Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just enough disagreement between 12Z GFS ensemble 500 mb heights that making an accurate prediction beyond a few days would seem difficult...

[ROCK]

0z GFS rolling in...seems to intialize 92L in the wrong place...looks odd.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

[canetracker]

Initalization seems to have double vision. Whats up with that?

[ROCK]

It seems to have double vision. Whats up with that?

yeah, corrects itself around 18hr somewhat...maybe feedback issues? I dont know....

[canetracker]

At 48 hrs. does not appear to be surviving shear very well.

[RL3AO]

Whats that off the east coast?

[canetracker]

Whats that off the east coast?

Looks to be coming off coast per loop:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml

[canetracker]

72 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif
72 hr @ 85o mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_072l.gif

84 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_084l.gif
84 hr 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

[boca]

92L seems to hardly move between 48 hrs and 84 hrs. Something doesn't seem right about this on this run.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_102l.gif
hard to see at this level
here is 850mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_102l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

92L seems to hardly move between 48 hrs and 84 hrs. Something doesn't seem right about this on this run.

Sure it moves. Take a look..

48 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

84 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

The center of the "spin" looks to go from about 58-59W to 65-66W in that timeframe. That is 6 to 8 degrees in 36 hours.

[canetracker]

114 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_114l.gif
850 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_114l.gif

126hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_126l.gif
850 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_126l.gif

[boca]

92L seems to hardly move between 48 hrs and 84 hrs. Something doesn't seem right about this on this run.

Sure it moves. Take a look..

48 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

84 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

The center of the "spin" looks to go from about 58-59W to 65-66W in that timeframe. That is 6 to 8 degrees in 36 hours.

I think I'm just tired and waiting for this run to finish up.

[canetracker]

138 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_138l.gif
150 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_150l.gif
156hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

GFS again does not develop this and barely odes anything with the one behind

think I'll enjoy a few more quiet days before the activity begins to increase near the end of the month

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_168l.gif
at 168 hr cant even find it anymore

IMO, this run was more southerly once it took that westward turn.

Loop thru 240 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[AtlanticWind]

GFS again does not develop this and barely odes anything with the one behind

think I'll enjoy a few more quiet days before the activity begins to increase near the end of the month

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.

1st discussion on Wilma , GFs didnt pick up it up right away , Not comparing this situation to wilma but pointing out not to put everything on 1 model.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ya know, I know in Meteorology when you start talking about your gut feeling... Well, I knows it's not a factual thing that can be verified, but I really hope that 200mb Forecast doesn't come through from the GFS. 92L will have a fairly easy time with upper level winds, the whole way to the Bahamas. Barring it doesn't run into the islands for a few days. But, we all saw what happened with Jeanne when she battled with Haiti, she swung back around and came for another swing.

Anyway I think I've started to yammer on and on. So... This is definitely one to watch.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z Euro brings this into the gulf, strengthens it and moves it into Florida.

Loop:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081200!!!step/

[SouthFloridawx]

PLOTS


00Z

CMC

UKMET

NGP

GFDL


Even though these models are not showing intense systems, except for the CMC... they are still showing some kind of organized tropical system in a very warm region, nearing peak hurricane season.