Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cycloneye]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

These tracks are starting to concern me. Is a strong ridge supposed to
be PERSISTENTLY over 92L during the 3-7 day time frame?

I thought the Bahamas trough might recurve this and protect Florida,
I don't know about the Carolinas or Bermuda though???

[artist]

I had heard it could be a weakening ridge. Timing is going to be everything if this does indeed develop.

[SouthFloridawx]

What is also bothering me a little about this track is the ULH that GFS has been forecasting to develop to the north of the islands and track eastward towards Florida around the same time.

[Jason_B]

If XTRP is right about it moving NNW currently, then the models are way too far south.

[Blown Away]

I had heard it could be a weakening ridge. Timing is going to be everything if this does indeed develop.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

.FRI-SUN (EXTENDED)...FROM PREVIOUS MORNING AFD...PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE FORM OVER THE EAST COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AND SETTLE BACK OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL GENERATE DEEPER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
CWA. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE GREAT ENOUGH HOWEVER TO KEEP LOW END
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST.

The ridge will be strengthening this weekend.

[RL3AO]

If XTRP is right about it moving NNW currently, then the models are way too far south.

If the center reformed today, that explains the NW movement.

[artist]

actually the gfdl does show an almost due north jump for a short period which the others do not.

[cycloneye]

If XTRP is right about it moving NNW currently, then the models are way too far south.

The center reforming more north caused the movement to be almost due north,but overall,its moving wnw.

[vacanechaser]

What is also bothering me a little about this track is the ULH that GFS has been forecasting to develop to the north of the islands and track eastward towards Florida around the same time.

also looks like a nice 50kt outflow jet to its northeast...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ronjon]

I had heard it could be a weakening ridge. Timing is going to be everything if this does indeed develop.

If the global models are to be believed, the 500 mb ridge will only get stronger after 5 days. There is little chance that this system will recurve given the strong ridging forecast by the models. The question at this point will be how strong the ridging gets - enough to bend 92L almost due west (south of FL) or does 92L move W-NW into S FL. The upper level pattern (200 mb) seems to indicate from the GFS a small anticyclone moving in tandem with 92L in the Bahamas. We've seen storms undergo RI in this location, especially combined with potent ridging to the north at the mid-levels.

[blp]

HPC 7 Day has a quite a strong Ridge with 92L over Cuba. It looks like the trough is staying put over midwest.

[artist]

I had heard it could be a weakening ridge. Timing is going to be everything if this does indeed develop.

If the global models are to be believed, the 500 mb ridge will only get stronger after 5 days. There is little chance that this system will recurve given the strong ridging forecast by the models. The question at this point will be how strong the ridging gets - enough to bend 92L almost due west (south of FL) or does 92L move W-NW into S FL. The upper level pattern (200 mb) seems to indicate from the GFS a small anticyclone moving in tandem with 92L in the Bahamas. We've seen storms undergo RI in this location, especially combined with potent ridging to the north at the mid-levels.

This is my concern having gone through both Francis and Jeanne.

[Jason_B]

The center reforming more north caused the movement to be almost due north,but overall,its moving wnw.

If the center reformed today, that explains the NW movement.

Ok that explains it, thanks.

[MWatkins]

The center reforming more north caused the movement to be almost due north,but overall,its moving wnw.

If the center reformed today, that explains the NW movement.

Ok that explains it, thanks.

Just in case (you may already know this, so many new names)

Also, remember XTRP is simply an extrapolation (extension) of the current movement and speed. If the system continues in the same direction and speed for the next 126 hours, that is where it would end up.

It's really just a reference point for forecasters. It should not be taken seriously.

MW

[boca]

Models are predicting the ridge to pump up, but my question is the trough is just off the east coast stretching across the bahamas and across Florida doesn't seem to be lifting out in a hurry.When is the high expected to flex its muscle?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for the ridge explanation. A strong ridge means the islands
of the caribbean and then Florida, Cuba, Bahamas must watch closely

[jhamps10]

here's a look at the nam at 36, already showing good development of 92L:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif

500mb: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036m.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

What is also bothering me a little about this track is the ULH that GFS has been forecasting to develop to the north of the islands and track eastward towards Florida around the same time.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_200_126l.gif

also looks like a nice 50kt outflow jet to its northeast...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yeah.. will have to keep an eye on that.

[Derek Ortt]

does not appear to be organizing any further this evening. The convection is racing ahead of the area of greatest vorticity

also, this may not be in recon range tomorrow. I do not foresee this reaching 55W by 18Z