ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

JB is short for
Just
Blatantardi

JB is very much his own person with strong views...

[Grease Monkey]

Well if Hanna is drifting SE like some have mentioned wouldn't a S FL threat chance get slimmer and slimmer by the second?

[Aric Dunn]

IMO weakening trends continue

turks and caicos observations show pressure's rising quite steadily (2mb in last 90 minutes)

also further deterioraton of satelite presentation..............upwelling?? perhaps aric.....

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv

again unlikely.. most likely the center is moving away from that location

[SouthFLTropics]

Well if Hanna is drifting SE like some have mentioned wouldn't a S FL threat chance get slimmer and slimmer by the second?

I would think that the longer the storm hangs out down South the more chance it could have to impact us here in SF. Just my two cents...

SFT

[windycity]

You asked my question Jeremy,and i wish there were some answers. It is going to be really hard for me to sleep tonight, knowing i could wake up to a path change. The thought of going through what we experienced in 04 is nerve racking to say the least, so can anybody guesstimate the chances of feeling hurricane force winds here in palm beach county?

[cpdaman]

IMO weakening trends continue

turks and caicos observations show pressure's rising quite steadily (2mb in last 90 minutes)

also further deterioraton of satelite presentation..............upwelling?? perhaps aric.....

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv

again unlikely.. most likely the center is moving away from that location

perhaps sliding east but.......

well how do you explain (the reason) for this

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

there just happens to be a "cool" eddy on the updated TCHP chart right there, right where the poster that said IR2 puts her at 71.6 ,at the same time her satelite appearance on the above link is crapping out hmmmmmmmmm

[Aric Dunn]

IMO weakening trends continue

turks and caicos observations show pressure's rising quite steadily (2mb in last 90 minutes)

also further deterioraton of satelite presentation..............upwelling?? perhaps aric.....

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv

again unlikely.. most likely the center is moving away from that location

well how do you explain this

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

to the poster that said IR2 puts her at 71.6 , there just happens to be a "cool" eddy on the updated TCHP chart right there, at the same time her satelite appearance on my link is crapping out hmmmmmmmmm

clouds.....

[Philly12]

That new IR2 puts the center near 22N-71.6W

Movement still SE.

If you put the track on you will see they have it going all the way back to 69.8 Go figure

I think that's Ike's 5 day position at 69.8.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks AJC3 for that explanation! Clears things up....but this storm is
still confusing. What is happening with the cut off low?

[Blown Away]

That new IR2 puts the center near 22N-71.6W Movement still SE.

[/quote]

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?

[Grease Monkey]

Well if Hanna is drifting SE like some have mentioned wouldn't a S FL threat chance get slimmer and slimmer by the second?

I would think that the longer the storm hangs out down South the more chance it could have to impact us here in SF. Just my two cents...

SFT

I don't think it matters too much if it's drifting south, but whether or not it's drifting SE or SW makes a difference. SW would greater the chances of a S FL impact and a SE movement would do the opposite?

[wzrgirl1]

I don't think it changes the track much as that was a predicted move by the nhc

[cpdaman]

hanna is currently moving right over that

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8244at.jpg

cool eddy ........

[Aric Dunn]

That new IR2 puts the center near 22N-71.6W Movement still SE.

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?[/quote]
does not change much in the long term

[storms in NC]

That new IR2 puts the center near 22N-71.6W

Movement still SE.

If you put the track on you will see they have it going all the way back to 69.8 Go figure

I think that's Ike's 5 day position at 69.8.

I thought I was going to have to call the little men in white coats

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

You asked my question Jeremy,and i wish there were some answers. It is going to be really hard for me to sleep tonight, knowing i could wake up to a path change. The thought of going through what we experienced in 04 is nerve racking to say the least, so can anybody guesstimate the chances of feeling hurricane force winds here in palm beach county?

Based on the current Hurricane Center Track, you would get gusts to 40-50 mph,
but higher winds and hurricane conditions should stay well offshore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[Grease Monkey]

I don't think it changes the track much as that was a predicted move by the nhc

I think they predicted a SW movement but only to a certain extent. The more it deviates further west from their track, the more the overall track will shift south, but if it's currently drifting SE, I think it's lessoning the chances of the overall track changing further south.

[txwatcher91]

hanna is currently moving right over that

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8244at.jpg

cool eddy ........

Because of clouds in the area...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What if it goes very far SE and gets stuck and the first trough misses???
Or is that not likely?

[tolakram]

Some strange looks with Hanna, wonder if that pesky ULL is still in the mix in there?