Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Aric Dunn]

Still waiting for nothing......

hardly call it nothing ... lol

I need some heavy tropical precipitation soon or else pars of NE Florida may be burning again this year....send some of that heavy tropical precipitation my way please....

thats better ... it explains everything ..

[Aric Dunn]

i tell you what.. if the system keeps moving as slow as it is ... the trough that is forecast to come into play in about 4 days will be able to pick the system up before it completely dies over the mountains of mexico.. cause at this rate of a slow WNW motion it may hit the the BOC not tomorrow but monday lol .. and the trough is forecast just 2 days later and the ridge will be weakening and sliding east before that,..

[NDG]

Looking at visible imagery, it looks like it's looks lost some of its organization again. The LLC seems to be near 19N 89W and moving WNW. While, most of the deep convection appears to be associated with the MLC spinning around the northern coast of Belize.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I still see it near 18.2 N & 88.8W, not as much separation

Chetumal is reporting E winds, so that means tha the center of circulation is SSW or SW of them, near the coordinates that I gave.

[Frank2]

The Miami NWSFO AFD of Thursday was correct - the tropical moisture has been pushed southward again, so, aside from our nocturnal tradewind showers along the southeast coast and Keys, not much moisture for now, it seems (though I'm hoping to be wrong, at least when it comes to beneficial rains)...

It seems that Alma remnants and/or 90L combined are moving westward at a steady enough pace that the trough later in the week would be far too late to have any effect - we'll see...

[cycloneye]

Look what happens in 192 hours according to the 12z GFS.

[NDG]

Interesting that Euro and the GFS take this system eventually into isthmus of MX or EPAC but living behind a trough of low pressure in the GOH, developing a new system by the end of next week in that area, with a weakness in the central US tracking north into the GOM.

12z GFS continues with this solution, tracking a new system northward to the NE or Central Gulfcoast.

[Thunder44]

So I wonder now, if they are going to task a recon to go in there on Sunday, assuming it does go back out into the BOC.

as of right now... yes...... there still is plenty of time though.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 31 MAY 2008
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2008
WSPOD NUMBER.....08-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 01/1530Z
D. 19.5N AND 92.0W
E. 01/1800Z TO 02/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 24HR FIXES AT 02/1800Z
NEAR 19.5N AND 94.5 W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
WVW

Thanks.

[tailgater]

Looking at visible imagery, it looks like it's looks lost some of its organization again. The LLC seems to be near 19N 89W and moving WNW. While, most of the deep convection appears to be associated with the MLC spinning around the northern coast of Belize.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I still see it near 18.2 N & 88.8W, not as much separation

Chetumal is reporting E winds, so that means tha the center of circulation is SSW or SW of them, near the coordinates that I gave.

I got the same thing, drifting NW maybe, high coming down from gulf coast might just push it South or SW

[Aric Dunn]

WOW!!!

460
WTNT31 KNHC 311658
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...FIRST STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC
SEASON...QUICKLY FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...ALREADY MOVING
INLAND...

AT 1 PM EDT...1700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE....AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO
CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA..IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND
ABOUT 195 MILES ...315 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

[Stratosphere747]

Showing Arthur on the NHC site..

[WeatherNLU]

460
WTNT31 KNHC 311658
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...FIRST STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC
SEASON...QUICKLY FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...ALREADY MOVING
INLAND...

AT 1 PM EDT...1700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE....AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO
CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA..IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND
ABOUT 195 MILES ...315 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

Deleted.

[Aric Dunn]

460
WTNT31 KNHC 311658
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...FIRST STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC
SEASON...QUICKLY FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE...ALREADY MOVING
INLAND...

AT 1 PM EDT...1700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE....AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO
CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA..IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND
ABOUT 195 MILES ...315 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER YUCATAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

Hmmmm......no way THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE.

ITS very real

[Aric Dunn]

too all the skeptics.. im shaking my head..
i'll say it again
you just never know!!

actually it sort of caught me off guard..


ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

[fwbbreeze]

so just who is this weatherNLU??

[Aric Dunn]

nice cone of error.. quite far north ...

[Aric Dunn]

so just who is this weatherNLU??

good question?

oh and its may 31st lol

[RL3AO]

I can't believe this.

[Stratosphere747]

Setting up to be a serious flooding issue....

[Aric Dunn]

697
WTNT41 KNHC 311710
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1700Z 18.1N 88.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 91.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 94.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 95.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 18.5N 96.5W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

[cycloneye]

I would like to see what Derek and wxman57 say about this huge surprise development.