ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

This thing is truely very large...(sorry Hanna, your a big gurl) And all along, models strengthened it. I mean good lord look at the DEEEEP reds and the GREY...shear dies off its off to the races..Cat 3 will def. be possible.

well the upper environment right now is helping the the intense convection .. as the extreme divergence around hanna is causing lot of lift

Well, I agree with you on that...I still think she will maintain this size for sure. Globals show this too be a very large one.

right i agree, it should grow more in size as well ..

i was mostly referring to the -85 to -88 cloud tops.. the upper environment is a direct cause to such intense and persistent convection of that magnitude. it should actually be studied more as i cant recall anything similar to this set up that even remotely casued this much intense convection.

[sfwx]

Check out how close it will get to you according to the NHC forecast points.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm


Eric

[mawolf3]

TWC just put up a graphic with only Northern FL just in the cone, must of it heading to SC/NC.

To me that is terrible forecasting when the NHC has South FL to NC in the cone and just made a statement that they are not sure where it is heading but anybody from South Florida to NC should pay attention

Anybody watching TWC in FL (Central or South) would get a false sense of confidence with the TWC forecast.

I posted this earlier. I dont understand why they arent showing NHC projections? Rogue reporting.

[ocala]

Hanna is about the size of Floyd from what I can best remember.

Wasn't Gilbert also a large storm? If I remember correctly didn't it take up just about all of the GOM?

[HarlequinBoy]

'Nother question...I did know where to go to get the mileage from one point to another. I know as a crow flies we are 88 miles from Wilmington, but I am trying to find the distance between here (Benson, NC) and Savannah, GA. Anyone know where I might find that info?


Angela

Google Maps?

[mawolf3]

Georgia hasn't been hit by a hurricane since 1893...

savannah/georgia coast
If there's ever been an area within the southeastern coast of the U.S. that has been lucky from getting hit by major hurricanes recently, its been the Georgia coast. Major storms such as Hugo, Fran, and Floyd all stayed north of Georgia affecting the Carolina coasts. The last time a hurricane made landfall along the Georgia coast was 1979 when David came in at Savannah Beach as a strong category 1 storm with winds around 90 mph and a storm surge up to 5 feet. The city of Savannah reported a maximum sustained wind of 58 mph. They also picked up close to 7 inches of rain. No major damage was reported there. The 1940s were an active decade for hurricanes in Georgia. In 1947, a category 1 hurricane approached from the due west and slammed right to the south of Savannah with the storm surge helping to cause a lot of damage along the city's riverfront to warehouses. A similiar situation occured in 1940 as a category 1 hurricane came in from the east killing 50. But the last major hurricane to hit Georgia was in 1893 when a category 3 struck near Brunswick and it helped bring a storm surge that inundated the city in a half a foot of water for 12 hours. 2,000 people were killed in that hurricane in the south Atlantic region.

Tampa's last was 1921 or 1927 i think. Luckier

Read the rest here
http://www.angelfire.com/ga/mrsweather/atlweather.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Impressively deep convection with this one currently. Wow just look at it:

[fci]

Check out how close it will get to you according to the NHC forecast points.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm


Eric

I LOVE that tool and use it consistently.
When I text my daughter or tell my wife about a storm threat, I always use the tool to illustrate how much of a threat a system might be.
For the non-weather nut; it is a great way to explain the danger, or not.

[Windy]

TWC just put up a graphic with only Northern FL just in the cone, must of it heading to SC/NC.

To me that is terrible forecasting when the NHC has South FL to NC in the cone and just made a statement that they are not sure where it is heading but anybody from South Florida to NC should pay attention

Anybody watching TWC in FL (Central or South) would get a false sense of confidence with the TWC forecast.

I posted this earlier. I dont understand why they arent showing NHC projections? Rogue reporting.

Again, BECAUSE THEY ARE AN INDEPENDENT, PRIVATE TEAM OF FORECASTERS WHO ARE NOT OBLIGATED TO REPRODUCE THE NHC FORECAST.

[NCWeatherChic]

Check out how close it will get to you according to the NHC forecast points.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm


Eric

THANKS!!

[mawolf3]

TWC just put up a graphic with only Northern FL just in the cone, must of it heading to SC/NC.

To me that is terrible forecasting when the NHC has South FL to NC in the cone and just made a statement that they are not sure where it is heading but anybody from South Florida to NC should pay attention

Anybody watching TWC in FL (Central or South) would get a false sense of confidence with the TWC forecast.

I posted this earlier. I dont understand why they arent showing NHC projections? Rogue reporting.

Again, BECAUSE THEY ARE AN INDEPENDENT, PRIVATE TEAM OF FORECASTERS WHO ARE NOT OBLIGATED TO REPRODUCE THE NHC FORECAST.

EXCUSE ME YOU DIDNT HAVE TO YELLLL

[stormchazer]

Just think what Hanna would look like if she was not being sheared! Sheesh!

