ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[storms in NC]

Okay I know I went and ate BBQ Chichen But I didn't know it went all the way back to 69.8. What happen? Boy I got a lot of reading to do.

Been thought a cat 3 here a few times so I know I would be fine. 4-5 I think I would leave

[HURAKAN]

Shows how active 2008 has been. Just behind 1995 and 2005.

[BensonTCwatcher]

just got home from Southport NC this weekend. No TV, no computer. Bur the chat was turning to Hanna. Many times a storm in this area tracks N up the coast. All depends on the ULL in Canadaian maritimes. Shoot busy week ahead....

[tolakram]

[cpdaman]

any pro's watching hanna right now care to comment on her structure right now

loops are difficult to discern things right now because you have two circulations at different levels in the atmosphere i would assume. a ULL and Hanna and they are partially overlayed which is making things appear "strange". Assuming hanna has not done anything crazy (any south movement) it is relatively safe to say she is in the process of getting away from the ULL (which is diving SSW) and that hanna will be creating more distance from this feature in at least the short term although she will be hampered by some dry air that she entrained, how long this hampers her is anyone guess

Obviously, Hanna is still tangled up with the ULL. Like I said this morning...it still has a period of tough times to get through first before conditions become less hostile for a while. However, more difficult times are waiting in the wings in a few days as it comes under increasing northerly shear.

The first thing Hanna will need to do is get itself away from the ULL , which I alluded to this morning was going to be a slow process, before any possibility of intensification begins. I would expect Hanna to turn more to the WNW and eventually westward as what is being forecast by the NHC, with no strenghtening until is draws farther away from the ULL and the outflow pattern improves.

Keep an eye on WV over the next couple days to monitor the evolution of the eastern CONUS ridge and the cutoff low that's forecast to develop to it's east and dig southward. Also, it'll give you a good idea to what extent the outflow form Gustav will impinge on Hanna.

Exactly where this cutoff forms will have huge implifcations for the track and intensity of Hanna: the farther west this takes place, the more erosion of the DLM ridge north of Hanna will occur, which will slow/stop it's forward motion, and the stronger the northerly flow impinging on the cyclone will be. Farther east would mean that the ridge would be jutting out a bit farther into the ATLC...this Hanna would be more likely to continue a motion with a slow westward component. In the latter scenario, I don't know that the upper tropospheric shear would be appreciably weaker - a lot depends on how quickly the outflow associated with Gustav wanes after landfall. I still think we're looking at ~40kt of UL flow impinging on Hanna, which would induce weakening. YOMV.

this is from two days ago as our good met AJC3 told us what to look for down the road

well the days of hanna being sheard by the ULL are gone, now lets look at the evolution of the cut off low (and wether it is further east or west)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

since this is a fairly serious situation for many, someone with the insights please feel free to PLEASE chime in.

[skufful]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

[Blown Away]

As an amateur Hanna has me confused. I like climatology and it says very low probability of a hurricane from the SE landfalling from N Florida to about Charleston. I always error with a last minute turn to the N towards the Carolinas, but the prediction of this W building ridge says no for now from N.C to the east. All models except for the Ukmet pass just E of Florida, strangely because of the model confidence I'm not to worried even though Hanna is forecasted to be only 100 miles E of me in a few days. I'm just not ready to accept a N Florida, Georgia, or lower S.C landfall, but maybe I should. If I was going to bet money rate now I still would put it on Florida S of Melbourne or E of the S.C/N.C. line.

[mawolf3]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

Doesnt he always predict that?

[BensonTCwatcher]

JB was just on fox stating anywhere from St Simon I to Wilmlington with a Strong Cat 2, probably a Cat 3 or stronger storm. I know it's JB but he did point out the size of the storm. Very concerning, Looks like Floyd, Hugo, Fran set up. Classic Atlantic HC setup for us. It

[SouthFLTropics]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

Let the hype machine build again...I'm not trying to downplay Hanna because she may indeed have a significant impact on a portion of the SE CONUS but come on...JB makes every storm seem like the end of the world...

SFT

[Sanibel]

That new IR2 puts the center near 22N-71.6W

Movement still SE.

[latemodel25]

yeah, sideswipe fl and ultimately wind up in d.c. as a cat 1.

[skufful]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

Doesnt he always predict that?

He's never pointed at Savannah/Bft, that I can remember. Hopefully, as usual, the storm path will continually change to the North.

[Evil Jeremy]

So, what is the potential threat to SFL at this point?

[jaxfladude]

Close brush(TS winds around 45 to 55 w/ higher gust around 60) by Hanna at the worst come later this week...



That is my final offer for Hana's whirlwind!!!
ha ha ha I made a funny...

[Aric Dunn]

much better pass.. clearly showing the center and the eyewall open to the south..

[invest man]

Okay I know I went and ate BBQ Chichen But I didn't know it went all the way back to 69.8. What happen? Boy I got a lot of reading to do.

Been thought a cat 3 here a few times so I know I would be fine. 4-5 I think I would leave

I remember the setup with both Hugo and Floyd. It seems that we may have something close to that of Hugo where it came in around central SC up thru Charlotte NC whereas was not Floyd stirred by an on coming cold front lifting it nne then ne as it curved close to the Fla coast up around the Wilm area causing mass flooding in the eastern NC area. My question is which setup is closer now unless the high builds in and moves it west into Fla which I do not see happening at this point. Also heard JB make comment on FOX that he expects a major cane in SE heading n to DC and then toward Boston area. IM

[BensonTCwatcher]

So, what is the potential threat to SFL at this point?

well all guidance is sketchy until it piked up by the sub-tropical ridge building in and it starts moving. So, SE Fl to OBX looks like a threat right now. Add in climo history and I'd say this is a bit more likely to end up in SC or NC in the end

[cpdaman]

IMO weakening trends continue

turks and caicos observations show pressure's rising quite steadily (2mb in last 90 minutes)

also further RAPID deterioraton of satelite presentation..............upwelling?? perhaps aric.....

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[storms in NC]

That new IR2 puts the center near 22N-71.6W

Movement still SE.

If you put the track on you will see they have it going all the way back to 69.8 Go figure