ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Ok, here is the key to Hanna's forecast track. She is in an area of weak steering currents for the next 48 hours. It may all depend on how far west or southwest she gets in the weak flow before making her way NW after 48 hours. The forecast challenge is the next two days - its pretty certain the track she will go once high pressure in the central Atlantic builds westward from the east - a NW then N track as Hanna rides along the western edge of the mid-level ridge.

I couldn't have put it better myself. Bravo Ronjon, bravo!

[cpdaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

978.9 mb wind swung to SE (from sw) earlier i.e storm swung SE from WNW of this locale to know just SSW

[AtlanticWind]

One good thing, hanna may upwell some cooler waters before Ike arrives to the same area .

[greels]

Hanna is literally over us and it has been still like this for hours......she is stalled, that is for sure. Crickets happily chirping.

Still under Hurricane warning....

[Regit]

What's really going to be tons of fun with this storm is planning evacuations. As someone with experience in emergency management, I can attest to the fact that storms bending up the east coast at an uncertain speed can really make EM officials second guess themselves. Because of the angle of the coast line, a small jump off track can cause landfall to occur many miles up or down the coast from the forecast spot. Therefore, these type of storms can sometimes cause massive evacuations (see Floyd).

[cpdaman]

Hanna is literally over us and it has been still like this for hours......she is stalled, that is for sure. Crickets happily chirping.

Still under Hurricane warning....

she appears to have moved slightly SE from a postion WNW of you to just SW of you

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Hanna is literally over us and it has been still like this for hours......she is stalled, that is for sure. Crickets happily chirping.

Still under Hurricane warning....

Has flooding been a problem for you on the island?

~Beth~

[Aric Dunn]

One good thing, hanna may upwell some cooler waters before Ike arrives to the same area .

unlikely .. the depths of the isotherm are high and the heat content is moderate to high ..

[Aric Dunn]

What's really going to be tons of fun with this storm is planning evacuations. As someone with experience in emergency management, I can attest to the fact that storms bending up the east coast at an uncertain speed can really make EM officials second guess themselves. Because of the angle of the coast line, a small jump off track can cause landfall to occur many miles up or down the coast from the forecast spot. Therefore, these type of storms can sometimes cause massive evacuations (see Floyd).

yes many examples of that problem .. lets see .. FLOYD , bertha 96

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hanna is literally over us and it has been still like this for hours......she is stalled, that is for sure. Crickets happily chirping.

Still under Hurricane warning....

Stay safe.

[KWT]

cpdaman, pressure still dropping slowly then I see, now down to 978mbs, very interesting and suggesting that this system is still getting slowly stronger now.

NHC suggesting landfall as a cat-2 at 85kts, seems like thats stil la touch low but its getting closer to the model guidence slowly but surely as Hanna continues to strengthen steadily.

[orion]

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My take on Hanna... while shear http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF is much more than you would expect for a hurricane strengthening as much as she has - look at those reds and grays on the sat loop - the shear tendency http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF is currently decreasing west and southwest and increasing to the north and east. Along with the shear though, there is plenty of upper level divergence http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.GIF.

Not a lot of steering currents there now, so I think Hanna will continue to just sort of hang out and meander around until the ridge builds back in, but I think a stronger Hanna will feel the ridge sooner and head northwestward (coming very close to FL coast), then north. Will be interesting to see what the next run of the models show, but I am thinking an slight eastward shift, perhaps bringing Hanna more toward the central coast of SC.

~Jeff

[cpdaman]

when floyd was still ESE of S. fl moving west that was probably the biggest scariest hurricane i can remember..... sorry memory's....

hanna satelilte convection continues to ....erode on the eastern side

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Regit]

What's really going to be tons of fun with this storm is planning evacuations. As someone with experience in emergency management, I can attest to the fact that storms bending up the east coast at an uncertain speed can really make EM officials second guess themselves. Because of the angle of the coast line, a small jump off track can cause landfall to occur many miles up or down the coast from the forecast spot. Therefore, these type of storms can sometimes cause massive evacuations (see Floyd).

yes many examples of that problem .. lets see .. FLOYD , bertha 96

Yes, I spoke to a friend who's still in EM who told me that South Carolina is preparing the plans for each of its coastal counties just in case. Going over everything to make sure they're ready to implement as soon as needed.

I'm kind of worried about Beaufort County and those areas in the southern part of the state. They've had to evacuate for many a storm that never came. Hopefully, there aren't a lot of people with the attitude that it will never happen to them.

[captain east]

I'm in SE FL and am started to get stressed to when or if we need to put shutters up. I don't want to have this thing to turn on it's way north and were unprepared...

[caneman]

I'm in SE FL and am started to get stressed to when or if we need to put shutters up. I don't want to have this thing to turn on it's way north and were unprepared...

No need to be stressed. Points North currently seem to be at the greatest risk currently; however, you just don't know so you should always be prepared.

[stormchazer]

What's really going to be tons of fun with this storm is planning evacuations. As someone with experience in emergency management, I can attest to the fact that storms bending up the east coast at an uncertain speed can really make EM officials second guess themselves. Because of the angle of the coast line, a small jump off track can cause landfall to occur many miles up or down the coast from the forecast spot. Therefore, these type of storms can sometimes cause massive evacuations (see Floyd).

yes many examples of that problem .. lets see .. FLOYD , bertha 96

Yes, I spoke to a friend who's still in EM who told me that South Carolina is preparing the plans for each of its coastal counties just in case. Going over everything to make sure they're ready to implement as soon as needed.

I'm kind of worried about Beaufort County and those areas in the southern part of the state. They've had to evacuate for many a storm that never came. Hopefully, there aren't a lot of people with the attitude that it will never happen to them.

I hope they are. I lived in Charleston, SC when Floyd approached. I left 36 hrs before landfall was expected and it took 5 and 1/2 hours to get to Columbia, SC. That is a whole 92 miles from my former home there. Like many areas, it can be an evacuation nightmare.

[Stephanie]

I'm in SE FL and am started to get stressed to when or if we need to put shutters up. I don't want to have this thing to turn on it's way north and were unprepared...

Just get everything prepared now - I wouldn't put anything up yet. IMHO, once she starts making her turn, you'll have a better idea as to where she may or may not be headed.

[cheezyWXguy]

when floyd was still ESE of S. fl moving west that was probably the biggest scariest hurricane i can remember..... sorry memory's....

hanna satelilte convection continues to ....erode on the eastern side

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

I think hanna is getting to the point where she is about to try to wrap that convection to her north around the center and develop an eye. I dont think it will work just yet due to high shear, but I expect a slow strengthening over the next 36 hours, followed by a quicker strengthening when shear dies off.

[Blown Away]

Will recon sample the building ridge to determine its strength?