Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[ROCK]

well she is still moving west along the LA coast......interesting run..


edit...trof picking her up.....MS/AL landfall likely...at 150hr

She never makes anywhere along the LA. coast in that run. As a matter of fact I have
yet to see a GFS run that takes that far west. Hey maybe a missed a run so my apologies if I'm wrong.
Either way if this pans out it will have a lot of folks stressed out along the northern GOM.

thats why I edited......

[Frank P]

If she emerges into the gulf again I think we should all join hands for a chorus of Elton Johns "the B**ch is Back"


MOVING IN OVER MS AL BORDER AT 150 hrs...DOUBT IT...I have to admit this run is a little crazy, if not consistent. I dont think I have ever seen a storm sit in the NGOM that long.

Elena floated around for a good while in the northern GOM in 1980's I believe.
But that was in November and the steering currents were much weaker.

I Elena was Labor Day weekend 1985, we evacuate the coast as she approached from the south, she took a hard right turn, we celebrated as it went off to the E towards FL, sat stationary for a day or two off the west coast of FL, then started back towards MS and we evacuated again...

[SunnyThoughts]

I can't wrap my mind around the fact we may be tracking this thing for another ENTIRE week. What a storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

What is up with these female storms?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Steve "down on the bayou" , you around tonight? Is this the type of model run you were hinting at earlier today. Would love to hear your thoughts on this.

[Steve]

>>This might be what "Steve from down the Bayou" was talking about earlier today. If he is arond I would like to hear his comments. Anyway he mentioned another high dropping out of canada and possibly merging with this high or at least reinforcing it to put a block on Fay again. Our met even mentioned something about it this evening but I was only half paying attention. So obviously there is some kind of concensus coming together about that. Will have to wait awhile it looks like though. Probably by tomorrow the models will move north again until they get a good handle on things.

That was something the UKMET kind of tripped off early last week. I thought, obviously incorrectly, that Fay would come up toward SE FL/Bahamas and eventually get caught in the SW Atlantic and head toward, most likely, South Carolina. There was a trap/block coming down out of Canada via a high pressure system through the eastern Great Lakes and then into the Atlantic. This was why I was pretty sure that even if Fay didn't get farther west in the initial threat (which obviously it did), at some point there would be blowback and retrograde - or - Fay would sit out over the Atlantic waiting for another trough to pick it up. It was going to be a timing issue if not a track issue. So what happened after that - on some of the models, another Canadian high comes down to help usher in the heat of summer and build the Bermuda High much farther westward, or alternatively, provide another block north of Fay so that she would again either stall, get trapped or retrograde. Now we knew that Masters had already started talking about a major pattern shift. And we saw in 2005, among other years, that when the Bermuda Ridge reaches summer high-tide - regardless of how long it lasts - the threat to the US would generally be greater unless it's some insane ridge running the Mississippi River all the way to Europe - then maybe your threat is farther south (say Central America, Yucatan, Coastal Mexico).

There are two major pieces to the puzzle of a 2nd block/retrograde and they are: a) how strong does the Bermuda High get - and by the looks of the 500mb GFS, absolutely bananas, and b) would a reinforcing surface high pressure come down from Canada, but adjusted for the pattern, a little farther west and possibly stronger then the one following the trough that just missed (which was over the NC Gulf most of the week and through Florida yesterday and today).

I haven't looked at any evening models to see how any of them are handling that feature or if it even still shows up. If it does, there is the mechanism for at least some of the energy to remain in the SE for longer than it even would if it only gets caught once. Kinda sucks I can't get some of the models that I'd want to look at yet, but I'll go see what I can find and see if there is any corroboration to the possibility. You really never know. When the UKMET picked up Ivan and the possibility that the energy could split with a blowback/building high that could literally loop him all the way back to the Gulf (which it did all the way to Texas if I remember correctly), Bastardi threw that out there and got accused of mongering. I had seen that possibility in the UKMET but it's the kind of thing that you ordinarilly are going to laugh at and disregard as an insane solution.

Who knows? & sorry for rambling.

Steve

[Storm Contractor]

I just got a vision in my head of the staff at the NHC seeing this run and putting the faces in their hands and screaming AAAHHHHHHHH! I know it is just the synoptic setup, but it has to be stressful to see data that just doesn't agree with typical storm behavior. I am tired of Fay and I get more benefit from storm landfalls as more than most!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Steve. Sorry could not remember exactly what you had said. Anyway you think there is the possibility of the cone of death and other models get shifted more to the south and west tomorrow after seeing this run? I am really beginning to believe she gets back in the gulf but just don't know for how long and when. BTW have you been doing any fishing down there lately. If so any good. Trying to decide if I want to go down to your area or Hopedale. Got a new boat in July and dying to take it out on its first trip hadn't had a chance yet due to work.

[Steve]

>>Thanks Steve. Sorry could not remember exactly what you had said. Anyway you think there is the possibility of the cone of death and other models get shifted more to the south and west tomorrow after seeing this run? I am really beginning to believe she gets back in the gulf but just don't know for how long and when. BTW have you been doing any fishing down there lately. If so any good. Trying to decide if I want to go down to your area or Hopedale. Got a new boat in July and dying to take it out on its first trip hadn't had a chance yet due to work.

I don't know. 00z GFS sees that subsequent high, 00z CMC does not. That's all I have access to right now - unfortunately. Fishing has been hot and cold inside (haven't been offshore since last summer). There have been a lot of specs, redfish and black drum in Golden Meadow and Leeville - was in Chicago for the Grand Isle Fishing Rodeo so I didn't get any first hand reports down that way. I'm guessing with all the rain, there won't be any tuna near the coast because the blue water will be way further south. FWIW, Brother in law went out in the marsh the weekend before this one and caught a few specks which was the last report I got.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

00z UKMET

[stormy1970al]

If she emerges into the gulf again I think we should all join hands for a chorus of Elton Johns "the B**ch is Back"


MOVING IN OVER MS AL BORDER AT 150 hrs...DOUBT IT...I have to admit this run is a little crazy, if not consistent. I dont think I have ever seen a storm sit in the NGOM that long.

Elena floated around for a good while in the northern GOM in 1980's I believe.
But that was in November and the steering currents were much weaker.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/cohab/hurri ... /elena.htm
It was Sept 2, 1985 to be exact. I remember the storm well. I was in high school, living along the Gulf Coast. Just got out of the hospital after having my jaw broke and reset. Not a fun thing! Anyway I remember this storm not being able to make up her mind at all!

[Cyclenall]

Somehow, the 00Z GFDL run for Fay starts Fay out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and then takes it from there!!

[cheezyWXguy]

Somehow, the 00Z GFDL run for Fay starts Fay out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and then takes it from there!!

thats 94L

[Wx_Warrior]

Its been a long couple of days...Thank heavens for family guy reruns and the olympics.

[Ivanhater]

Word is, the 00Z Euro brings fay pretty far south in the gulf before lifting back up into the panhandle..awaiting the output..

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm a EURO hugger but I haven't been as impressed with E with Fayer...But then again, who has?

[Cyclenall]

Somehow, the 00Z GFDL run for Fay starts Fay out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and then takes it from there!!

thats 94L

No, check it out for yourself. It shows on the broader grid Fay out in the middle of the Atlantic while the fine grid shows it where it should be. The strength starts out at 55 knots.

[Meso]

[Wx_Warrior]

Just saw the run...Doesn't go too far south but then heads North...yikers.

BTW...Hello 94L!!!!

[Ivanhater]

Major Hurricane