ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[NDG]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_1.html

The LLC appears to be over land near 12 north/70 west. So no development.

Intil it moves back over water no reason to get excited.

Why are you going by old scan? Too funny!!
Just look at the radar loop from Curacao, the LLC is near 14N & 70.8W

[KWT]

Ah yeah I made the same mistake as Matt in that I didn't see that bottom part. Anyway yep radar does show a circulation a good deal further north and right in the deep convection.

[Thunder44]

Ah yeah I made the same mistake as Matt in that I didn't see that bottom part. Anyway yep radar does show a circulation a good deal further north and right in the deep convection.

Where is the link to the radar? From the ob out of Aruba, it appears to be near that area:

6am: SW wind at 5mph at pressure at 1008mb

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCA.html

[KWT]

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html

Hmmm actually not sure this has an obvious low pressure center, still looks like a broad low to me.

[NDG]

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By looking at the Curacao radar, I aproximately place the low pressure center near 14N & 70.8W, IMO this is a TD this morning, if not Cristobal.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html

Hmmm actually not sure this has an obvious low pressure center, still looks like a broad low to me.

I agree, 94L is playing its games with us. It has already burned us many times before, I'm not going to fall for it. I'm going to say no depression today, but maybe by Sunday.

[Thunder44]

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html

Hmmm actually not sure this has an obvious low pressure center, still looks like a broad low to me.

I got the loop going, but I'm not seeing any images yet.

[HURAKAN]

Station 42059 - Eastern Caribbean
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

Continuous Winds
0950 ESE ( 117 deg ) 22.7 kts
0940 ESE ( 113 deg ) 22.5 kts
0930 ESE ( 109 deg ) 23.5 kts
0920 ESE ( 104 deg ) 20.4 kts
0910 ESE ( 110 deg ) 13.2 kts
0900 ESE ( 113 deg ) 11.7 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0934 29.3 kts ESE ( 116 deg true )

[NDG]

Whether it the low pressure remains broad or not, which you have to keep in mind that the center is now approximately 200+ miles away from the radar site so is not catching as much low level vorticity, one thing for sure it is starting to get some nice inflow of southerly moisture as indicated by the radar.

[KWT]

Saying that though Matt this is the best its looked in a while IMO and its held this look for longer then before as well, I wish recon could be in there now to have a good look.

NDg, thats a real good point and one I didn't think about.

[ronjon]

This morning now looks as if 94L will finally become a tropical cyclone. 96L has moved inland decreasing any potential outflow interference and the ULL looks like it may aid to ventilate the system. Intense convection popping and concentrated. I think 94L now has the potential to be a serious threat for the GOM. Models have been pretty unanimous in showing development with a long term threat anywhere from the mexican coast, Tx, La, or even as far east as coastal MS, AL. I don't usually over hype things but this looks very bad if it gets into the GOM as a cyclone.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[KWT]

Well alot of the better models has this tracking into N.Mexico Ronjon I think thats more likely to occur unless this does become a hurricane like the GFDL forecasted last night.

We will have to wait and see what happens, it does look like its getting close now to being a TD but NHC won't upgrade with recon going in fairly soon.

[NDG]

Actually, it is actually closer to 180 miles from the radar site, that is like viewing a low pressure center located near Sarasota FL from the Miami Radar, so we are not going to see a well defined surface circulation, but I mostly came with my estimated location for the low pressure center based on where it was located last night and continuity.

[NDG]

Well alot of the better models has this tracking into N.Mexico Ronjon I think thats more likely to occur unless this does become a hurricane like the GFDL forecasted last night.

We will have to wait and see what happens, it does look like its getting close now to being a TD but NHC won't upgrade with recon going in fairly soon.

I see the very thing happen as it did with Bertha, if this system strengthens more than expected a more northward track is very likely, since ML ridging to its north will be weak, unlike '07.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This morning now looks as if 94L will finally become a tropical cyclone. 96L has moved inland decreasing any potential outflow interference and the ULL looks like it may aid to ventilate the system. Intense convection popping and concentrated. I think 94L now has the potential to be a serious threat for the GOM. Models have been pretty unanimous in showing development with a long term threat anywhere from the mexican coast, Tx, La, or even as far east as coastal MS, AL. I don't usually over hype things but this looks very bad if it gets into the GOM as a cyclone.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

It is possible once into the Gulf. But we have to be careful this invest has a history of getting us up in arms then bitting us. But I will say it has a 60 percent chance of become a depression or a storm throughout the next 48-72 hours.

Derek Ortt says that this doe's not have any chance of developing. He said something funny about its chances. He is a pro with great knowledge when it comes to tropical cyclones.

->quote and thoughts from Derek, "This has about as much chance of developing within the next 48 hours as a bearded lady has of winning Miss America"

[NDG]

I am glad Derek was quoted saying that,

But anyway, right about where I estimated the center to be:

[HURAKAN]

Oranjestad, Aruba, has been reporting SW winds over the past two hours.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[KWT]

Yeah NDG thats true but I just can't se eit getting strong enough to tap into the deeper steering at least till its quite a bit closer to land.
Matt, yeah I saw that post, its interesting but really its anyone guess what will happen!

[NDG]

Yeah, southerly inflow is picking up on this system.

[category5]

Matt, the NHC experts would not be giving this a 20-50% chance of development within 48 hours and waste resources by sending recon every day to investigate if they thought it had as much chance to develop as a bearded woman winning miss america. Their the best in the world at what they do and I believe their opinion is greatly valued.