ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[canegrl04]

If it doesn't become a TD by this time tomorrow,theres clearly no hope for it to develope.Untill then,I am not going to give up just yet.Its been a tough wave for quite awhile now

[mattpetre]

If it doesn't become a TD by this time tomorrow,theres clearly no hope for it to develope.Untill then,I am not going to give up just yet.Its been a tough wave for quite awhile now

I don't think that's really true. Even as a weak wave, with lots of convection, conditions could be very ripe in the GOM.

[vbhoutex]

I think the calls of 94L's demise are way too early. It appears with the help of the ULL that the convection is once again firing. However, as stated above there, imo, is not anything near a closed circulation(LLCC). As it moves W to WNW it will be moving into better conditions, especially when it gets into the GOM, which I think it will. I don't expect it to get classified until it gets into the BOC/GOM. Once there I would expect development into at least a mid level TS with a track somewhere into Mexico S. of Braownsville. Those of us in Texas could sure use the rain that may be produced!! At least we should get a good moisture flow to enhance our chances of rainfall next week.

[Nimbus]

19/1145 UTC 14.3N 76.1W T1.5/1.5 94L

Looks like it moved almost due west from where I saw it this morning.

If the current convective burst doesn't shear off there might be something near 78 W by 10PM.

[MCWX]

The upper low is still in a bad position, NW of the wave, moving in tandem, causing shear. If you look at the vapor loop, it is pretty obvious. If the ULL was a 150 miles further W, it would be causing a more favorable venting pattern... but it is definitely being sheared at this moment.
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Perhaps a perspective that what will ultimately develop will not be purely tropical. This might provide more insight into what some of the global models have been trying to suggest along with the current "elongated" cloud signature.

[KatDaddy]

Looks like it trying another run at TD status. The ULL is clear visible on the WV loop moving WSW toward Central America and creating ventilation.

[wxman57]

wxman, I know you don't agree with the northerly models showing tx, la landfall, but what are they seeing to show a track that takes the system that far north?

The models that take it farther north develop it very quickly and steer it with higher-level winds, north of the upper low. Since it's not likely to develop too quickly, a more WNW track is likely.

[wxman57]

19/1145 UTC 14.3N 76.1W T1.5/1.5 94L

Looks like it moved almost due west from where I saw it this morning.

If the current convective burst doesn't shear off there might be something near 78 W by 10PM.

Wow! I just looked at that longitude above. I put it along the wave axis approaching 78.5W at 10am (and up around 15.5N), just west of the convection. Of course there is no "center", but I'd think it would from along or just east of the wave axis vs. 150 miles to the ESE. Maybe there's some mid-level rotation around 14.3N/76.1W, but surface pressures are lower to the west. Doesn't look like anything but an open wave today. Maybe tomorrow afternoon.

[americanrebel]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looking at this, I think I would put the center somewheres around 15.5 N and 77.3 W. This is just my humble opinion though. Lets just agree to disagree until NHC tells us different.

[CrazyC83]

with 42kts on the SMFR...it's a tropical storm when we get a LLC...GFDL might be right..a fast developing, powerful system that will turn more N

Yep, if a LLC is found it is either Cristobal (if TD3 does not support TS strength) or Dolly (if TD3 supports an upgrade). If not it is a TS-strength wave.

[Cape Verde]

The GFDL model was enough to get my attention and encourage me to come back to this forum for information.

152 pages is going to be a bit to wade through, but if there's even a remote chance that I'll be in the midst of a major hurricane by mid to late week, knowing about it earlier is preferable. This forum has a consensus wisdom that has served us well in the past.

[americanrebel]

The GFDL model was enough to get my attention and encourage me to come back to this forum for information.

152 pages is going to be a bit to wade through, but if there's even a remote chance that I'll be in the midst of a major hurricane by mid to late week, knowing about it earlier is preferable. This forum has a consensus wisdom that has served us well in the past.

There really is no consensus on this one, everyone is confused by this one. The Models are even confused by this one.

[wxman57]

The GFDL model was enough to get my attention and encourage me to come back to this forum for information.

152 pages is going to be a bit to wade through, but if there's even a remote chance that I'll be in the midst of a major hurricane by mid to late week, knowing about it earlier is preferable. This forum has a consensus wisdom that has served us well in the past.

I'm right here in Houston, too, but the GFDL forecast doesn't concern me. It's done quite poorly with the disturbance so far, no reason to believe it finally has a clue. It may do better once there's a real vortex for it to initialize. For now, I just see a wave axis along 79W moving rapidly westward.

[Cryomaniac]

152 pages is going to be a bit to wade through.

I think someone said earlier that it took 4 hours to read the whole thing.

[HarlequinBoy]

The GFDL model was enough to get my attention and encourage me to come back to this forum for information.

152 pages is going to be a bit to wade through, but if there's even a remote chance that I'll be in the midst of a major hurricane by mid to late week, knowing about it earlier is preferable. This forum has a consensus wisdom that has served us well in the past.

Everyone seems to be confused by this one.

[americanrebel]

What is the record for pages for an investment that never form into anything?

[Praxus]

Hmm so the GFDL now has this hitting houston as a cat 5 eh...yeah ok. This thing has toyed with us already a few days; I don't think I'm going take it too seriously unless it becomes a TD at least. If it ever does.

[Smurfwicked]

Hmm so the GFDL now has this hitting houston as a cat 5 eh...yeah ok. This thing has toyed with us already a few days; I don't think I'm going take it too seriously unless it becomes a TD at least. If it ever does.

I think the latest GFDL model has it as Cat 2 and hitting more closer to the sabine river now. However recon just got winds of TS strenght if they find a center it should be upgraded, somebody please correct me if I am wrong.

[Cryomaniac]

However recon just got winds of TS strenght if they find a center it should be upgraded, somebody please correct me if I am wrong.

I think it would be upgraded if they get a centre, which is unlikely.

[cycloneye]