Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[ROCK]

That's if this even turns back into the Gulf, and that's still a big IF.

big IF? how many models need to latch on before you concede?

[Stormcenter]

That's if this even turns back into the Gulf, and that's still a big IF.

Exactly...I'm glad someone posted that.

[Wx_Warrior]

Look at Fay roll, quickly I may add.

[canetracker]

Still tracking west? @ 96 hr!!!

[Ivanhater]

96..shes moving further west in this run..trough not as strong

[ROCK]

Still tracking west? @ 96 hr!!!

this might be a little farther west as the trof looks to lift out and she doesnt feel it.....

[canetracker]

I agree Ivanhater but it is still a westerly trend that I do not want to see.

[ROCK]

LOL Ivan.......beat me to it....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

While I will agree on the location the timing looks off. NHC has it around the big bend in 48 hrs. Just can't see Fay moving that slow if the ridge is as strong as some seem to think it will be. And if the ridge moves more south that would seem to push her even quicker to the west, right?

[Frank P]

impressive high pressure driving it too

[Ivanhater]

yeah Rock and Cane...shes touring the coast in this run

[canetracker]

While I will agree on the location the timing looks off. NHC has it around the big bend in 48 hrs. Just can't see Fay moving that slow if the ridge is as strong as some seem to think it will be. And if the ridge moves more south that would seem to push her even quicker to the west, right?

Well storms do move faster around ridges as they provide excellent steering currents.

[PTPatrick]

Possible NOLA hit on the 0 z....near the mouth of MS at 114...

[Wx_Warrior]

114

edited for double post

[Ivanhater]

Oh no!

[ROCK]

a lot farther west than I would have thought....missing the trof will be the key in this run......still going west along the LA coast....


edit....that ridge is insanely large....

[canetracker]

Sleep deprived as I am, I am not liking this run. I just woke up! : )

[Frank P]

Possible NOLA hit on the 0 z....near the mouth of MS at 114...

that'll have the NOLA WWL crew all excited in the morning.. they were all fired up this am.. early morning weather gal thought Fay had a good shot at getting back in the GOM..

[Jason_B]

That's if this even turns back into the Gulf, and that's still a big IF.

big IF? how many models need to latch on before you concede?

A re-emergence into the GOM is still not the consensus, so yeah it's still an if. I'm not saying it won't happen, but right now it's not a very likely scenario.

[Stormcenter]

If and that is still a big if Fay makes it back into the GOM she will not make it as far west as the Florida panhandle before hooking back NE. IMO