ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Since Hanna is forecast to be about 100 miles away from me in 3-4 days can I get some questions answered:
1. If Hanna deepens more than predicted will the steering currents take her more W or E of the track?
2. If Hanna moves slower will that allow the ridge to build in more and push her more W along the track?
3. What is the confidence level this ridge will be as strong as they are predicting?
4. Which side of the 2+ day track is more likely to happen W or E and why?
5. Do you think the NHC has alot of confidence in this track now?
Thanks...

[KWT]

Indeed Hurakan, I have to admit thats one of the bigger CDO's I've seen in recent years, still got very deep convection and I can only wonder what Dmax will do for this system!

[x-y-no]

Hanna is so big and likely, growing, that even if the storm follows the NHC's track, most of Florida will have some impacts.

A track through the eastern Bahamas would mean essentially no impact for South Florida. NE Florida, say the Cape north to the border, would see TS conditions for sure, maybe hurricane conditions in the norther part of that range.

Shift the track left through the western Bahamas and that would be TS for SFL, potential hurricane from maybe Ft. Pierce north.

[skufful]

I'll preface by noting that I'm up here in NC, and my folks live near Savannah...so either way, I'm going to be watching and praying. And believe me anyone in Florida who wants first crack at Hanna is welcome to her.

Now, I was under the impression that the bigger the storm, the more likely it was to turn poleward unless it was blocked. But earlier some folks here said that because Hanna was getting better organized, she was more likely to move to the west than earlier forecast.

Is that because the models originally figured she'd be pushed by lower level steering currents, but now a bigger storm is being steered by higher level winds? Is it that the larger size simply means there more of Hanna to love?

Thanks for any insight....

You are probably about as popular (Clemson Fan) there, as I am here (Tarheel)

[mawolf3]

At least 2 of the Mets on West Coast of FL say we will only get dry weather cuz we will be on west side of Hanna. They seem pretty confident lol

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

5. Do you think the NHC has alot of confidence in this track now?
Thanks...

Long range = No (see disco)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/012050.shtml

[CourierPR]

Some posters are referencing climatology with regard to Hanna's future track. Climatology is not an entity in itself. It is a meteorological history.

[Aric Dunn]

Since Hanna is forecast to be about 100 miles away from me in 3-4 days can I get some questions answered:
1. If Hanna deepens more than predicted will the steering currents take her more W or E of the track?
2. If Hanna moves slower will that allow the ridge to build in more and push her more W along the track?
3. What is the confidence level this ridge will be as strong as they are predicting?
4. Which side of the 2+ day track is more likely to happen W or E and why?
5. Do you think the NHC has alot of confidence in this track now?
Thanks...

ask tomorrow .. there are too many uncertainties while its not moving once there is some motion then those answers can be answered with a better degree of accuracy

[RevDodd]

I'll preface by noting that I'm up here in NC, and my folks live near Savannah...so either way, I'm going to be watching and praying. And believe me anyone in Florida who wants first crack at Hanna is welcome to her.

Now, I was under the impression that the bigger the storm, the more likely it was to turn poleward unless it was blocked. But earlier some folks here said that because Hanna was getting better organized, she was more likely to move to the west than earlier forecast.

Is that because the models originally figured she'd be pushed by lower level steering currents, but now a bigger storm is being steered by higher level winds? Is it that the larger size simply means there more of Hanna to love?

Thanks for any insight....

You are probably about as popular (Clemson Fan) there, as I am here (Tarheel)

I dunno...I bet the folks in Alabama love us right now!

[fci]

[quote="txwatcher91Well, chart shows a West wind several hours ago meaning the center was to its west, now the S and SSE winds mean the center may have drifted south, sorry got my directions mixed up some.

FCI, just based on a combo of the 18Z GFS shifting east, climo, a stronger Hanna possible, and an approaching trough would mean quicker N motion, all IMO however.[/quote]


TX:
I am all for a quicker motion to the North.
That would be great news and would finally get Hanna out of my head so I could singularly concentrate on her brother who will presumably be in about the same location this coming weekend.
But..... the comments from earlier in the thread said that a stronger Hanna would be apt to go further west and also a comment looking to the 00Z as a more reliable model run; tell me that thoughts of the East shift may be premature.
Hope you are right!!!

[wxwonder12]

anytime imparticular that watches would go up for S Fla or is that not warranted at this time due to the uncertainty of the track.

[Aric Dunn]

catches the center partially

[windycity]

Good questions, Blown away. Hopefully by 11 we can get a few of those answered!

[KWT]

x-y-no, the NHC track is close enough to Florida that I suppose its not hard to imagine a TS warning and maybe een hurricane watch may be needed for central and northern parts of Florida eventually.

[Aric Dunn]

anytime imparticular that watches would go up for S Fla or is that not warranted at this time due to the uncertainty of the track.

according to Hurrevac the timing is beyond 72 hours for any effects so tomorrow we will no more.

only 36hrs out for watches and we have almost 3 days till it approaches the coast according to the present advisory

[KWT]

Aric Dunn, not really a cklassic look but then again we didn't catch the SW side and it may look better then I'm giving it credit for, clearly its still a decent category-1 hurricane thats strengthening.

The thing I do have to admit is the NE quadrant loosk very impressive right now, I'd expect nothing less with the deep convection.

[ronjon]

Ok, here is the key to Hanna's forecast track. She is in an area of weak steering currents for the next 48 hours. It may all depend on how far west or southwest she gets in the weak flow before making her way NW after 48 hours. The forecast challenge is the next two days - its pretty certain the track she will go once high pressure in the central Atlantic builds westward from the east - a NW then N track as Hanna rides along the western edge of the mid-level ridge.

[cpdaman]

Aric Dunn, not really a cklassic look but then again we didn't catch the SW side and it may look better then I'm giving it credit for, clearly its still a decent category-1 hurricane thats strengthening.

The thing I do have to admit is the NE quadrant loosk very impressive right now, I'd expect nothing less with the deep convection.

doesn't look like strengthening going on any more IMO waning convection for over an hour

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Aric Dunn]

i would suggest waiting till we have some forward motion

[captain east]

She's stationary with winds at 80 mph and pressure at 980 mb