Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[MWatkins]

NOGAPS is starting to roll out. Still west so far, but with a stronger cyclone in the model.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0m&tau=024

MW

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think I have a better chance of being struck by lightning in Fay's outer bands than seeing this GFS run verify (knock on wood). lol. In all seriousness though, I would wait until we see more run-to-run consistency before buying into this too much.

[jinftl]

when you put it like that, i am thinking that is not so implausible...lol...probably only a matter of time before bermuda, the canadian maritimes, and the azores get in some model run!

Whoa! Look at that crazy track back into the GOM. You have to be kidding me. And it's believable.

The GFS model is just flat out wrong ...must be on crack ..we would have to totally re-think all that we know about weather patterns(as much as we do at this point ) and so forth if that track happens ......



EDIT: Just my thoughts while getting very tired now folks...need to hit the sack....

[Derek Ortt]

the chance of the GFS solution of 3 us landfalls is somewhere between the chance of winning the Mega Millions and powerball jackpots in the same week and negative infinity

[btangy]

I am sure this was already mentioned...but there are two interesting things about GFS this run:

1. It was with the synoptic drops...so better model data.

2. It is very similar to the 12Z Euro...

MW

It's always hard to discount the ECMWF when it digs in its heels and it quite consistent run to run. For those that don't know the ECMWF has a much better data assimilation scheme than the GFS, i.e. it's initialization is better for large scale features. It's not to say that the ECMWF always beats out the GFS or the other global models, but I think the consensus among the model developers is that the ECMWF is the gold standard right now. I noticed it's been doing really well with genesis this year, though have no idea why. I just wish they were a bit more forthcoming with their model output like NCEP.

[DESTRUCTION5]

the chance of the GFS solution of 3 us landfalls is somewhere between the chance of winning the Mega Millions and powerball jackpots in the same week and negative infinity

LMAO!!!

[jaxfladude]

G'Night all!!!!
PS that GFS is NOT going to verify at all will it?
Please say no....

[Brent]

the chance of the GFS solution of 3 us landfalls is somewhere between the chance of winning the Mega Millions and powerball jackpots in the same week and negative infinity

[GeneratorPower]

the chance of the GFS solution of 3 us landfalls is somewhere between the chance of winning the Mega Millions and powerball jackpots in the same week and negative infinity

Are you serious? You of all people should know statistics better than that. Seeing that Hurricane Elena did something *almost* similar back in 1985 should prove that. It's just a matter of exactly how the forces in play actually set up. Definately not so impossible as all that you mentioned.

[GreenSky]

the chance of the GFS solution of 3 us landfalls is somewhere between the chance of winning the Mega Millions and powerball jackpots in the same week and negative infinity

Derek, what are your thoughts on Fay spending less time over water and traversing central Cuba (where there are some mountains)?

Probably won't get any stronger than a tropical storm before impacting Florida!

Correct me if I am wrong.

[Derek Ortt]

I am sure this was already mentioned...but there are two interesting things about GFS this run:

1. It was with the synoptic drops...so better model data.

2. It is very similar to the 12Z Euro...

MW

It's always hard to discount the ECMWF when it digs in its heels and it quite consistent run to run. For those that don't know the ECMWF has a much better data assimilation scheme than the GFS, i.e. it's initialization is better for large scale features. It's not to say that the ECMWF always beats out the GFS or the other global models, but I think the consensus among the model developers is that the ECMWF is the gold standard right now. I noticed it's been doing really well with genesis this year, though have no idea why. I just wish they were a bit more forthcoming with their model output like NCEP.

and the ECMWF's strength is MID LATITUDE weather systems

it sure can produce some truly bizarre forecasts when it comes to the tropics

[Derek Ortt]

the "mountains" of C Cuba are not going to do much of anything in all likelihood. Weak storms usually do not weaken over central and W Cuba

[GeneratorPower]

Yes, but if the ECMWF and the GFS are producing *similar* results by two very different forecast schemes, you have to believe it's caused by the underlying synoptics and NOT a particular model being out-to-lunch.

[jinftl]

That would effectively split this board into two camps...those who forsee an unimaginable meance of a storm with little climatological support to rule out any dreadful scenario (3 of them no less)....and those who argue if we even have a LLC....

The final kicker would be that every NHC advisory would say the forecast is essentially unchanged and in the middle of the guidance

Sorry...long couple of days!

the chance of the GFS solution of 3 us landfalls is somewhere between the chance of winning the Mega Millions and powerball jackpots in the same week and negative infinity

LMAO!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

New UKMET is in. More eastward, but still crazily west.

[MWatkins]

Looks like NOGAPS (almost Pensacola Landfall) and the UKMET are in pretty close agreement.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .egrr..txt

Assuming the GFDL follows the GFS with a righward move...we are going to have two distinct camps...the GFS vs. the Navy/UKMET alliance.

Almost as fun as the Olympics, no?

Hard to see the UKMET verifying though...It moves Fay 2 degrees west by 8AM today...hard to belive that is possible.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like NOGAPS (almost Pensacola Landfall) and the UKMET are in pretty close agreement.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .egrr..txt

Assuming the GFDL follows the GFS with a righward move...we are going to have two distinct camps...the GFS vs. the Navy/UKMET alliance.

Almost as fun as the Olympics, no?

Hard to see the UKMET verifying though...It moves Fay 2 degrees west by 8AM today...hard to belive that is possible.

MW

Not while moving over cuba!

[NEXRAD]

While I don't subscribe to the entirety of the ECMWF and GFS solutions, I find it amusing that they are somewhat consistent with doing some unusual movements with Fay in light of my researching some past storms today. Consider 1950's "Easy."

Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Easy_(1950)

- Jay

[Chigger_Lopez]

does anyone remember the GFS taking Fay NE before a SE florida landfall when it was supposed to travel North of the islands, and then it stalled it for a day or two as the high built back in driving it due west? Same type of scenario, just different timing and position. Could be on to something.

[Extremeweatherguy]

While I don't subscribe to the entirety of the ECMWF and GFS solutions, I find it amusing that they are somewhat consistent with doing some unusual movements with Fay in light of my researching some past storms today. Consider 1950's "Easy."

Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Easy_(1950)

- Jay

Easy = Back in the days when Tampa didn't luck out as often ( http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png ). It would be horrible if we ever saw another storm like that!