ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Aric, is that green backward C above the orange yellow convection the center?

no.. we have no real well defined center ..
what that is is a midlevel circualtion

Can't be that well defined otherwise we'd have a TD/TS right now, instead recon found an open trough at low levels, still far more developed then anything in the MLC mind you and still probably the main region at lower levels.

[RL3AO]

remember, the GFDL had this over Hispaniola for a good while

Haven't there been many cases where a circulation hits Hispaniola and then dives SW?

[Aric Dunn]

Huge burst over the possible LLC that recon found.

Where is the possible LLC that the recon found? May you illustrated it or give coordinates?

Thanks!

go here http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[
Yes the LLC would likely form farther west near the "wind shift", this system only has about 12-18 more hours.[/quote]
then your on here why?[/quote]


?[/quote]
you said you dont care? and that its over in 12- 18 hrs..

if you dont care why you here

not being rude just asking?[/quote]

I was not talking about that. I said I do not care if this forms or if it became a hurricane. How much clearer do I have to make it? It is not that I went to see people get hurt, but I do enjoy staying up all night and watching them. (Hell I like many a weather system) If that was not allowed any more by some law of god, then I would likely call that hell.

I say this has a chance of developing where the new burst is forming maybe tonight into a tropical storm. You can see a clear wind shift near where the new blow up is forming. I don't believe it has a lot of time to develop.

[KWT]

Recon found a possible center around 64W, so would probably be around 64.3-5W now I'd guess, ahead of that convection anyway.

[Aric Dunn]

[
Yes the LLC would likely form farther west near the "wind shift", this system only has about 12-18 more hours.

then your on here why?[/quote]


?[/quote]
you said you dont care? and that its over in 12- 18 hrs..

if you dont care why you here

not being rude just asking?[/quote]

I was not talking about that. I said I do not care if this forms or if it became a hurricane. How much clearer do I have to make it? It is not that I went to see people get hurt, but I do enjoy staying up all night and watching them. (Hell I like many a weather system) If that was not allowed any more by some law of god, then I would likely call that hell.

I say this has a chance of developing where the new burst is forming maybe tonight into a tropical storm. You can see a clear wind shift near where the new blow up is forming. I don't believe it has a lot of time to develop.[/quote]

ok cool .. just a misunderstanding.. no harm to fal

[Aric Dunn]

Recon found a possible center around 64W, so would probably be around 64.3-5W now I'd guess, ahead of that convection anyway.

64 west is right dead center on radar that is where is really starting to come together . sat is a little deceiving..

[HURAKAN]

It's impressive the fact that this is not a tropical cyclone. WOW.

[Just Joshing You]

They should just use the motto.. 'If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it generally is a duck'

[Fego]

This loop is more up dated. Convection in crecendo..
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[KWT]

Its certainly interesting though I'm convinced circulation is a little to the west of the convection looking at the loops...but its closer to the circulation thats true.

I think this may hit DR as a messy poorly stacked wave still, may need to wait for this to get int othe Bahamas region before it gets its act really on unless it can somehow avoid the major islands to the north.

[jabber]

If its going to survive

[webke]

Check out the Northern side of the storm, does the additional outflow indicate additional organization.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[artist]

They should just use the motto.. 'If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it generally is a duck'

can't the radar be deceptive at a distance?

[Aric Dunn]

They should just use the motto.. 'If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it generally is a duck'

can't the radar be deceptive at a distance?

of course you just have to know what your looking for and at..

[HURAKAN]

They should just use the motto.. 'If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it generally is a duck'

Or

'If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it may be a duck but not necessarily'

[KWT]

Yep radar probably isn't as good as a tool as the Vis/imagery IMO unless the system is fairly close to the radar site though it can give a good indication as well I suppose.

Some deep convecvtion blooming now just on the northern side of nthat new convective blow-up, its much closer to the circulation, maybe close enough that the old LLC can tuck under it to some degree before slamming into PR.

[sunnyday]

I have no basis for saying that I've felt all along that this will not become even a tropical storm, but I still stand by that hunch.

[jabber]

Check out the Northern side of the storm, does the additional outflow indicate additional organization.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Normally I think it does... I wonder if the angle of the sun had anything to do with the visual.

[HURAKAN]