ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

[Sihara]

with the strength of the ridge progged i see this as a potential monster that scares florida to death i.e remember floyd before he turned .........hopefully this one turns

Floyd gave us a real scare, even over here on the gulf side. There was a time when forecasters called for it to landfall near Cocoa and cut straight across. Shelters were filling over here and people were rattled. So I hope this one turns as well.

Meanwhile, our local NWS mentions it in their disc:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 011730
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

...LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF TC HANNA.
AT THE PRESENT TIME IT APPEARS THAT HANNA WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES NORTH OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TD#9 AS SOME OF THE MODELS
DEVELOP IT AND BRING IT TOWARD FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[Ivanhater]

The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one and follows the model consensus. Since the track
guidance continues to be rather tight...the forecast confidence
remains relatively high.



Hannah during the week...dealing with Ike by the end of the weekend and beyond!

[Ptarmigan]

Some models have Ike as a Category 4 hurricane.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

[masaji79]

Looks like we'll have a train of storms. Hanna, Ike and maybe soon Josephine.

[tolakram]

[ConvergenceZone]

Here is what Jeff Masters had to say on his blog just a little while ago before Ike formed

"OK, this is really getting nuts. We've got two more very impressive storms that came off the coast of Africa that look like they will become hurricanes. Ike (AKA Tropical Depression Nine) is looking very much like it will be a large and dangerous major Cape Verdes-type hurricane. The GFDL model makes Ike a Category 2 hurricane by Thursday, while the HWRF forecasts a Cat 4. Visible satellite loops show a large and very intimidating circulation, with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity and decent upper-level outflow beginning. Ike is expected to pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday, but will get forced west-southwest towards Hispaniola or the Bahamas late this week. I do not expect Ike to recurve out to sea. Ike's sister, Josephine (AKA 99L), looks like it will form just off the coast of Africa on Tuesday."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

[pablolopez26]

Whats the record number of storms to hit Conus in one particular season?

I mean we are barely in September!!!

Ike looks like he is going to make his way into the gulf as well!

[KWT]

Ptarmigan, I think the waters its going to enter are certainly warm enough to allow cat-4 system, we saw Georges track in a similar way to what Ike may do (though I think Ike will go to the north of where Geroges went through) and become a powerful cat-4, Hugo also went through the same sort of waters and went to cat-5, so IF upper conditions are favorable I think we could well see a very powerful major hurricane from this eventually. For the next 24-36hrs strengthening should only be steady but after that...bang I reckon!

[Epsilon_Fan]

following in the tracks of Hanna Montana...

[KWT]

Convection still wrapping around Ike, with some fairly good convection on the SE side of the storm. I suspect we will see slow but steady strengthening from this system and for this to getting the healines about 7-10 days time.

[tolakram]

[bob rulz]

Whats the record number of storms to hit Conus in one particular season?

I mean we are barely in September!!!

Ike looks like he is going to make his way into the gulf as well!

I don't know what the record is, but 2004 had 8 landfalling tropical cyclones in the U.S., of which 5 were hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, Jeanne) and 3 were major hurricanes. It goes up to 9 if you count Ivan II. Charley also made a second landfall as a hurricane. Don't forget Alex, which didn't technically make landfall but was close enough.

2005 had 7 landfalling U.S. storms, of which 5 were also hurricanes (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) and 4 were major hurricanes (Dennis made landfall as a 3 I think), although of course Katrina made 2 landfalls as a hurricane. Not to mention Ophelia; same situation as with Alex in 2004 just not as strong.

This year is up to 4 already, including 2 hurricanes, although none have made U.S. landfall as a major.

[KWT]

I think 1985 is up there as well with number of TC's hitting the US.

tolakram, that certainly looks like a developing TS to me, the convection wrapping around the center, indeed I may even go as far as to say that looks a little like maybe the start of an inner core developing on some of the microwave images there, though for now the key thing to note is the banding occuring. I've no doubt this is steadily strengthening as of now.

T-nmbers should slowly increase over the next 24hrs I'd think.

[RattleMan]

The NHC's Graphic Tropical Weather Outlook from Edouard up thru the declaration of Ike:

http://drop.io/x6w55qv (click the film strip graphic)

[Cryomaniac]

Kick the baby!

[bob rulz]

The NHC's Graphic Tropical Weather Outlook from Edouard up thru the declaration of Ike:

http://drop.io/x6w55qv (click the film strip graphic)

Wow, really cool!

But why does it suddenly get really fuzzy a few seconds in?

[KBBOCA]

It's posts like this one that keep me addicted to S2K in Hurricane season. I truly appreciate those who are willing to take the time to answer questions and do some research. Great info. Thanks so much!

Whats the record number of storms to hit Conus in one particular season?

I mean we are barely in September!!!

Ike looks like he is going to make his way into the gulf as well!

I don't know what the record is, but 2004 had 8 landfalling tropical cyclones in the U.S., of which 5 were hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, Jeanne) and 3 were major hurricanes. It goes up to 9 if you count Ivan II. Charley also made a second landfall as a hurricane. Don't forget Alex, which didn't technically make landfall but was close enough.

2005 had 7 landfalling U.S. storms, of which 5 were also hurricanes (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) and 4 were major hurricanes (Dennis made landfall as a 3 I think), although of course Katrina made 2 landfalls as a hurricane. Not to mention Ophelia; same situation as with Alex in 2004 just not as strong.

This year is up to 4 already, including 2 hurricanes, although none have made U.S. landfall as a major.

[bob rulz]

It's posts like this one that keep me addicted to S2K in Hurricane season. I truly appreciate those who are willing to take the time to answer questions and do some research. Great info. Thanks so much!

No problem! I'm a bit of a stats geek, so I'm always happy to oblige when I can...

[KWT]

So looks like the NHC now expecting 80kts out of this but in the longer term they probably would like to go higher even though in truth they probably can't. we've seen so many times a hurricane with an inner core really strengthen past 18N and 55W as they start to reach increasingly warm waters and higher heat content.