EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Yep very impressive looking system there, I think Derek estimate of 45kts is about right now I've seen it in vis.imagery for the first time.
When is the next advisory by the way?

[Thunder44]

Yep very impressive looking system there, I think Derek estimate of 45kts is about right now I've seen it in vis.imagery for the first time.
When is the next advisory by the way?

11am EDT

[NDG]

It has a very nice inflow & outflow setup on its western quadrant this morning, looking good this morning.

[Thunder44]

QS pass at 11:58 UTC this morning shows some 40-50kt barbs just off the Nicaragua coast:

[Chacor]

Appear to be rain-marred.

[HURAKAN]

Alma looking good today. I won't be as present as normal because I got a cold and fever.

[cycloneye]

Hey Sandy,get fine very soon!.

[KWT]

Yep its looking very impressive right now!
Southern quadrant looks pretty decent right now as well with a real good inflow channel. Also looks like a good circulation as well with the convection banding really nicely around the systems LLC.

Also thanks for information about the next advisory, not long till we have Alma then!

[Duddy]

Does the rapid develpment of Alma mean we can expect the same thing in the Carib. this season?

Are we looking at another 2005?

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/1145 UTC 11.3N 86.7W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific Ocean

[hurricanefloyd5]

Does the rapid develpment of Alma mean we can expect the same thing in the Carib. this season?

Are we looking at another 2005?

Not I don't think we will see 28 Name storms this year in our basin!!!!!!!

[KWT]

Well it hasn't undergone RI yet, it does appear to have developed pretty quickly however you can't really use the conditions for one system to ponder whether wee will have an active season over here.

[Thunder44]

This is microwave imagery that was taken earlier this morning. It was developing a very good inner core.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 291429
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALMA...THE FIRST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NAMED
CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CENTER AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...PRIMARILY ON THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED. BASED
ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT
40 KNOTS. ALMA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS...STEERED
BY A LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AS ALMA MOVES
NORTHWARD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEEP LAYER MEAN
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. BY THEN...ALMA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND AND WEAKENING
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS BOTH GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS.

ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS WHICH COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAUSING DANGEROUS
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 11.5N 86.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 12.5N 87.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[Chacor]

TS Alma is here.

WTPZ31 KNHC 291429
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALMA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON
FORMS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA NORTHWESTWARD TO EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 220
MILES ...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALMA WILL REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT AND OVER
THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE ALMA MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...11.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[KWT]

Yep well here we go again in the EPAC, tropical storm Alma is here.

Southern side looks real good at the moment, there certainly does appear to be a developing inner core and a noteable warm spot close to where the center should be.

Forecasted to get upto 45kts but given that inner core it could well end up a little higher then that given its good apperence.

[Chacor]

The first time we see this new experimental graphic in use:

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Thats very useful graphic Chacor as it gives an indication of just how large the wind field of Alma actually is, as well showing its previous track.

Should be too much loonger till landfall, should be inland before the day is out I should think.