[KWT]

Yep the convection is really impressive, the models did actually vcall for strengthening despite the shear and it seems like the conditions are indeed good enough for styrengthening to occur despite what most of us thought.

deltadog, I agree this does have the chance to become a major probably between 72-96hrs before it makes landfall, should have the gulf stream waters plus very good condtion aloft to strengthen quite rapidly.

[cycloneye]

Ok enough for the yelling,lets return to discuss in a tranquil way all about Hanna.

[mawolf3]

Ok enough for the yelling,lets return to discuss in a tranquil way all about Hanna.

thank you. i am glad this site has Moderators

[capepoint]

Channel 10 Met here in Miami just claimed that a feeder band for Hanna is moving into the SFL area.



Sure, we've got some sprinkles moving in from the NE, but that ain't no feeder band.

lol And let the hype begin.........Gustav started the race for the ratings frenzy, now to Hannah

[storms in NC]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LARGE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF HANNA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE CURRENT TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. RESIDENTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING HURRICANE
HANNA AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE DETERIORATING WEATHER
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ASSUMING THE LATEST NHC TRACK FOR RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE HANNA IS CORRECT THU WILL BE DRY AND WARM BUT
VERY BREEZY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE S LATE. FRI
AND THE FIRST PART OF SAT WOULD BE WET...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY BUT CATEGORICAL WOULD VERIFY. ONCE THE STORM EXITS TO THE
N/NE LATER SAT THE FORECAST RETURNS TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH RESPECT
TO POPS AND TEMPS.

ALL OF THE FORECAST HINGES UPON WHAT/WHERE HANNA GOES. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL
LANDFALL AROUND OR N OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO SRN FL AND ANYWHERE IN
BETWEEN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SO STAY TUNED.

Take your pick

[fci]

TWC just put up a graphic with only Northern FL just in the cone, must of it heading to SC/NC.

To me that is terrible forecasting when the NHC has South FL to NC in the cone and just made a statement that they are not sure where it is heading but anybody from South Florida to NC should pay attention

Anybody watching TWC in FL (Central or South) would get a false sense of confidence with the TWC forecast.

I posted this earlier. I dont understand why they arent showing NHC projections? Rogue reporting.

Windy responded to this issue very well earlier:

You have to remember that TWC is an independant team of forecasters with their own forecasting methodologies. They're not obligated to reproduce the NHC forecasts. Unfortunately, unlike the NHC, they don't publish statistical verification information for their forecasts, though I'm sure they gather it.

While I think TWC is wrong in not talking about the threat further south, they are, as Windy indicates; not obligated to do so if they are an independent team.

This case "may or may not" be wrong; but I respect that they go with their professional forecast if it diverges from the NHC. Someone can watch their local Met if they want a regurgitation of the NHC forecast.

[stormchazer]

FXUS62 KMLB 011859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND DANGEROUS SURF CONTINUES...
...HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST TO THREATEN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

THRU TUE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND
HURRICANE HANNA OVER THE SE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERALL WITH
STRONG NE WINDS PUSHING COASTAL SHOWERS ONSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW
CONVERGENT CLOUD BANDS SET UP AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS ONSHORE
OVER A NARROW AREA THRU TUE. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP FOR SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP A SILENT 10% INTERIOR
SECTIONS. HAVE DRAWN 20-30% POPS TUE...LIMITING THUNDER TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SHUNTED WEST OF
THE PENINSULA OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX AS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVE OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI. OUR
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AS TC HANNA MAKES THE TURN
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND PICKS UP STEAM. POP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM OVER THESE PERIODS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AHEAD OF HANNA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER
90S INLAND FOR HIGHS. FOR LOWS EXPECT MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.

THU-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ALL DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF HANNA. GFDL NOGAPS AND UKMET MOVE HANNA FURTHER
WEST THAN 00 UTC GFS BUT HWRF IS FURTHER OFFSHORE. MOST MODELS TAKE
HANNA PAST EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OFFSHORE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS AND DAY 4-5 TPC FORECAST
AND REFLECTS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY (HURRICANE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE). GFS REFLECTS INCREASING
POPS EARLY THURSDAY AS LIKELY RAINBANDS BEGIN AFFECTING COASTAL
WATERS AND COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THAT THE FORECAST FOR HANNA IS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOSE BRUSH WITH A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE OR EVEN A LANDFALL ON THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AS THE
ENTIRE AREA IS IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE TRACK OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A SIGNIFICANT MARINE AND COASTAL EVENT
WITH ROUGH SURF... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION.
FUTURE FORECASTS COULD CHANGE CONSIDERABLY SO STAY TUNED TO
LATEST FORECASTS AND TPC ADVISORIES.

MOST MODELS MOVE HANNA OUT RAPIDLY ONCE IT TURNS NORTHWARD SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
(FROM SOUTH TO NORTH) WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WEEKEND.

And more uncertainty...

[El Nino]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

980mb ...