ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[Sanibel]

If the center is further down by that Quickscat center we are talking a much different track.

[gatorcane]

I believe there is low center trying to form on the 17N lattitude (southern edge of the convection). Does anybody else agree with that assessment?

[xironman]

Check this out http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-41&zoom=1&info=vis&type=Animation&numframes=7&quality=90 you can see the broad low level spin down there.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This thing is so visually there structure wise as far as waves go I can't see it Just poofing...It hast to Dev down the road right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the center is further down by that Quickscat center we are talking a much different track.

Yeah, the quikscat was showing a closed low down near 12-13N. That would indeed lead to a totally different track if it was found to be accurate.

[gatorcane]

Actually I do see why quickstat is picking up the low around 12N-13N. Check out the loop here and you can see the spin there but shear is blowing off the convection well to the north. Just fair weather cumulus are present around the 12N spin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[GCANE]

Circulation is very broad on MIMIC-TPW

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[rockyman]

The "center" of the broad cyclonic circulation seems to be around 14.5/45...with the heavy convection removed to the NE...as long as the system stays shallow (weak), it should race off to the west for the next 24 hours...the steering flow is pretty strong in this area of the Atlantic:

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Convection continues to fire -- will certainly be mentioned on the 2PM EST TWO. Given we are almost in August, it certainly bears watching as it moves West.

I just checked the GFS and it amazingly rapidly curves 97L out to sea in the next 48-96 hours despite some strong heights across the North Central Atlantic. Not sure if I believe rapid recurvature given the shallowness of 97L. I'm leaning more toward a W to WNW movement and gradual bending to the north over the next 5-7 days and eventually a NW movement -- could take a similar path to Bertha.



This WV loop shows the heights building in across the northern Atlantic. See top of loop and you can see the downward push in the Water Vapor....should keep 97L on a West path for the next 3-5 days. Beyond that I don't see enough ridging to keep it going west past about 60W but things can change.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, I see theres some confusion about why it moved so far north in such a short period of time. Personally I dont think it did at all. Looking at the gfs, there were several areas of vorticity associated with 97L, aligned north-south. It looks to still be moving west, just pick your center and follow it.

[Smurfwicked]

I am seeing what looks to me as circulation and westward movement at the very most SW side of all the convection, is this what everybody else is agreeing on or am I lost?

BTW the loop I was looking at wunderground seemed to only have a few frames in its loop, so if I am mistaken that might be why.

[GCANE]

I think the deceiving part of this is that circulation goes all the way from the surface to about 500mb. The 500mb circulation is centered at about 18N 41W while the surface is what QSCAT is showing at 12N 41W.

[boca]

Which circulation will win the one at 12n or 18n? I thinking the 18n will win due to the present convection occurring.

[Cyclone1]

So it's 6 degrees offset? That's incredibly disorganized...

[HURAKAN]

Maybe we're looking it as one system and because the wave is so large, the northern part could be producing the t-storms while the southern part has a circulation, meaning, two systems. Not that both will develop, but it's something to think about. The wave could break into two.

[Blown Away]

I believe there is low center trying to form on the 17N lattitude (southern edge of the convection). Does anybody else agree with that assessment?

I agree, in the area of 16.5-17N/ 42-43W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

Off Topic: For those who dont see the ex 97L thread,well its not ex97L anymore as a best track text was released meaning 97L is alive again.Go to active storms forum for the information about it and if you have comments.

How is 97L not mentioned in the NHC Outlook if it is active again?

[gatorcane]

Off Topic: For those who dont see the ex 97L thread,well its not ex97L anymore as a best track text was released meaning 97L is alive again.Go to active storms forum for the information about it and if you have comments.

How is 97L not mentioned in the NHC Outlook if it is active again?

should be mentioned again in the 2pm ESTTWO

[GeneratorPower]

Unfortunately it just seems the TWO is not as scientific as it once was. They pulled the trigger too early last week and I expect they are being a bit more conservative.

[cycloneye]

Maybe we're looking it as one system and because the wave is so large, the northern part could be producing the t-storms while the southern part has a circulation, meaning, two systems. Not that both will develop, but it's something to think about. The wave could break into two.

One goes west and the other NW but is early to say if that will occur.This has been a very large system since it was in Ethiopia in Africa as some called it a monster wave at that time.