ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

I think they are still tracking that weak pressure system that was further west, still holding on I notice as well and should slowly get better stacked up over time I'd have thought.

The other option is it decays as a new stronger LLC develops further east but we shall see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm. Best track places this near 62.1W, but the dvorak numbers were issued with a location closer to 60W. My best guess would be that the actual center is probably somewhere in between both of those numbers (~61W).

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1145 UTC 17.9N 60.0W T1.5/1.5 92L

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

This looks more and more like a TD/Fay.

[MiamiensisWx]

Could someone chime in here and offer me some guidance as to whether or not we are going to get hit with this here in the Turks & Caicos......?

There is nothing forthcoming here in the media as to what the possible threat may be.......

Many thanks

Greels,

The system is clearly intensifying/deepening as the stronger convection enhances low level inflow. Consequently, a new LLC is likely forming near 18.0 N 61.2 W per visible satellite imagery. Based on available data, this system may become TS Fay as it moves just north of due west across the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Based on H5-H85 streamline analysis, my best estimate is that the track may skirt the NE coast of Hispaniola and pass SW of the Turks and Caicos Islands. However, you will definitely experience the effects. Depending on negative interactions with Hispaniola (via subsidence) and its effects on any inner core, the intensity would vary significantly. However, conditions will be quite favorable for intensification over the Bahamas and near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Personally, I believe a moderate/strong TS passing just SW of the Turks and Caicos is very possible; regardless, you should be prepared.

Miami (note that this is not official information from the NHC and other pertinent agencies)

Bump for greels

[wxman57]

Looking at the High Resolution loop it looks like the LLC is located at 18N 61W... comments welcome....

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-60.0

To be honest, it is difficult to tell. One thing is for certain is that convection is exploding right now. If you are correct with the center estimate, recon may have a surprise or two for us later.

12Z initialization was west at 62W, west of the convection. There are a number of surface obs in that area, all reporting either calm wind or 5-10 kts from various directions. No evidence of any significant LLC. Maybe a weak low with very light winds around it. All significant winds are to the east in the squalls. But it's likely an LLC will eventually relocate closer to the convection today.

As for the potential track, guidance has trended farther east with the northward turn in the Bahamas. But steering currents will be very weak at that time. I wouldn't rule out a possible impact in south Florida early next week, but I'm not forecasting it now. Confidence in the timing of that northerly turn is on the low side.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like we have a low closing and I would place that center near 18N 62W just to the west of the latest deep convection moving West pretty quickly.

[dixiebreeze]

Will this go straight to TS:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

[x-y-no]

This certainly is an extraordinary satellite presentation for something that clearly doesn't have its act together at the surface yet. Really great practice for amateurs like me.

[MiamiensisWx]

Ugh... plane should have been scheduled earlier. I agree that a defined LLC is not present, but it is currently gradually reforming farther east near 61.2 W.

When the plane does arrive, the system may likely be a TD at the time, though it is clearly not a TD now.

[dixiebreeze]

Surprised no TDS has been issued this morning.

[gatorcane]

Looks to be moving due west and may even threaten Puerto Rico? I don't see any more WNW movement. That could have some huge implications on future track with the west jog I am seeing.

[cycloneye]

Looks to be moving due west and may even threaten Puerto Rico? I don't see any more WNW movement. That could have some huge implications on future track with the west jog I am seeing.

And implications in intensity if it moves thru the Greater Antilles.

[Derek Ortt]

I see nothing where the BT has the center on 1km visible imagery

[gatorcane]

So here is Floyd's track. If this thing skirts the Greater Antilles there would have to be some right turn to move it well east of florida. I just don't see that turn at this time. Better chances of 92L crashing into the Greater Antilles and maybe getting ripped apart IMHO:

[TTheriot1975]

Hello all...just because I am going back to work next week, and wont be able to be on here like I usually am, I would like to know if SETX will be in trouble at all if this storm moves west into the GOM. Any possibilities of that at all? or is it too soon to tell? Thanks...

[Lowpressure]

I see nothing where the BT has the center on 1km visible imagery

I agree, it looks to be a case of the center bouncing around a bit until it fixes itself under some deep convection later today. I never saw anything at 62 either. As pointed out, there are plenty of surfaces obs available in that area and that will help. I am thinking a good deal more north and east that the latest.

[deltadog03]

Right now just cant see a floyd track right now...Just dosn't look likely...yes that could change

[alienstorm]

The real concerning thing as we look forward is that this system is going to be heading into an area of very warm waters and moving very slowly. There is even talk that it may become stationary as steering currents will collapse. So any talk of land impact is inmature at this time. Right now it seems as Puerto Rico and the SE Bahamas are the ones to be impacted.

[msbee]

from what this thing is now starting to look like, what do you all think about what and when we should expect here in St. Maarten?
we are at 18.1,63.1
Right now everything is very hot and humid and cloudy and incredibly still.