Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ed Mahmoud]

Horrible track, some big ones have taken this path before..

But just a 40 knot storm in the Bahamas.


Of course, it hasn't reached the Gulf Stream yet by hour 126...

Exactly Ed, a tropical storm southern Bahamas in Mid August...the potential is well..

If the GFDL is right, that path could suggests a double Florida landfall, South Florida then the Panhandle.


I will say, 500 mb heights from my PPV AccuWx run of the GFDL show a trough with the axis right down the East Coast, so maybe it'll be a last minute recurve.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't like the GFDL at all...

And as we all know, the models have a hard time handling intensity forecast...If the GFDL verifies and this actually does hold together and make it to TD status the media in South Florida is going to have a field day later this week I'm thinking...

[bosag]

Well this should be interesting, Im cat-sitting for 2 different cats in 2 seperate houses. (family is going to vegas for my brothers wedding-Im staying since Im the only one w/ kids, and w/ school starting next week, vegas wasnt happening). and the best part if it comes this way.........we have a dog LOL! so I'd better remind them to leave their carriers in eyesight.

Barb

[Extremeweatherguy]

It actually is a little stronger than 40 knots. At the end of the GFDL run, it is a 46 knot storm...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[jaxfladude]

So in lay speak? A strong TS at most???
Please info me....

[x-y-no]

It actually is a little stronger than 40 knots. At the end of the GFDL run, it is a 46 knot storm...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Keep in mind those winds are at 35 meters elevation.

[HURAKAN]

So in lay speak? A strong TS at most???
Please info me....

At this point, it could be nothing, or a TD, or a TS or a hurricane. We have to wait.

[wzrgirl1]

you guys know intensity is so hard to predict even from the models

[ronjon]

If the GFDL is right, that path could suggests a double Florida landfall, South Florida then the Panhandle.

I will say, 500 mb heights from my PPV AccuWx run of the GFDL show a trough with the axis right down the East Coast, so maybe it'll be a last minute recurve.

Ed, interesting how the Euro really pumps up the 500 mb ridge and keeps the midwest trough weaker which brings 92L much further south - actually south of Cuba into the NW caribbean. I like the GFDL for 48-72 hr tracks but this far out I'm not sure it has the upper level dynamics right (not sure the Euro does either it just has a better record on long term synoptics).

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF track is almost similar to GFDL.It has a hurricane but weakens to a tropical storm in the Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[wzrgirl1]

i wonder what it sees to cause it to weaken....but that is before it hits the gulfstream if it does

[blp]

I just saw that brings it to 977MB NE of the Islands in 60 hrs.

[blp]

i wonder what it sees to cause it to weaken....but that is before it hits the gulfstream if it does

I am thinking it has to do with a southerwesterly flow that will be around florida. Wxman57 had a graphic showing a trough axis sitting over Florida that would cause this flow. We are talking more than 5 days out so it remains to be seen what will be there.

[Recurve]

GFDL has it up to 60 knots and then back down to 40. That must be shear or trough influence in the area of the Bahamas. I don't like the track at ALL. TS heading through the Turks & Caicos and a possibly monster ridge, no thank you.

I guess the HWRF is just as bad, or worse intensity wise.

[wzrgirl1]

I know recurve...things are setting up to be a little discerning this evening. As we know a lot can change however the trends are what we need to look for at this point because it is probably only 2-3 days away from the islands and about 5-6 days from the EC at this speed.

[deltadog03]

looks like euro has a descent upper anticyclone over the top...centern around the bahamas on day 5

[Recurve]

I'm coming in a bit late, watching to see if 92L was developing. It is, at least a larger area of convection.

So I see we have good consensus on tracks all across or just above the Antilles. Bad tracks, but if the intensity forecasts are on target, not much of a storm.

If it gets together and we see its true speed, we'll have a better handle on threat times. Right now I've calculated velocity of 18 to 22 knots, which doesn't give anyone a whole lot of time if it continues.

Seems only the southern lesser antilles are likely out of the woods.

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Model Guidance.Moving more slowly at 9 kts,315 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 120057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC TUE AUG 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080812 0000 080812 1200 080813 0000 080813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 48.2W 14.8N 50.1W 16.3N 52.0W 17.9N 54.3W
BAMD 13.5N 48.2W 14.7N 50.0W 16.1N 51.8W 17.4N 53.6W
BAMM 13.5N 48.2W 14.7N 49.9W 16.1N 51.8W 17.4N 53.7W
LBAR 13.5N 48.2W 14.9N 50.0W 16.6N 51.9W 18.0N 54.2W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080814 0000 080815 0000 080816 0000 080817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 56.3W 22.2N 60.9W 24.4N 65.2W 26.0N 68.3W
BAMD 18.5N 55.3W 19.3N 58.7W 19.3N 62.0W 18.9N 64.6W
BAMM 18.7N 55.5W 20.0N 59.3W 20.7N 63.3W 21.0N 66.3W
LBAR 19.0N 56.2W 20.0N 61.5W 20.3N 66.9W 20.7N 70.8W
SHIP 55KTS 66KTS 65KTS 61KTS
DSHP 55KTS 66KTS 65KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 48.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 47.3W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 45.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Recurve]

18Z NAM rolling in and likes the chances for further development especially in about 48 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Very similar to GFS, ending with a 1004 low north of the greater antilles it looks like.

[wzrgirl1]

models seem to have shifted more north ?