ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

hanna is currently moving right over that

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8244at.jpg

cool eddy ........

Because of clouds in the area...

did you and aric ride the same bus (he was making a joke lol) .........what do YOU think clouds in the area have to do with her moving east over a cooler eddy and her satelite appearence deteriorating

[GTStorm]

So, what is the potential threat to SFL at this point?

well all guidance is sketchy until it piked up by the sub-tropical ridge building in and it starts moving. So, SE Fl to OBX looks like a threat right now. Add in climo history and I'd say this is a bit more likely to end up in SC or NC in the end

I would imagine, starting with the 5:00 AM advisory tomorrow we'll see the gradual nudging to the right from one advisory to the next that usually happens when we have a set-up like this. I agree that this ends up around the NC / SC border. I just hope the "turn" becomes apparent sooner so they don't start closing stuff down.

[JtSmarts]

Our best Columbia local met Jim Gandy, was very concerned about Hanna. He said he had already alerted his family on the coast to be prepared to evacuate by Thursday morning.

[Sanibel]

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?

I'm clueless with the WV on steering. The 500 millibar map shows to me a High that should be taking Hanna west right now. Why it isn't is beyond my knowledge.

I wish there was a technology that could show dummies like me what exact steering influences are on a system in motion graphics.

[Grease Monkey]

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?

I'm clueless with the WV on steering. The 500 millibar map shows to me a High that should be taking Hanna west right now. Why it isn't is beyond my knowledge.

I wish there was a technology that could show dummies like me what exact steering influences are on a system in motion graphics.

If it moved further east, then when the second steering arrives which is supposed to create a NW movement, I would think she would just make the NW turn sooner.

[Emmett_Brown]

As a resident of NEFL, I have been very interested in the ridge. UKmet and Nogaps have a stronger ridge, hence push it closer to FL. Latest GFS, GFDL, HWRF etc are better for my area, although still a close call. My main concern now is that IMO a building ridge could cause the storm to bend a bit to the left of the current forecast track, similar to what Gustav did as he approached LA today.

Either way, GA, SC and NC look equally likely.

As for climatology, true that a NEFL or GA hit would be rare, but you just have to go back to Fay in '08 and TS Tammy in '05 to find one... not exactly unheard of.

[shortwave]

There is a fairly strong upper/mid high sitting right across *eastern gulf through florida at the moment. Hanna will not be heading west till it weakens or moves.

[Emmett_Brown]

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?

I'm clueless with the WV on steering. The 500 millibar map shows to me a High that should be taking Hanna west right now. Why it isn't is beyond my knowledge.

I wish there was a technology that could show dummies like me what exact steering influences are on a system in motion graphics.

If it moved further east, then when the second steering arrives which is supposed to create a NW movement, I would think she would just make the NW turn sooner.

I agree. The GFDL showed a clockwise loop followed by NW movement and deepening. The models amazingly have suggested this for a couple of days.

[Philly12]

How likely (or unlikely) is it that the GFS and subsequently the GFDL and HRWF are overdoing the weakness in the ridge and imparting too much of a northerly component in the track? Hasn't the GFS been guilty in the past of overdoing the weakness and having a rightward bias?

[invest man]

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?

I'm clueless with the WV on steering. The 500 millibar map shows to me a High that should be taking Hanna west right now. Why it isn't is beyond my knowledge.

I wish there was a technology that could show dummies like me what exact steering influences are on a system in motion graphics.

TC's don't make sense most of the time. Gus had everything going for it to really intensify in the warm loop of the GOM but got chocked off by dry air in the mid levels. Personally as I watch Gus's outflow it is moving from nw to se toward Hanna thus Hanna is moving slightly in that direction. Once Gus diminishes and moves further away I'd expect her to really mae her move on way or the other. IM

[BensonTCwatcher]

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?

I'm clueless with the WV on steering. The 500 millibar map shows to me a High that should be taking Hanna west right now. Why it isn't is beyond my knowledge.

I wish there was a technology that could show dummies like me what exact steering influences are on a system in motion graphics.

Does this help? http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

[Aric Dunn]

How likely (or unlikely) is it that the GFS and subsequently the GFDL and HRWF are overdoing the weakness in the ridge and imparting too much of a northerly component in the track? Hasn't the GFS been guilty in the past of overdoing the weakness and having a rightward bias?

very possible..

hence the cone of uncertainty

[tpr1967]

What i have been hearing is the ridge thats in the central atlantic is the ridge that will build in
and steer hanna nw. The ridge to the north over western nc is supposed to weaken over time,
because of the cutoff low over the western atlantic. The ridge out to the east is supposed to build west and steer hanna.

[gurutc]

I was here in Columbia, SC for Hugo. I know the models are going to change some from the tracks currently going right over our house. But Hugo, going a bit East of here, did plenty to make things not so fun here. No power for 2 weeks, etc.

The wife is making a list of dry goods she's buying tomorrow. And we've got the oil lanterns, candle lanterns, and the Coleman lantern lined up. We're right downhill from the water tower, so good there. Picking up a bigger DC-powered cooler to live plugged into the car lighter plug to keep our cereal milk cool. Getting both propane tanks refilled for the grill tomorrow. Heading to Goodwill to buy some more almost-new shirts and pants so I can go to work in clean clothes.

I think we're gonna be ready

[BensonTCwatcher]

While on the beach today at Ft Fisher wind shifted fron N/NE to East. Tells me the ridge is building in

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KILM.html

[stayawaynow]

Say Hanna goes into Savannah. It looks like due north from there over Columbia. Would Columbia and Charlotte in NC also get hurricane force winds? as a cat1 on landfall?

[AJC3]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

I had heard elsewhere that he invoked the names of Floyd and Hugo on his last O'Reilly spot, so in the interest of providing some perspective, here was JB's original call, where he also invoked some other famous storms...

"But make no mistake about it, this is history in the making. Hanna, as suspected, will not only be caught and not only does it go to Florida, but such storms as Andrew, Betsy, Katrina, come to mind that came back west from east of 70 and scored double hits." (ed. gulf coast 2nd hit, as you'll se in the track fcst)

Initial: 22 north 64 west 992 mb 70 mph
Sunday: 24 north 68 west 971 mb 95 mph
Monday: 26 north 71 west 961 mb 115 mph
Tuesday: 25 north 73 west 951 mb 120 mph
Wednesday: 24 north 74 west 946 mb 125 mph
Thursday: 23 north 77 west 936 mb 135 mph
Friday: 25 north 81 west 936 mb 135 mph
Saturday: 29 north 85 west 946 mb 120 mph
Sunday: 33 north 89 west 996 mb 45 mph (inland)

[cpdaman]

looks like a temporary brick wall to her west

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

JB and fox go well together

[gurutc]

Say Hanna goes into Savannah. It looks like due north from there over Columbia. Would Columbia and Charlotte in NC also get hurricane force winds? as a cat1 on landfall?

With the storm moving so quickly over land, hitting the coast as a Cat2, it looks like it'll be over Columbia quicker than it can weaken to a TS. The models seem to back that up with Cat 1 winds 96 hrs from now, when it may be here in Cola. We're digging in for a possible (hopefully not) blustery night here.

What sucks is I just started a new contract job, which I plan to leave early on Friday to go home to prep if needed. No work, no pay. But family comes first.

[Lowpressure]

Say Hanna goes into Savannah. It looks like due north from there over Columbia. Would Columbia and Charlotte in NC also get hurricane force winds? as a cat1 on landfall?

Not very likely at all, it would need to much stronger than that in most cases. Hugo went in at 135mph and the Charlotte area peaked at around 80-85mph. However, it was quit tornadic.