Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[haml8]

So, if the NAM @84 has it there, what are the odds that this things could meander into SE TX? Would that ULL in N. Texas/OK interact with it?

[LaBreeze]

I am not a professional met by any means, but just a gut feeling that Fay is not going to make it as far as LA or SE TX. I just don't see this happening.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't know about that LABreeze. Our met over here said even if she follows the forecast track the remnants will affect our weather early next week and he pointed to the ms/la border around the natchez area for whats left of the center. He seems more concerned about her getting in the gulf and coming west though.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_018l.gif
GFS @ 18 hr

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif
GFS @ 30 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_042l.gif
and at 42 hr

[LaBreeze]

Cyclone Mike, do you think that there is a slight chance that she would make it past the central LA coast at all? Gut feeling only is telling me no - but you never know. Maybe in SE LA you could get some rain out of Fay, but I'm thinking we're going to stay on the dry side of Fay here in Vermilion Parish and westward. Of course, like I said, I'm no professional met.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054l.gif
GFS @ 54 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_054l.gif
500 mb view

[jaxfladude]

00z NAM 84 hours

Wow!!!!

[capepoint]

things that make you say "hummm"

[ROCK]

now thats a decent ridge folks....

[PTPatrick]

0zGFS is a bit faster tonight....18 z had her off Melbourne at 60 hours whilst the 0z has her around just west of Orlando....also NAM and GFS is good aggrement so far...and NAM moved back to the gulf rather than its earlier trip over N FL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Labreeze niether am I, but the mets over here seem to think there is a decent shot. He really thinks the high is going to build in a little faster and also be stronger than what the models show from 48 hrs and out.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif
GFS @ 72 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_072l.gif
500 mb level

[Ivanhater]

Getting stronger

[PTPatrick]

Well...if you think about it...most of these models tend to UNDER build highs and recurve a little too quickly this time of the year. So I ceraintly think even if models cluster across the big bend and North FL, this could still be MObile or even Biloxi's game. Euro earlier actually had a MS landfall so REALLY, anything can happen...NC to NOLA is the cone...wow.


AND PS...I agree with some earlier posters, that if it skirts that close to the coast some dry air will almost certainly work it. At this I think that is what happened with Elena, and these couple models seem to be calling for a an Elena esq run of the coast from Apalach to around Mobile. I rememeber mom telling me Pascagoula had very little damage north of HWy 90 with Elena and Rain was minimal.

[Wx_Warrior]

One for the ages

[Jason_B]

That's if this even turns back into the Gulf, and that's still a big IF.

[PTPatrick]

84 hour NAM and GFS ALMOST identical...both about 50 mils southish of Apalachicola

[paintplaye]

That's if this even turns back into the Gulf, and that's still a big IF.

Not really I mean in my honest opinion its a 50/50 chance that it does.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_084l.gif
GFS @ 84 hr