said it wasn't a perfect bullseye. I even said they got the intensity perfect.

[Tireman4]

Derek,

I think the NHC did a great job again. Kudos to the men and women there.

[Frank2]

Except for that JB fella, the rest of the professional meteorologists, have behaved, well, professionally...

LOL

[Smurfwicked]

Well, for me, I will say that I was just telling people to listen to the National Hurricane Center for the updates. I was saying ( and I could so be wrong) that the NHC/TPC was doing a good job. I still think that they are. I think they only missed the landfall area by 15-20 miles, which in this time, is incredible. Think back when hurricane prediction was totally hit and miss. I believe also I was cautioning people on here not to get caught up in the adrenaline rushes. That guests do read these boards and might be thinking on letting their guard down when maybe they should not. For that, I stand by my statements. If I offended anyone, I do apologize.

I've got no problem with the NHC forecast. I think people in the whole watch should monitor and prepare. I think its silly of all of you who want them to tell you exactly where its going 3 days before hand! Long as its in the cone, nobody should be able to point fingers.

However I do believe southern Galveston Island and Sabine Pass is much farther than 20 miles apart.

BTW I think a lot of people who would be posting right now the ones with the best details are without power.

[mpic]

Smurf,

Thanks for that comment - the NHC hit the nail on the head once again...

No, it definitely was no bullseye - they were off as it went farther north then they had pegged just a couple days out and they were forced to adjust and correct. However, they got the intensity perfect.

come on!

The forecast error was quite small in comparison to the long term mean

Why is it that we are seeing an increase in jabs at pro metsthis season? What is going on here? Is it an increase in children posting?

I think it's just the day we live in. People have everything under the sun available upon demand in an instant so feel that a professional should be as perfect and in control. Unfortunately, Mother Nature cannot be so controlled or predicted.

[Tireman4]

Well here in good ol Humble (17 miles northeast of Houston), we had one rainband with gusts up to 30 MPH and a good rain. It is still raining, but not too hard

[Stormcenter]

Smurf,

Thanks for that comment - the NHC hit the nail on the head once again...

No, it definitely was no bullseye - they were off as it went farther north then they had pegged just a couple days out and they were forced to adjust and correct. However, they got the intensity perfect.

come on!

The forecast error was quite small in comparison to the long term mean

Why is it that we are seeing an increase in jabs at pro metsthis season? What is going on here? Is it an increase in children posting?

The way I'm looking at it from now on as long as landfall is within their "cone" then they did a great job. IMO

[Smurfwicked]

Well here in good ol Humble (17 miles northeast of Houston), we had one rainband with gusts up to 30 MPH and a good rain. It is still raining, but not too hard

I haven't seen any rain here in North Beaumont for about a hour now, but I did just get one rare freak gust that I would think be somewhere close to 45-50mph. Sustained winds have died down compared to what they was 20 minutes ago and the stronger gust are less frequent.

Which let me add that I thought most of this over before those winds picked up about significantly about 45 minutes ago.

The way I'm looking at it from now on as long as landfall is within their "cone" then they did a great job. IMO

Exactly... People are wanting a bit much IMO to not want to have to be prepared if the landfall is slightly off.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This was similar to Charley, with a nearly parallel angle of approach to the coast, and only a minute error in direction produced a significant difference in landfall location.


Although, big scheme, difference between Galveston and High Island isn't that huge anyway.