ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[crazycajuncane]

There are several people that were rude to posters who said this storm would hit around TX / LA border. I am not surprised by this, but I hope in the future this along with all the other examples that the storm does not follow a solid line.

It clearly jogged to the east of the Houston / Galveston hit. Even when this thing was changing track at 10 pm last night several posters could not "believe" this storm would hit elsewhere.

Discussion on these forums is great, but I will say it again... as long as you are in the cone you better be ready. If this storm would have been a Cat. 3 and the same thing happened (oh wait didn't this happen during Rita?) a lot of people could have been affected in severe ways.

[jordanmills]

At least most of you guys still have power as of right now.After Wilma I lost power for 9 days.

Wilma was a TAD different.

[southerngale]

At least most of you guys still have power as of right now.After Wilma I lost power for 9 days.

Edouard is no Wilma. I didn't have power for 2 weeks after Rita and don't have any now, either, but I know it won't be anywhere near that long for Edouard. I'm at my parent's house, who still have power... and hopefully, keep it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What an insane tropical storm this has been! I decided to move from Galveston to High Island at around 5am, and that was a great call. Winds in High Island were easily in excess of tropical storm strength, and gusts were well over 60mph. I watched the winds rip apart a metal roof, blow around signs, shake trees violently, and blow across the road with full force. I shot plenty of nice footage as this was happening, and plan on posting it after I return to Orlando.

[Smurfwicked]

At least most of you guys still have power as of right now.After Wilma I lost power for 9 days.

I went 1 month without power after rita and thats not including the 2 weeks we was evacuated! My moms neighborhood went a whole additional month after I got my power on.

But honestly I think the post rita energy grid is built better than it was before, before rita I'd lose power in the small t-storms now I rarely lose power in the worst t-storms.

[hurrican19]

KFDM Instaweather station at Lamar University in Beaumont

The only thing about the Lamar weatherbug station that KFDM doesn't mention, is that this station is mounted a LOT higher than any other reporting weatherbug station in SETX. I had emailed them a few years ago asking them WHY Lamar ALWAYS had the highest wind gust reports out of all the stations in SETX, and they replied back telling me that was due to the stations height (I think it is mounted on top of one of their buildings somewhere). I'll have to see if I still have that email saved (I delete nothing, lol).

[jabman98]

Nice soaking rain here at the moment. I'm just slightly north and west of downtown Houston. Traffic is light. Normally we've got a bunch of cars going by outside on our street. Hardly any today. Happy to get some rain.

What's up with storms headed for Texas going east/north at the last minute? Rita did that. Dolly went slightly north. Now Edouard has done the same thing. Is there something about the topography of the GOM in this area, or the prevailing winds, or something that causes this to happen? Or are these just three data points and essentially random chance and thus meaningless?

[boca]

I know Edouard is no Wilma and at least your getting the beneficial rains that you need over there and hopefully no real long power outages.

[CajunMama]

Make that now a 6 hour delay. Gee thanks ed

[crazycajuncane]

Make that now a 6 hour delay. Gee thanks ed

CajunMama,

Makes for quite the annoying day!

Where are you headed?

[Chacor]

edit. And why are we still under hurricane watch?

The possibility of hurricane-force gusts I guess.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the LLC is tracking west towards Central Houston. We could have flooding problems.

[Dick Pache]

[img][/img]Refresh this page
8770570 Sabine Pass North, TX Water levals and pressure at land fall

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcom ... orth%2C+TX
I could not get the graphic to print out in the post

[Sanibel]

The south side wrapped in good deep banded moisture. So the moisture did win out over the dry with that last final burst last night. A dry band is still visible going into the center from the SW. However this storm would have gotten to hurricane if it was further south and had a little more time over water.

Houston got its rain.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personal forecast verification

Forecast #1 (original)

Projected landfall intensity: 55-60 kt (65-70 mph)
Projected landfall location: "Immediate vicinity of Galveston" (<15 mi of city)

Forecast #2

Projected landfall intensity: 55-60 kt (65-70 mph)
Projected landfall location: Mouth of Galveston Bay to S High Island

Verification:

Actual landfall location: "ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN HIGH
ISLAND AND SABINE PASS IN THE MCFADDIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE"
Actual landfall intensity: 55 kt (65 mph)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/051159.shtml

Overall, my intensity (1-min wind range and TS status) was nailed, but I performed more poorly on the landfall location.

Hopefully, everyone will remain safe during this event. Heavy precip/isolated tornadoes will be a big issue, as well as some strong winds.

[dwg71]

Looks like the LLC is tracking west towards Central Houston. We could have flooding problems.

the center is well east of that and will move north of downtown houston. flooding will be the only issue harris county will have to deal with.

[Smurfwicked]

My neighbor is outside tying a extension cord around a tree that brushed against his house to a metal cyclone fence post. So idotic IMO. I had to video tape it, I just hope I don't get sued when I put it on youtube.

But the winds are really kicking at the moment I was mislead in believe what the local mets said about a hour before that that was the worst of it. But its far from being intense, just pointing out that its just starting to make its way into northern beaumont.

[Stormcenter]

Not bad at all in Beaumont....had a few squalls early this morning but that's
about it. I was expecting more.

[Frank2]

What upsets me is the fact that just 24 hours ago, AW (a/k/a JB) "predicted" that Ed would make landfall in the Houston Area as a 980 mb hurricane...

My question is for the professional meteorologists here, and, is more of a moral concern than scientific - what professionally can be done to censure this man's constant "disaster forecasting", which only causes unnecessary fear?

On the other hand, to his credit, Steve Lyons (TWC) bucked this nasty trend earlier this morning to say that Ed would not be anything more than it already was...

Similar to other professions (Physicians, Attorneys, etc.), there must be some sort of Code of Ethics that professional meteorologists must abide to - is there any way to "report" JB's constant unprofessional behavior, which seems to be his form of -removed-?

Thanks,

Frank

P.S. Admin - if you think this is better on the general discussion board, I'd be glad to move it there...

[MiamiensisWx]

There are several people that were rude to posters who said this storm would hit around TX / LA border. I am not surprised by this, but I hope in the future this along with all the other examples that the storm does not follow a solid line.

It clearly jogged to the east of the Houston / Galveston hit. Even when this thing was changing track at 10 pm last night several posters could not "believe" this storm would hit elsewhere.

Discussion on these forums is great, but I will say it again... as long as you are in the cone you better be ready. If this storm would have been a Cat. 3 and the same thing happened (oh wait didn't this happen during Rita?) a lot of people could have been affected in severe ways.

I completely concur with the message of your post, and everyone should always focus on the cone, but I hope you don't believe my forecasts were intentionally abrasive. Everyone has different interpretations of the TC's steering in a specified synoptic environment, and nailing down the more specific details in regards to landfall location is always difficult. My judgement of the intensity (strong TS near 55-60 kt) was excellent, but my landfall location was a painful bust, as it was too far SW. I differed from some people's "Texas/Louisiana border strike" because of my assessment of the steering. However, please do not believe I was dismissing the Louisiana impacts. In fact, I was not downplaying the threat to SW Louisiana, as I emphasized it in several posts. TCs are not a single coordinate. Forecasting is a difficult science (even within 24 hours), as mentioned. Unlike Rita, the synoptic pattern was different in this case, which explains why I went with a landfall SW of the Texas/Louisiana border.

I hope I explained my position. I apologize for the brief OT stint as well.

Regardless, it appears that Edouard's maximum 65 mph winds may be affecting a sparsely populated area, though lower TS winds are affecting adjacent populated areas.