ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

Thats if it survives of course Hurakan, the models all seem to big time weaken Joshephine with a very bad set-up for strengthening present after 72hrs according to the models but we shall see.

[wxman57]

Looks like the core collapsed now. Big outflow boundary racing out in the western semicircle. No way this is a 70 mph TS now. Maybe a 45 mph TS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 28.8W AT 03/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM...485 KM...W-SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 9 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH TO THE WEST...IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT JOSEPHINE. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND JOSEPHINE NOW LOOKS
LESS ORGANIZED THAN THIS MORNING.

[Tampa_God]

Josephine isn't looking healthy. Seems she will be seeing her last day by tomorrow or later tonight.

[tolakram]

Going to pause on creating maps for Jo until it's closer to the islands, depending on if it still exists or not.

[KWT]

The interesting thing is a weaker system will probably travel further west. For now it will remain weak, possibly even open up but the ECM for example does show a stronger josephine near 20N 60W around 240hrs after tracking very slowly...so this one still needs very close watching indeed even IF it does open up totally.

[fasterdisaster]

Yup KWT we aren't in the clear with Josephine though right now it's probably less than 50% chance going off NHC but still we need to keep an eye on her just in case she stays alive and in the Hebert box.

[Gustywind]

The interesting thing is a weaker system will probably travel further west. For now it will remain weak, possibly even open up but the ECM for example does show a stronger josephine near 20N 60W around 240hrs after tracking very slowly...so this one still needs very close watching indeed even IF it does open up totally.

KWT interressing for WHO? I don't like it its trends westwards, maybe you tend to forget that if this trend is confirmed more to west the Carib islands could be in trouble and dealing with a a TS poor or not, i prefer g system racing westnorthwest or northwest right compared to to a pimpy TS becaming vety suspicious, it's only the the beginning of September nothing is ended for the US but especially for us in the islands .
Wait and see but since this morning Josephine is moving poorly to the west, not a good sign big wobble or not we should monitor this women...

[HURAKAN]

Oh, Josephine. Times are hard for you my friend.

[WmE]

Wow what a mess. Weakening in a hurry for sure.

[Gustywind]

03/1745 UTC 13.7N 29.2W T2.5/3.0 JOSEPHINE
03/1130 UTC 13.6N 28.2W T3.0/3.0 JOSEPHINE
Racing west and weakning a bit....

[masaji79]

What's causing Josephine to weaken so rapidly?

[El Nino]

Time to look at the next wave behind it I think.

[Gustywind]

What's causing Josephine to weaken so rapidly?

Did you miss something? Do you want a nexpresso or a forecastexpresso ?


000
WTNT45 KNHC 032037
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE REALLY WORKED A NUMBER ON
JOSEPHINE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER LOOKING RATHER
IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
SINCE RAPIDLY DEGRADED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THERE IS NOW A
NOTICEABLE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES BUT
THIS COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS GIVEN JOSEPHINE'S CURRENT APPEARANCE.
IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE ENVIRONMENT GETS MORE
HOSTILE FROM HERE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
JOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME
MODELS EVEN SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY...SSTS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT WILL
BE LEFT OF JOSEPHINE BY THAT TIME.

[Gustywind]

Time to look at the next wave behind it I think.

Never says that, too early my friend, all the bets can be opened when you have at least a TD...

[El Nino]

Time to look at the next wave behind it I think.

Never says that, too early my friend, all the bets can be opened when you have at least a TD...

I know : remember TD10 aka Katrina. But, I'm not looking that much at Josephine. Not very interesting.

[Gustywind]

Time to look at the next wave behind it I think.

Never says that, too early my friend, all the bets can be opened when you have at least a TD...

I know : remember TD10 aka Katrina. But, I'm not looking that much at Josephine. Not very interesting.

Ok glad to see that, not very interresting for you i appreciate, but when you're from the East Carib surely you're always interresting by something from the east at your guards, definitely you look at all theses suspicious things and praying them to recurve quickly if God can make a nice issue for us, if not we should deal with it hoping nothing to bad . Whereas, be on your guard all the Josephine as always a plan, remember Josephine Baker you cannot be sure with wowen we have one thing to do all: TRACK JOSEPHINE poor or not for us... in the East Carib!!!

[KWT]

Quite a large convective burst has gone up over night with Josephine and whilst far from great the current set-up is good enough to probably sustain it, very similar to what we have seen with Hanna to some extent but with less shear.

Still could well end up being a long tracker...

[HURAKAN]

Again the eye-feature.

[El Nino]

Hmmm after 72h, NHC forecasts a slight intensification and no recurvature for the moment. It could bring some surprises.