Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Brent]

[Cyclenall]

I can just picture it now:

"Watchers of Tropical Storm Fay thought they avoided the worst until days later when Fay strengthened to a major hurricane and hit South Carloina without ample warning"

This post is not an offical prediction or forecast. It is based off of the GFDL model and does not reflect reality.

[fasterdisaster]

That would be the first major hurricane to hit Georgia in a very long time. It's quite rare for synoptics to guide a system into Georgia, usually they hit Florida or curve around Puerto Rico to hit SC or NC. Tammy in 2005 did it but otherwise I really can't remember it happening.

[fasterdisaster]

yep theres your trof and Fl panhandle it is........Man lets see that would make for Key West, FL landfall, Naples, EC of FL and finally the panhandle......you guys will have the whole STATE in a state of emergency.......5 Fl landfalls!!! unreal.....

Retirement cred...? The World Meteorological Organization retirement policy if I hear about it right says that Names can be retired for being unusual even if they are not huge disasters(fay if that multiple Fla landfall track does verify, may still rack up damage totals when it is all said and done)...please help me about this point...

If it does this all as a tropical storm, then, unless it works out like Allison (which I can't completely rule out) then no. It has to have caused significant death or damage. Storms do not get retired solely for nonconformity.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO is out...Basically turns west while on land parrallel to GOM.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081900!!/

[Brent]

Even less agreement now...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, we really don't have any idea what is going to happen. This storm will go down in history as something to remember.

[fasterdisaster]

Even less agreement now...

wtf...

[jojo]

Looks like UKMet are onboard with the GFS who tend to be pretty good at picking up unusual changes like this. Seems hard to believe that Fay will just brake and go west into the GoM. I hope they're wrong.

[Thunder44]

Wow, we really don't have any idea what is going to happen. This storm will go down in history as something to remember.

I think we do have an idea, what's going to happen. Fay will continue moving to the north and east until she meets up with the ridge to the north. At that point she will turn left. What's uncertain is where that point will be and what direction she will be moving.

[Thunder44]

Even less agreement now...

I think we should disregard the BAMS and BAMM, as they aren't really made for deeper system like this. Also the CMC track is there is from the 12z run yesterday. I think a consesus track of the latest runs of the global models is best to with now. It would a little further west of the NHC track from the 11pm advisory .

[StJoe]

Even less agreement now...

I think we should disregard the BAMS and BAMM, as they aren't really made for deeper system like this. Also the CMC track is there is from the 12z run yesterday. I think a consesus track of the latest runs of the global models is best to with now. It would a little further west of the NHC track from the 11pm advisory .

GFDL takes it right thru my house...

[KWT]

Some seriously crazy runs by the models!

The thing to note is the UKMO/ECM/GFS all agree with the general synoptic evoltuion and timing and so we really should pay attention to that.

[deltadog03]

Once again its all going to come down to timing...The thing to watch for is how long its going to take to get off the mainland now. Gfdl and HWRF are quicker in doing so. Did notice that GFDL did a little better with landfall than the other models, but generally they were all fairly close. NHC has this over florida for almost 48 hours...I am not so sure it takes that long...We will see though. If, it does get into the ATL, I could easily see a CANE...

[KWT]

If it gets enough time before shunted westwards to some degree again Deltadog I agree. The further east of north it goes the less north it'll get and the more likely it will bend back west at a southern enough latitude to reasch the gulf again like the global models suggest.

[crownweather]

I found the 4 km SPC WRF-NMM model very interesting. Takes Fay offshore near Vero Beach by late this afternoon and has it tracking NNE about 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral tomorrow morning.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

[Meso]

06z GFS in 72 Hours



06z GFS in 96 Hours : In reverse mode again

[KWT]

Looks like it bends back WSW again just like previous runs, the GFS certainly has been adament that it will happen like that, will be interesting to see where it ends up in the gulf this run.

[caneman]

looks like you can throw out the GFDL. Take is too far South and East starting out.

[StJoe]

looks like you can throw out the GFDL. Take is too far South and East starting out.

Think you need to look at it again. Fay is actually closer to GFDL than all the others