ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[Brent]

Anyway, if HPC analyzing an occluded front settles the matter, why doesn't NHC just cancel the mission now. What point is there flying around on a system they won't upgrade?

I give up

[Category 5]

At this point it doesn't matter what the hell they call it, the effects will be the same.

[O Town]

Okay enough pictures of Jean-luc Picard.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 251801
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE AND HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL
FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GRAND TURK ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AROUND 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

[Frank2]

Okay enough pictures of Jean-luc Picard.

Oh - is that the QB in the picture - I thought it was Jim Cantore!

Kidding...

It does look more like an eye on the visible loop, but, as others said an occluded front is analyzed to be a part of the system, so, it's not a tropical cyclone, though it might be trying to acquire tropical characteristics..

Sorry, folks...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow....3 pages of debate..I think its clear we have a STS without a name here...Lets just hope its named for the sake of this thread...LOL

[wxman57]

Here's a crude surface analysis of the Mid Atlantic Coast. Looks like an occluded low. Should such lows be called tropical storms or subtropical storms - I would say no. I don't have to make those decisions, though. The NHC's primary role is to protect the general public. With a winter-type storm like this, they think the public are adequately served by posting gale warnings along the coast. Calling it "Kyle" at this point may only add to public confusion. It actually looked a lot more tropical 24 hours ago than it does now. At least there was strong convection over the center then.

Such low centers won't carry their winds inland like tropical systems, and there won't be an associated storm surge (just above-normal tides due to onshore flow). So maybe coastal gale warnings are all that's needed for this system.

[CrazyC83]

Here's a crude surface analysis of the Mid Atlantic Coast. Looks like an occluded low. Should such lows be called tropical storms or subtropical storms - I would say no. I don't have to make those decisions, though. The NHC's primary role is to protect the general public. With a winter-type storm like this, they think the public are adequately served by posting gale warnings along the coast. Calling it "Kyle" at this point may only add to public confusion. It actually looked a lot more tropical 24 hours ago than it does now. At least there was strong convection over the center then.

Such low centers won't carry their winds inland like tropical systems, and there won't be an associated storm surge (just above-normal tides due to onshore flow). So maybe coastal gale warnings are all that's needed for this system.

Looking at that picture, I have weird thoughts: there are two low centers. Center #1 is the triple-point over Albemarle Sound - clearly extratropical. However, the eye feature seems like Center #2, which may be subtropical or tropical. This looks similar to the 1991 unnamed storm. Too tough to tell and confusing to declare STS Laura though.

[Frank2]

Actually, the real storm is the controversy over whether 94L is a no-name cyclone!

Quack-quack...

Thanks for the surface ob map - that looks just like the one I used to plot at the NHC - by drafting pen and black India ink (back in the St. Joan of Arc days)...

LOL

[CrazyC83]

Actually, the real storm is the controversy over whether 94L is a no-name cyclone!

Quack-quack...

Thanks for the surface ob map - that looks just like the one I used to plot at the NHC - by pen and ink (back in the St. Joan of Arc days)...

LOL

LOL you are right. I think this is two storms in one - a large extratropical storm and a small subtropical storm at the same time.

However, initiating advisories as STS Laura (knowing 93L will be Kyle soon) would be confusing since the main impacts are in the extratropical part.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Here's a crude surface analysis of the Mid Atlantic Coast. Looks like an occluded low. Should such lows be called tropical storms or subtropical storms - I would say no. I don't have to make those decisions, though. The NHC's primary role is to protect the general public. With a winter-type storm like this, they think the public are adequately served by posting gale warnings along the coast. Calling it "Kyle" at this point may only add to public confusion. It actually looked a lot more tropical 24 hours ago than it does now. At least there was strong convection over the center then.

Such low centers won't carry their winds inland like tropical systems, and there won't be an associated storm surge (just above-normal tides due to onshore flow). So maybe coastal gale warnings are all that's needed for this system.

You remember Hurricane Charley of 1980? It started same bat place, same bat way. Your hand drawn occlusion seems West of the center, but I shan't quibble. If my third favorite S2K pro-met (who could easily move up by joining more 18Z 264 hour GFS Houston snow threads and sports forum threads) says he thinks it is frontal, that is good enough for me.

[Category 5]

Wind keeps picking up. 10-15mph gusting to 20mph. It was 5-10 this morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Soon to be Kyle has less temperature differential to the core than extratropical no-name 94L...

[HURAKAN]

[hurricanefloyd5]

Soon to be Kyle has less temperature differential to the core than extratropical no-name 94L...

where dose it say NO-NAME94L at?????

[hurricanefloyd5]

we Have Kyle now

[cycloneye]

we Have Kyle now

Wrong thread.

[hurricanefloyd5]

we Have Kyle now

Wrong thread.

oh ok I wasn't sure which invest but ty and can you move it to the right threat please cycloneye????????