Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Dean4Storms]

Dean what do you think the chances of Fay actually getting turned wsw moving in the gulf? That high looks pretty strong and she looks to be slowing down a good bit as of late. Also as Steve posted esarlier today there is another high progged to move down from canada towards early next week it looks and reinforce the block. This is just getting crazy.

With her in a weakened state I could see a WSW movement initially as she reacts to the ridges influence, happens all the time in these kinds of situations. Rarely do they move in a true 270.

[KWT]

weakened?
Its stronger then it was when it made landfall and its a lot stronger then the GFS run show, high resolution models obviously have a far better indication of the strength of the TC...though to be honest it won't make a huge deal to be honest given the synoptic set-up.

[deltadog03]

If, I remembered correctly the hurricane models...HWRF and GFDL had this getting off the coast around 6z tom. am.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe a look at Infrared shows her weakening as the cloud tops are warming significantly. By the time she gets stalled she will likely have weakened IMO especially so if it occurs over land and that is when I'm talking about, not right this moment.

[KWT]

Looking pretty close to what will happen Deltadog given foward speed presently, no reason to doubt those models at the moment but we shall see.

In terms of strength the best thing for Fay to get stronger will be to stay in the Atlantic and get as far east as possible, a westerly track into the gulf will only allow quick strengthening if it can get a good 50 miles from the shore because mid level dry air would likely slow strengthening.

[DESTRUCTION5]

New GDFL (18z) says East drift is Legit

Landfall Savannah..

[deltadog03]

Caan you post that run?

[KWT]

Do you have a link to the new GFDL?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Accwx pro site..Exit PSL Enter Savannah in a slow fasion..

[Pearl River]

123

WHXX04 KWBC 192329

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L



INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 19



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 27.0 81.1 25./ 7.0

6 27.5 80.6 47./ 7.2

12 28.3 80.3 18./ 8.6

18 28.7 80.3 0./ 3.8

24 28.9 79.9 60./ 4.3

30 29.5 79.7 21./ 5.6

36 29.8 79.8 349./ 3.2

42 30.1 80.0 315./ 3.8

48 30.3 80.3 315./ 3.0

54 30.5 80.6 301./ 3.1

60 30.8 81.0 307./ 4.9

66 31.3 81.6 311./ 6.7

72 31.8 82.3 302./ 8.2

78 32.1 83.2 294./ 7.9

84 32.5 83.8 296./ 6.6

90 33.1 84.5 313./ 8.0

96 33.6 84.9 318./ 6.1

102 34.2 85.4 323./ 6.9

108 34.6 85.8 321./ 5.9

114 35.3 85.5 17./ 7.2

120 35.9 85.1 39./ 6.7

126 36.3 84.4 57./ 6.5

[Dean4Storms]

That would be an outlier from everything else we've seen from 18z runs.

[deltadog03]

Looks like it initialized VERY well.

[Wthrman13]

Yes, think about it this way...(IT is obviously possible that it goes back into the gom) but, GFS and NAM sit this in this very spot its in NOW, for another 24 hours...Do yall think that it is really going to do that?

One potential problem with the GFS is it initializes the pressure around 1002-1004mb, hard to tell exactly what it is but is way to high, so this could effect the output quite a bit, although I have no clue how it would affect it.

The GFS will *always* initialize the central pressure of a TC too high. It (and the other global models) simply lack the resolution required to handle the tight pressure gradient in the inner core. The key here is that TC tracks are more sensitive to how the large-scale flow interacts with the general circulation envelope of the TC, and not so much to how strong the system is, which is a secondary effect.

Also about the GFS ensembles, the probable reason the tracks are so "jerky" is because the ensemble members are run at lower resolution from the OP GFS, and likely there are issues locating the center of the TC in the lower-res fields.

[Ivanhater]

That would be an outlier from everything else we've seen from 18z runs.

well Dean, the GFDL seems to at least be falling in line, all be it slower..it was hanging on going to the northeast

[deltadog03]

Yes, think about it this way...(IT is obviously possible that it goes back into the gom) but, GFS and NAM sit this in this very spot its in NOW, for another 24 hours...Do yall think that it is really going to do that?

One potential problem with the GFS is it initializes the pressure around 1002-1004mb, hard to tell exactly what it is but is way to high, so this could effect the output quite a bit, although I have no clue how it would affect it.

The GFS will *always* initialize the central pressure of a TC too high. It (and the other global models) simply lack the resolution required to handle the tight pressure gradient in the inner core. The key here is that TC tracks are more sensitive to how the large-scale flow interacts with the general circulation envelope of the TC, and not so much to how strong the system is, which is a secondary effect.

Oh, I FULLY agree with that...I mean, speed wise...Sorry!

[KWT]

18z GFDL may be a slight outlier BUT its handling this system far better then the globals over Florida, heck if the 12z runs were to believed this should still be just west of Lake.O. No reason to not believe the GFDL, it may be a tiny bit too far north-east as its a little too quick in the first 18hrs but the overall idea looks good IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

That would be an outlier from everything else we've seen from 18z runs.

well Dean, the GFDL seems to at least be falling in line, all be it slower..it was hanging on going to the northeast

The 12z run brought Fay in around the FL/GA border, so it has shifted north again if it is bringing her in around Savannah, lets hope it is right and all the others are wrong.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF looks realistic.OUt Vero In Jax...Stil waiting on strength models Seem like all models stal near Mebourne now,,

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have a feeling the models aren't handling the high pressure building in well. Probably under-estimating the strength. I expect they will start to shift more to the west and south tomorrow once the trof is gone, which it is in the process of doing right now and get better feedback on the ridge. Just in my non-professional opinion.

[KWT]

Vero Beach is too far south unless it goes about ENE from now on, the GFDL looks pretty close IMO though I have'nt seen it progged on a map yet.

By the way the HWRF has this down into the 950's around landfall...